Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

[Twall]

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Twall @ Post #13:



Could they have been H1N1? Did they receive Tamiflu? This we will never know.

no i don't think so as i have looked at this information from prior to the start of H1N1 and some other older reports also support a much higher number of suspect case sampling on a monthly basis going back a couple of years.

9500 suspect cases were already recorded prior to H1N1! over the proceeding three year period which gives you a average of 263 per month even though no tracking or detection system was in place during early 2006 this clearly indicates the numbers would be higher if i could discover the early data it would help.its also indicative of another endemic flu strain on a year round basis which also presents in humans a very similar fashion to h5n1.

yes some of them may have been H1N1 during the recent flu season or even unreported completely (cases of h5n1) due to the practice of treat then test only when or if the case presented in way which could be critical or was in a high risk group for H1N1.

two days ago my sons class room had 16 absences from 26 students what he described was and is most likely flu..also my wife tells me her classroom had five sick on the same day with what looked like flu to her.

[Commonground]

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Thanks Twall for all your research, we are all very lucky to have a boots on the ground member here at FT's, and I know that I certainly appreciate it. Like you said, you have a 365-day flu season in Egypt.

[Twall]

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

Thursday, 25 March 2010
Bird flu death toll rises to 33

A 4-year-old kid died of bird flu in Bani Swief on Wednesday 24/3/2010, bringing the number of fatalities of the H5N1 virus to 33, Health Ministry said.

The ministry stated that this is the sixth case this year.

The child contracted the virus on March 18 and checked into hospital while suffering Pneumonia, the ministry said.

The ministry stated that the 107th case has been reported in Egypt's governorate of Bani Swief. The avian flu was first detected in Egypt in 2006.

http://www.sis.gov.eg/en/Story.aspx?sid=47376

[Twall]

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

another new report which is dated for the 25Th of march, it includes two days worth of new suspect cases.the report adds six new suspect cases

the daily average new suspect number is 2.2 thru the 25th which gives us a positive to suspect case ratio of 1/18

the current suspect case total is 11,565

the first three governorates which are in bold are new suspect cases from the 24Th of march

the Cairo governorate adds two new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 1,301 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate.

the Alexandria governorate adds one new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 929 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate.

the Luxor governorate adds two new suspect cases to its tally which brings the total for this governorate to 34 all other statistics remain unchanged for this governorate this governorate shows 1 previous death.

the statistics for the governorate number 06 Minya Governorate (Arabic: محافظة المنيا) are as follow based on the mohp report and are cumulative total's since 2006

the governorate added one new suspect case for the 25th march which increased the total to 547 the report list 6 positive cases total.with 1 fatality shown along with a single case of recovery.

[Twall]

Re: Egypt - Child, 4, Case # 107 Bird Flu, H5N1 Died

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152975

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152994

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152993

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152989

http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/2/obd?idOutbreak=152990

it also has information for cases of human infections with locations.




Egypt shows seventy eight total avian/human positive cases for the month of march alone. the first twenty four pages have roughly 230 items for Egypt during 2010 alone my search was for Africa avian/human http://empres-i.fao.org/empres-i/home?p=a&l=en_US

has map Lat/Long for some of the recent reported cases from many locations around the world

it looks like the march information which is public to date, gives us an general ideal of the number of positive poultry cases that are related to or are needed to produce another positive human case by some form of dispersal pp19.5 = 1ph

the February numbers show pp14.7 = 1ph the total poultry infections during this month were about 115, with 8 human cases confirmed.