Sri Lanka: 2017 Dengue

[Ronan Kelly]

Updated to December 22

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,577 (+244) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,670 (+4,789) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 5,880 (+5,880)

Total: 180,988 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.41% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.21% in 2014 to 0.18% in 2015 and a preliminary 0.14% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 253 and 1,176 fatal cases so far in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year

[Ronan Kelly]

Updated to December 29 an increase of 2,247 cases in 7 days.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,587 (+10) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,804 (+134) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 7,983 (+2,103) (Highest December ever)

Total: 183,235 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.40% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.20% in 2014 to 0.19% in 2015 and 0.17% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 311 and 1,191 fatal cases so far in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year (0.17%)
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year (0.19%)
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year (0.20%)
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year (0.28%)
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.) (0.40-0.59%)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year (0.61%)
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year (0.72%)
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year (1.01%)

[Ronan Kelly]

Updated figures for 2017.

http://www.epid.gov.lk/web/index.php...d=448&lang=en#

Jan: 10,927 (-) (Highest January ever)
Feb: 8,724 (-) (Highest February ever)
Mar: 13,540 (-) (Highest March ever)
Apr: 12,510 (-) (Highest April ever)
May: 15,936 (-) (Highest May ever)
June: 25,319 (-) (Highest June ever)
July: 41,121 (-) (Highest month on record)
Aug: 22,270 (-) (Highest August ever)
Sep: 9,514 (-) (Highest September ever)
Oct: 6,603 (+16) (Highest October ever)
Nov: 8,827(+23) (Highest November ever)
Dec: 10,397 (+2,414) (Highest December ever)

Total: 185,688 (Highest year ever)

The Epidemiology Unit no longer reports fatalities. Official %cfr over the past few years has decreased from 0.65% in 2010 to 0.61% in 2011 to 0.40% in 2012 to 0.28% in 2013 to 0.20% in 2014 to 0.19% in 2015 and 0.17% in 2016. This would allow an estimate of between 315 and 1,206 fatal cases in 2017. 421 fatalities from 180,939 cases (cfr 0.23%) have been reported in the media to December 23.

Comparison to Previous Years
2016: 55,150 cases, 91 fatalities for Full Year (0.17%)
2015: 29,777 cases, 56 fatalities for Full Year (0.19%)
2014: 47,502 cases, 97 fatalities for Full Year (0.20%)
2013: 32,063 cases, 89 fatalities for Full Year (0.28%)
2012: 44,461 cases, (fatality figures are untrustworthy; 264 on Dec 12th 2012 to 220 by Dec 21st to 200 by Jan 31st 2017 to 178 officially.) (0.40-0.59%)
2011: 28,473 cases, 173 fatalities for Full Year (0.61%)
2010: 34,188 cases, 246 fatalities for Full Year (0.72%)
2009: 33,081 cases, 334 fatalities for Full Year (1.01%)

[Ronan Kelly]

The unprecedented magnitude of the 2017 dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka provides lessons for future mosquito-borne infection control and prevention
Shahid Ali1, Abdul Waheed Khan'Correspondence information about the author Abdul Waheed Khan1,Email the author Abdul Waheed Khan, Andrew W. Taylor-Robinson, Muhammad Adnan, Shahana Malik, Saba Gul
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idh.2018.02.004

Highlights
?Since the start of 2017 Sri Lanka has been confronted by a devastating dengue outbreak.
?The outbreak has broken national records for morbidity from dengue infection.
?An environment conducive to mosquito population growth is escalating the crisis.
?Establishment of an effective control strategy is a major public health need.

Abstract
Background
The outbreak of dengue during 2017 in Sri Lanka is the worst incidence of this mosquito-borne virus infection in the South Asian country since records began.

Methods
In this retrospective study, up to the end of December 2017 over 185,000 clinical cases were reported from all regions of the island nation.

Results
This crisis placed an overwhelming burden on Sri Lanka?s public health system and also had a significant negative impact on its economy.

Conclusions
The unsurpassed level of morbidity and mortality has highlighted the pressing need for an effective operational plan to both manage the existing outbreak and to reduce the threat of a future episode of disease. This should involve an integrated nationwide program of vector surveillance and control, tertiary care of severely affected individuals and the implementation of measures to prevent future infections, including widespread vaccination.

http://www.idhjournal.com.au/article/S2468-0451(18)30021-X/fulltext