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  • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

    The rest of the deaths are apparently in Gulu, Pader, and Lamwo (not shown on map).
    CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

    treyfish2004@yahoo.com

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    • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

          # 5131     Two days ago, the tentative diagnosis for the `mystery’ disease affecting parts of Uganda was announced to be pneu...


      Thursday, December 09, 2010
      OCHA: The Ugandan Outbreak By The Numbers

      # 5131

      Two days ago, the tentative diagnosis for the `mystery’ disease affecting parts of Uganda was announced to be pneumonic plague (see Uganda Outbreak Identified As Plague: Officials).

      Today, officials seem to be backing away from that diagnosis, with this story dated yesterday appearing on the New Vision website.


      Northern disease still a mystery

      Wednesday, 8th December, 2010



      By Jimmy Wokorach-Oboi
      and Taddeo Bwambale

      A new team of health experts from the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) is expected in Uganda tomorrow to intensify the fight against a mysterious illness that has hit at least six districts in northern and north-eastern Uganda.


      The team is to carry out more tests to determine the cause of the outbreak, which has claimed about 38 lives since it was first reported in November.


      CDC team leader, Jeffrey Miller yesterday said tests done at the CDC and Uganda Virus Research Institute joint laboratory in Arua district ruled out plague.


      (Continue . . . )



      While it may not solve the mystery, today we’ve a detailed map showing the locations, numbers of cases, CFR (case fatality rate), and symptomology from 3 separate locations compiled by OCHA and provided via ReliefWeb.



      You can download the entire map at the link below.

      Uganda: Un-diagnosed Disease Affected Areas & Cases - as of 06 Dec 2010


      Date: 08 Dec 2010
      Type: Complex Emergency
      Keyword(s): Epidemic; Health
      Format:
      PDF *, 423 Kb


      Source(s):
      - United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)


      Today’s map details 85 cases, and 30 fatalities [actually 84 cases, 31 deaths - alert] – from three locations; Abim, Agago, and Kitgum.

      Media reports have mentioned 38 fatalities, and more than 90 cases – but it is likely that all of the numbers we’ve seen are either incomplete or several days out of date.

      While the symptoms are diverse and confusing, some form of hemorrhage is being reported in the majority of cases to date.

      You can also see considerable differences in symptomology between locations.

      With no definitive diagnosis or test, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that some of those differences might be attributable to patients with some other illness being lumped into the `mystery disease’ group.

      Outbreak reports, particularly from remote areas with limited resources, often contain a good deal of ambiguity.


      Maps like these give us a unique view of the spread, and impact, of an outbreak. We shall obviously await the outcome of the CDC’s testing with considerable interest.

      Comment


      • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

        A little quick math:

        If Abim, Kitgum, and Agago have had (up to a certain point) 31 deaths in 84 cases, and the total (up to that point) for all regions was 38 deaths in 91 cases, then all seven reported cases outside those three mentioned regions were fatal. Gulu, in particular (Teryfish's post) seems to be 2 fatal cases, imported from Kitgum (Denmark link), with onset around the 1st, and death on or before the 5th.

        There may thus be other unreported non-fatal cases in Gulu, Pader, and Lamwo.

        Comment


        • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

          The CFR graph in this link is interesting. If the treatment is working, wouldn't the CFR drop daily? (unfortunate the time grid is so short)

          Another note, the reported signs graph does not represent any complaint of cough or respiratory illness.

          Is the report of new cases accurate and/or is information being withheld?

          Is there a timeline of reported cases and location?

          Comment


          • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

            no reports of buboes ?



            Bubonic Plague Suspected as Cause of Ugandan Outbreak That Has Killed 38


            <CITE class=byline>By Fred Ojambo -<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>document.write(dateFormat(new Date(1291911247000),"mmm d, yyyy h:MM TT Z"));</SCRIPT> Dec 9, 2010 11:14 AM ET <NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></CITE>
            CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

            treyfish2004@yahoo.com

            Comment


            • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

              Bubonic..Pneumonic..Polyphonic...
              Chronomonic.. Ebolamonic...unknownabonic
              CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

              treyfish2004@yahoo.com

              Comment


              • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                Originally posted by curiosity View Post
                The CFR graph in this link is interesting. If the treatment is working, wouldn't the CFR drop daily? (unfortunate the time grid is so short)

                Another note, the reported signs graph does not represent any complaint of cough or respiratory illness.

                Is the report of new cases accurate and/or is information being withheld?

                Is there a timeline of reported cases and location?
                I agree. No cough, no respiratory illness. No pneumonia. The report was likely accurate as of the time it was filed and all the information available at that time.

                The CFR graph determines only the ratios of deaths to cases. If new deaths decline (due to treatment) but new cases do too (due to quarantines), the CFR might stay steady. Alternatively, you might be right - the treatment might not be working.

                As far as a timeline, no official one has been published, but you can construct one from this thread:

                Late October - Outbreak starts in Abim.

                November 8-10 - Outbreak noticed in Agago.

                November 15 - This thread starts. 20 cases, 8 deaths in Abim, Five fatalities in Agago (no case count available).

                November 22 - Another death in Abim likely (so that the two deaths in Agago below make 16).

                November 24 - Two more deaths in Agago, for a total of seven, with 10 total cases.

                November 25 - 25 total cases in Agago (from Monitor picture article).

                November 26 - At least 32 total cases (likely in Agago alone?).

                November 29 - Report of HCW at Kalongo in Agago contracting the disease after being vomitted on (no clue as to her current status). Report of spread to Kitgum with at least five deaths already, including one who had arrived from Agago a week earlier.

                December 1 - Report of first case in Gulu, imported from Kitgum. At least 60 cases total (likely more), with at least 22 total deaths (9 Abim, 8 Agago, 5 Kitgum), proably more.

                December 3 - At least 26 deaths so far (10 Abim, 8 Agago, 8 Kitgum). Second case in Gulu, also from Kitgum.

                December 4 - First report of illness in Pader and Lamwo. 70 year old man dies in Kitgum, death #9 there.

                December 5 - Case count reaches 91 with 38 deaths (the amount on the most current report. Abim is now at 12 deaths, Agago 10, Kitgum still 9. Both cases in Gulu have already died, no evidence of illness in their HCW contacts in Gulu.

                December 6 - Single unconfirmed, possibly errant, report from the LRW charity of 80 total deaths (post #56 of this thread). Official numbers released. Media report in New Vision of a tenth death in Kitgum.

                It does appear from this that, if the spread is primarily H2H (which it may or may not be), the incubation period is fairly short (less than a week, possibly only 1-4 days).
                Last edited by alert; December 9, 2010, 06:55 PM. Reason: update

                Comment


                • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                  informative video from a science classroom

                  Bubonic <!-- google_ad_section_start(name=default) --> <H2 class=date-header>Sunday, December 5, 2010</H2>Plague Video




                  Click Here to watch the moviehttp://mrforde.blogspot.com/2010/12/...gue-video.html
                  CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                  treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                  Comment


                  • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                    Thank You for the information!

                    Comment


                    • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                      Deadly plague kills 38 in Northern Ugandahttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vqmr-...layer_embedded#!

                      http://www.ntvuganda.co.ug/
                      CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                      treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                      Comment


                      • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                        Kitgum patients demonstrate over neglect



                        <!-- END starRating.tag -->

                        <!-- Video added to the Media Field-->By Stephen Komakech <FORM id=emailForm_email_author method=post action=/page/email_author/DailyMonitor/News/National/-/688334/1069630/-/view/emailForm/-/bnmiih/-/index.html>Posted Friday, December 10 2010 at 00:00</FORM>



                        Kitgum District witnessed bravery of another kind when on Wednesday morning patients took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the services of the government hospital?s Outpatient Department.
                        The patients said they have been abandoned by health workers, yet they have nowhere else to turn to for medical assistance.
                        With some of them struggling to contain violent fits of coughs, others crying, struggling to talk and move, the patients portrayed a sullen atmosphere.


                        At the office of the Residence District Commissioner, they said since Thursday, the OPD ward has been closed.
                        They complained that in the past six days, health workers assigned to the OPD ward have been absconding fromduty, leaving patients go without diagnosis and treatment.
                        Mr Alfred Akubo, the hospital?s administrator in-charge of clinical officers, admitted there was negligence, especially in the OPD.

                        He said on the day the patients demonstrated, three staff were scheduled for duty but none of them turned up.
                        Moris Ocan, a resident, said the hospital is built around the medical superintendent, Dr Alex Layoo, in whose absence staff do not perform as expected of them.
                        Dr Layoo has reportedly been out of the country since last weekhttp://www.monitor.co.ug/News/Nation...z/-/index.html
                        CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                        treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                        Comment


                        • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                          Originally posted by Treyfish View Post
                          Kitgum patients demonstrate over neglect



                          <!-- END starRating.tag -->

                          <!-- Video added to the Media Field-->By Stephen Komakech <FORM id=emailForm_email_author method=post action=/page/email_author/DailyMonitor/News/National/-/688334/1069630/-/view/emailForm/-/bnmiih/-/index.html>Posted Friday, December 10 2010 at 00:00</FORM>



                          Kitgum District witnessed bravery of another kind when on Wednesday morning patients took to the streets to express their dissatisfaction with the services of the government hospital’s Outpatient Department.
                          The patients said they have been abandoned by health workers, yet they have nowhere else to turn to for medical assistance.
                          With some of them struggling to contain violent fits of coughs, others crying, struggling to talk and move, the patients portrayed a sullen atmosphere.


                          At the office of the Residence District Commissioner, they said since Thursday, the OPD ward has been closed.
                          They complained that in the past six days, health workers assigned to the OPD ward have been absconding fromduty, leaving patients go without diagnosis and treatment.
                          Mr Alfred Akubo, the hospital’s administrator in-charge of clinical officers, admitted there was negligence, especially in the OPD.

                          He said on the day the patients demonstrated, three staff were scheduled for duty but none of them turned up.
                          Moris Ocan, a resident, said the hospital is built around the medical superintendent, Dr Alex Layoo, in whose absence staff do not perform as expected of them.
                          Dr Layoo has reportedly been out of the country since last weekhttp://www.monitor.co.ug/News/Nation...z/-/index.html
                          Not a good health situation, but those are not the "mystery illness" patients. The OPD is the outpatient department; the mystery illness patients would be in isolation. Perhaps the HCW are not showing up for work due to fear of the mystery illness, however, not merely out of negligence.

                          There is a lot of malaria, respiratory, and diarrheal illness in Northern Uganda, even before this outbreak hit, and the health care system in places is apparently not so good.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                            Hmm. These patients are the outpatients, presumably those with long term illness or similar, and the statement is that this department has been closed. The concern here is that any new cases will not be detected, giving this illness further opportunity to spread.

                            It would be reassuring if there was an accurate update statement on the situation from say WHO or similar. I thought medical teams had been sent?

                            Comment


                            • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                              It would be reassuring if there was an accurate update statement on the situation from say WHO or similar.
                              CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                              treyfish2004@yahoo.com

                              Comment


                              • Re: Uganda: Hemorrhagic fever outbreak- 38 dead, 91 ill- officials say pneumonic plague or pneumonia

                                Uganda WHO Country Office http://www.afro.who.int/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1057& Itemid=2020
                                CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                                treyfish2004@yahoo.com

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