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Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

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  • #16
    Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

    Originally posted by blacknail View Post
    98% of patients develop Ebola within 42 days of Ebola, not 100% in 21 days? Are they sure that the small percentage that develop infection after the 21 day period that has been widely accepted weren't infected from a latent or other source than they are assuming?
    The PLOS study explains the infections beyond the 21 days...."although this may vary with the presence of asymptomatic cases and R0."...

    .
    "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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    • #17
      Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

      Originally posted by JJackson View Post
      .....Re the title of this thread if you follow the link and expand figure 3 you will see a graph for "Time between Exposure and Disease Onset" which peaks at 8 days and has a mean of 11. The interesting bit is the long tail.
      [ATTACH]18283[/ATTACH]
      the tail in Figure 3, Panel E, surprises me more. It shows the number of infected people from a single index case - with disease onset starting after 21 days for 11 people. Some as long as over 40 days!

      .
      "The next major advancement in the health of American people will be determined by what the individual is willing to do for himself"-- John Knowles, Former President of the Rockefeller Foundation

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      • #18
        Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

        Originally posted by Amish Country View Post
        ?Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95 percent of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of one to 21 days; 98 percent have an incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval?
        In other words, 3% have an incubation period of 22 to 42 days. What about the remaining 2% that are apparently even longer??

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        • #19
          Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

          The plos study highlights that shorter incubation periods are observed where there has been needlestick exposures or blood exposures, but that longer incubation periods are observed from direct contact.

          What if an individual exposed to a low level of virus has an immune system that recognises the virus sufficiently to fight it early in the infection, but not clear it from their systems, so are carrying virus at low levels in their blood for a protracted period.

          If a seperate health issue then occurs e.g. malaria, that further challenges their immune system, ebola then gets the upper hand and develops into full blown disease, leading to an abnormally long incubation period?

          More information is needed on these outlier cases to get beyond speculation.

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          • #20
            Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

            Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
            If a seperate health issue then occurs e.g. malaria, that further challenges their immune system, ebola then gets the upper hand and develops into full blown disease, leading to an abnormally long incubation period?
            There was the case of a nurse in Nigeria, who contracted a case of Malaria in addition to Ebola. She recovered from both diseases.



            I suspect the secondary infection may cause the release of additional cytokines and other danger signals that allow the immune system to recover enough to fight the virus. Malariotherapy on its own has been used in this way to fight other infectious diseases, including considerable success with spirochetes and limited success with HIV.

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