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  • Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

    WHO: Ebola 'out of control' in West Africa
    Admits some patients take longer than 21 days to show symptoms

    by Jerome R. Corsi
    October 14, 2014

    Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/who-ebola...86OK8ByG92Z.99

    NEW YORK – The World Health Organization announced Tuesday that while the Ebola epidemic appears to have been stopped in Senegal and Nigeria, the disease remains “out of control” in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

    “In Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, new cases continue to explode in areas that looked like they were coming under control,” WHO said in a newly released Ebola situation update.

    “An unusual characteristic of this epidemic is a persistent cyclical pattern of gradual dips in the number of new cases, followed by sudden flare-ups,” the United Nations agency said.

    “WHO epidemiologists see no signs that the outbreaks in any of these three countries are coming under control.”

    WHO further disclosed that the incubation period for the current strain of Ebola could be longer than 21 days, meaning some people infected with the virus might not show symptoms until later than previously reported.

    “Recent studies conducted in West Africa have demonstrated that 95 percent of confirmed cases have an incubation period in the range of one to 21 days; 98 percent have an incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval,” the WHO report disclosed.

    WHO also reported being alarmed by “media reports of suspected Ebola cases imported into new countries that are said, by government officials or ministries of health, to be discarded as ‘negative’ within hours after the suspected case enters the country.”

    The U.N. agency cautioned that rapid determination of infection status is impossible, casting grave doubts on some of the official information that is being communicated to the public and the media.

    WHO recommended that the first 25 positive cases and 50 negative specimens detected by a country without a recognized national reference viral haemorrhagic fever laboratory be sent for secondary confirmatory testing to a WHO collaborating center. The centers are specialized in the safe detection – at biosafety level IV – of viral haemorrhagic fevers.

    Similarly, for countries with a national reference laboratory for viral haemorrhagic fevers, WHO recommended that initial positive cases should also be sent to a WHO collaborating center for confirmation.

    If results are concordant, laboratory results reported from the national reference laboratory would be accepted by WHO.

    Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/who-ebola...86OK8ByG92Z.99
    We were put on this earth to help and take care of one another.

  • #2
    Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

    Originally posted by Amish Country View Post
    WHO: Ebola 'out of control' in West Africa
    Admits some patients take longer than 21 days to show symptoms

    by Jerome R. Corsi
    October 14, 2014

    Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/who-ebola...86OK8ByG92Z.99

    NEW YORK ? ........

    WHO also reported being alarmed by ?media reports of suspected Ebola cases imported into new countries that are said, by government officials or ministries of health, to be discarded as ?negative? within hours after the suspected case enters the country.?

    The U.N. agency cautioned that rapid determination of infection status is impossible, casting grave doubts on some of the official information that is being communicated to the public and the media.

    WHO recommended that the first 25 positive cases and 50 negative specimens detected by a country without a recognized national reference viral haemorrhagic fever laboratory be sent for secondary confirmatory testing to a WHO collaborating center. The centers are specialized in the safe detection ? at biosafety level IV ? of viral haemorrhagic fevers.

    Similarly, for countries with a national reference laboratory for viral haemorrhagic fevers, WHO recommended that initial positive cases should also be sent to a WHO collaborating center for confirmation.

    If results are concordant, laboratory results reported from the national reference laboratory would be accepted by WHO.

    Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/who-ebola...86OK8ByG92Z.99
    Is this the full and comprehensive list of authorized laboratories?

    https://Www.who.int/car/disease/ebol...Marburg_en.pdf page 88 on.

    If it is - there aren't many! And there are quite a few countries that you would assume have the facilities to test - who don't!
    "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

      List above - South Africa, Gabon, Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, USA, Canada, France and Germany.

      A mobile lab has also been sent by WHO to Guinea. http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-to...ebola-response
      Last edited by kiwibird; October 15, 2014, 07:40 AM. Reason: Added mobile lab info
      "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

        Originally posted by kiwibird View Post
        Is this the full and comprehensive list of authorized laboratories?

        https://Www.who.int/car/disease/ebol...Marburg_en.pdf page 88 on.

        If it is - there aren't many! And there are quite a few countries that you would assume have the facilities to test - who don't!
        I suspect it depends on two factors--countries who have historically needed to test for hemorrhagic diseases (the African ones), and countries with level 4 research labs. I'm a bit surprised to see Canada in that list, but not surprised to see the US, France and Germany. When you think about what kind of things are typically studied in level 4 labs, there isn't much need for most nations to have them. France did a lot of the early research in HIV, which may explain why France is on the list.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

          The total number of operational laboratories in the three intense-transmission countries will increase to 13 in the coming weeks, as a Russian Mobile Laboratory becomes operational in Macenta, Guinea, and a Public Health England laboratory begins to provide diagnostic testing in the
          Western Rural area of Sierra Leone. At present, overall testing capacity stands at 200 samples per day in Guinea, 470 in Liberia, and 300 in Sierra Leone
          From today's WHO Roadmap update.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

            Originally posted by JJackson View Post
            From today's WHO Roadmap update.
            If we reach 10,000 cases per week in the next month, as suggested by WHO, they won't even be able to test one sample per patient at full capacity, much less a second confirmation sample and a sample to clear survivors.
            "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

              Some drones would be useful. If labs are miles away over bad roads getting samples tested takes time and the suspect patient will need to be isolated or sent home, which waste resources or increases transmission. A blood sample postal service, via drones like Amazon were developing, would reduce strain on capacity.

              Re the title of this thread if you follow the link and expand figure 3 you will see a graph for "Time between Exposure and Disease Onset" which peaks at 8 days and has a mean of 11. The interesting bit is the long tail.
              Click image for larger version

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              • #8
                Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                Here are the economics of deciding a 21 days quarantine: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/a...r-ebola-virus/ (my emphasis) - Very detailed graphs and mathematical formulas. I am not sure that in the case of Ebola one should ask beancounters: "To make use of this approach, an acceptable residual risk needs to be set. To do this, one needs to balance out the costs and benefits of quarantine and risk reduction." I find this statement horrifying. Reading the whole article makes for more hair-raising fear.

                ABSTRACT

                Background:
                21 days has been regarded as the appropriate quarantine period for holding individuals potentially exposed to Ebola Virus (EV) to reduce risk of contagion. There does not appear to be a systematic discussion of the basis for this period.

                Methods:
                The prior estimates for incubation time to EV were examined, along with data on the first 9 months of the current outbreak. These provided estimates of the distribution of incubation times.

                Results:
                A 21 day period for quarantine may result in the release of individuals with a 0.2 ? 12% risk of release prior to full opportunity for the incubation to proceed. It is suggested that a detailed cost-benefit assessment, including considering full transmission risks, needs to occur in order to determine the appropriate quarantine period for potentially exposed individuals.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                  Originally posted by JJackson View Post
                  Some drones would be useful. If labs are miles away over bad roads getting samples tested takes time and the suspect patient will need to be isolated or sent home, which waste resources or increases transmission. A blood sample postal service, via drones like Amazon were developing, would reduce strain on capacity.
                  ....
                  Yes the drone idea is attractive. I like the idea. Then I got thinking of my late hubby's passion for model airplanes and boats, and my paranoid mind started waking up. You'd need also:
                  Good weather, no wind, no rain, a perfect drone with no technical fault likely to develop, no kids shooting at it, no buzzard mistaking the drone for prey, not overflying densely populated areas.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                    This one would do. 20Kg, 4Kg payload, satnav/auto pilot, 100km/hr, 7hrs endurance and can land in a grass field. It is probably fairly rugged as they market it for boarder patrol work with a camera payload.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                      Nice - Yes it just might

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                        98% of patients develop Ebola within 42 days of Ebola, not 100% in 21 days? Are they sure that the small percentage that develop infection after the 21 day period that has been widely accepted weren't infected from a latent or other source than they are assuming?

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                        • #13
                          Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                          This one would do. 20Kg, 4Kg payload, satnav/auto pilot, 100km/hr, 7hrs endurance and can land in a grass field. It is probably fairly rugged as they market it for boarder patrol work with a camera payload.
                          http://www.barnardmicrosystems.com/inview/features.html
                          Google has a drone delivery system that is quite developed - question is, is it ready enough for use? Would be one heck of a field test..

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                            Originally posted by blacknail View Post
                            98% of patients develop Ebola within 42 days of Ebola, not 100% in 21 days? Are they sure that the small percentage that develop infection after the 21 day period that has been widely accepted weren't infected from a latent or other source than they are assuming?
                            There's some evidence for up to 25 days, and there's always a very long tail for these things: "If the risk of new cases is to be reduced to 1% then 25 days should be used when investigating the source of an outbreak, when determining the duration of surveillance for contacts, and when declaring the end of an outbreak."



                            The difference between 42 (2*21) and 50 (2*25) days is massive in terms of surveillance/quarantine efforts....

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                            • #15
                              Re: Ebola, WHO - " incubation period that falls within the one to 42 day interval"

                              as_medical_personnel_and_public_health_officials_are_responding_to_the_first_reported_cases_of_ebola_virus_in_the_united_states_many_of_the_safety_and_treatment_procedures_for_treating_the_virus_and_preventing_its_spread_are_being_reexamined_one_of_the_tenets_for_minimizing_the_risk_of_spreading_the_disease_has_been_a_21day_quarantine_period_for_individuals_who_might_have_been_exposed_to_the


                              Drexel study questions 21-day quarantine period for Ebola

                              But a new study by Charles Haas, PhD, a professor in Drexel's College of Engineering, suggests that 21 days might not be enough to completely prevent spread of the virus.
                              [...]

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