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Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009 - April 9, 2009

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  • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

    Originally posted by Drew View Post
    Let's remember, it's Dr. niman, and Dr. niman only, who is putting the "mild- spin" on things. To conclude that the last two toddlers are infected with a new "mild" strain, that is spreading none the less, is an enormous leap, or a spin of some sort. The toddlers contracted h5n1 because they were playing (or somehow came in contact) with dead fowl. Nothing more, nothing less. Since we have a couple toddlers infected back to back, Dr. Niman is simply playing the "toddler-card", since everybody is aware that pandemics strike the young. He knows it, and he is playing it up. What does it matter since nobody will remember his claims next week?

    We should start another Egypt thread since this one has become less accurate with the wild speculation mixed in.


    Drew
    Although the above comments are well into the nonsense category and ignore data that is well into the obvious category, it is worth reviewing the recent data in Egypt, since these developments may be among the most important to date with regard to a catastrophic H5N1 pandemic.

    The recent cases (including those from the beginning of 2009) are described in detail here
    http://www.saidr.org/en/humans.php

    These description are from the MOHP in Egypt and cover the confirmed cases. As of this morning, the two most recent cases (#61 and #62 from Beheira) have not been added, but media reports indicate both are toddlers, and their conditions suggest that like almost all cases in 2009, these two H5N1 cases are mild.

    The toddler classification is straightforward because each description begins with age and gender and 10 of the 11 cases in 2009 are toddlers. This is far from the "normal" in Egypt or anywhere else, where most victims are teenagers or young adults. In Egypt, prior to 2009 there were 51 confirmed cases, and only 6 were toddlers. This rate of about 12% was the same in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Therefore, the jump to 10/11 or more than 90% in 2009 is rather glaring, and increasingly so. The February report at the above site noted that the first 4 patients in 2009 in Egypt were toddlers, and now that the number has grown to 10/11, the trend is obvious to even the most casual observer.

    Similarly, the classification of these patients as "mild" is also straight forward. Of the 11 cases in 2009, only one patient was initially listed as "critical" and in need of a respirator. However, since that patient was admitted on April 1, and the last confirmed fatality was in 2008, it is almost certain that the one critical patient has recovered, and the number of H5N1 confirmed patients that are discharged will be 11, giving a case fatality rate of ZERO.

    However, the "mild" classification goes well beyond recovery and discharge. Most of these patients develop symptoms on day 1, are hospitalized and started on Tamiflu on day 2, and are confirmed on day 4. An official announcement immediately follows and by day 4/5 it is already clear that the case is "mild". The only adult confirmed this year was actually symptom free by day four, while the others have been described as in "good" general health or "stable". These reports have not hinted that the patient developed pneumonia, was placed on a respirator, or was ever classified as "critical".

    Thus, 10/11 patients in 2009 were toddlers, 10/11 had a "mild" infection, and 11/11 have or will recover from the infection.

    This situation is also noteworthy, because there are zero children (age 3-10) infected, who made up the vast majority of cases in the spring of 2007, when 16/17 recovered, and zero female teenagers / young adults, who have made up the majority of cases, excluding cases for 2009 or the spring of 2007. This teenage/young adult group contains the vast majority of the 23 fatalities.

    Thus, none of the two major groups infected prior to 2009 have been reported this year, while the frequency of toddler cases rose almost 10 fold.

    This new demographic is not explained by a sudden increase in toddler exposure to H5N1, and is most easily explained by protective immunity (either against H5N1 or cross protective immunity due to exposure of H1N1).

    Thus, the new demographic (mild H5N1 in toddlers) is well into the GLARING category, as well as a cause for concern, especially if the protection is from prior exposure to H5N1.

    Comment


    • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

      Originally posted by Drew View Post
      Let's remember, it's Dr. niman, and Dr. niman only, who is putting the "mild- spin" on things. To conclude that the last two toddlers are infected with a new "mild" strain, that is spreading none the less, is an enormous leap, or a spin of some sort. The toddlers contracted h5n1 because they were playing (or somehow came in contact) with dead fowl. Nothing more, nothing less. Since we have a couple toddlers infected back to back, Dr. Niman is simply playing the "toddler-card", since everybody is aware that pandemics strike the young. He knows it, and he is playing it up. What does it matter since nobody will remember his claims next week?

      We should start another Egypt thread since this one has become less accurate with the wild speculation mixed in.


      Drew
      From February report on H5N1 in Egypt

      http://www.saidr.org/docs/pdf/ECTAD-...view2009_2.pdf

      In February, 2009 the Egyptian health authorities confirmed two new human cases of HPAI H5N1. The first case was of an 18-month-old-boy from Maghagha District on Minya Governorate who is now in stable/good health after being hospitalized a day after manifesting symptoms suggestive of HPAI Infection on 6 February.

      The other case was a 2-year-old boy from Ganain District, Suez Governorate, who first showed symptoms suumbleble to HPAI H5N1 infection on 2 February and was admitted to the hospital the next day. He is now in stable condition.

      Remarkably, all 4 cases of HPAI H5N1 influenza recorded so far this year have been children between 1-2 years of age. The total number of HPAI H5N1 infected people in Egypt by the end of February 2009 reached 55 of which 23 died.

      Comment


      • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

        Officials said he did not concern the spread of the disease Village
        Official bird flu injured relatives and neighbors

        الأحد، 5 أبريل 2009 - 11:22
        Sunday, April 5, 2009 - 11:22
        المريضان يبلغ عمرهما عامين وعاما و9 أشهر
        Patients aged two years and years and 9 months
        <!-- AddThis Button BEGIN --><SCRIPT type=text/javascript>var addthis_pub="tonyawad";</SCRIPT><SCRIPT type=text/javascript src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/200/addthis_widget.js"></SCRIPT> <!-- AddThis Button END -->
        ف
        A Magdy Attallah Al-Chief of the Unit for the local center town of Badr in Beheira, the 61 cases and 62 of the bird-flu-affected children, Mohamed El-Shahat Mohamed Hassan Amer, two years, and Jamil Hassan Mohamed Hassan Amer, years and 9 months, with two children and live in adjacent houses and there is no is reason for concern about the spread of the disease in the village,

        pointing out that the discovery of the No. 62 came in the wake of the Committee of Five, consisting of health and veterinary medicine and the environment, security and the local unit to clean the child's home as soon as infection is suspected in the case 61, and suspected in 62 cases the situation has been booked Bhmyat revealed Damanhour analysis of HIV infection.
        And Dr. Mahmoud Farid Director of the Directorate of Veterinary Medicine Lake, it was clear the area and that work is underway in the villages neighboring the region, pointing out that the situation is stable and there is no danger of the spread of the disease.

        http://translate.google.com/translat...r%26start%3D20
        CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

        treyfish2004@yahoo.com

        Comment


        • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

          Originally posted by Treyfish View Post
          Officials said he did not concern the spread of the disease Village
          Official bird flu injured relatives and neighbors

          الأحد، 5 أبريل 2009 - 11:22
          Sunday, April 5, 2009 - 11:22
          المريضان يبلغ عمرهما عامين وعاما و9 أشهر
          Patients aged two years and years and 9 months
          <!-- AddThis Button BEGIN --><script type="text/javascript">var addthis_pub="tonyawad";</script><script type="text/javascript" src="http://s7.addthis.com/js/200/addthis_widget.js"></script> <!-- AddThis Button END -->
          ف
          A Magdy Attallah Al-Chief of the Unit for the local center town of Badr in Beheira, the 61 cases and 62 of the bird-flu-affected children, Mohamed El-Shahat Mohamed Hassan Amer, two years, and Jamil Hassan Mohamed Hassan Amer, years and 9 months, with two children and live in adjacent houses and there is no is reason for concern about the spread of the disease in the village,

          pointing out that the discovery of the No. 62 came in the wake of the Committee of Five, consisting of health and veterinary medicine and the environment, security and the local unit to clean the child's home as soon as infection is suspected in the case 61, and suspected in 62 cases the situation has been booked Bhmyat revealed Damanhour analysis of HIV infection.



          http://tinyurl.com/dmkhnz

          Well beyond EXTREME head patting.
          Last edited by sharon sanders; April 5, 2009, 11:43 AM. Reason: made tiny url

          Comment


          • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

            Commentary

            http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04...emarkable.html

            Comment


            • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

              http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...5,1.540833&z=9

              Comment


              • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                Originally posted by ironorehopper View Post
                [WARNING: Google Raw Machine Translation from Arabic to English. Readers can found original article at this link http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesP...85&Language=ar - EDITED.]


                A spokesman of the Ministry of Health, Dr. Abdel Rahman Shahin said in a statement here today that the onset of symptoms the child was sick at his place of his injury, the lake was discovered during a visit to the house of her mother in one of the villages of Al-Menoufiya.

                ---
                Symptoms of #61 in Menoufiya + symptoms of #62 neighbor in Beheira = H2H.

                Comment


                • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                  We have no idea if this is H2H or a common environmental contagion.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                    Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                    We have no idea if this is H2H or a common environmental contagion.
                    Please. One case was infected in Menoufiya and the next door neighbor was infected in Beihera. Coincidences can only be cited a limited number of times, and H5N1 coincidences exceeded the limit many years ago.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                      I am not calling it a coincidence. I am saying we do not know.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                        Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                        I am not calling it a coincidence. I am saying we do not know.
                        I think something has been lost in the translation. The index case (confirmed case #61) was said by the MOH to have developed symptoms while visiting relatives in Menoufiya, strongly implying that the infection was NOT in Beheira (where I suspect there is a MISSING poultry connection). However, a few days later the toddler NEXT DOOR to the index case's house in Beheira develops symptoms and is confirmed as case #62.

                        Therefore, to do some hand waving suggesting that some environment contageon is responsible would require that the contageon is in Menoifiya and Beheira and caused an H5N1 infection in Menofiaya and coincidentally infected the index case's neighbor in Beheira a few days later would be a difficult sell.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                          Egyptian boy contracts bird flu

                          <CITE class=caption>AFP/File – Chickens sit in a farm near Jamasa city, 170 kms north of Cairo. A six-year-old boy has contracted bird … </CITE>
                          <CITE class=caption></CITE>

                          <!-- end #main-media -->
                          <!-- end .primary-media -->
                          <!-- end .related-media --><ABBR class=recenttimedate title=2009-04-05T11:25:19-0700>6 mins ago</ABBR>
                          <ABBR class=recenttimedate title=2009-04-05T11:25:19-0700></ABBR>
                          <!-- end .byline -->CAIRO (AFP) – A six-year-old boy has contracted bird flu, the 63rd recorded case since the first outbreak of the disease in Egypt in 2006 and the third in a week, the health ministry announced on Sunday.

                          Ali Mahmud Ali from Shubra al-Khaimah, north of Cairo, was hospitalised on March 28 in the Egyptian capital, ministry spokesman Abdel Rahman Shahin said, as cited by state news agency MENA.

                          The diagnosis came after about a week, he said.

                          The child is in a serious condition and is being treated with frontline anti-flu drug Tamiflu, Shahin added.

                          Hassan Gamil Hassan, 21 months old, was hospitalised on Wednesday in the northern province of Beheira with a high fever, while a two-year-old was taken to hospital in Beheira last Monday.

                          The toddler had been exposed to dead fowl thought to have been infected with the virus.

                          Twenty-three people have died of bird flu in Egypt. Most of the victims have been young girls or women, who are generally in charge of looking after poultry in rural areas.

                          The World Health Organisation (WHO) called last month for an investigation into why many of the victims have been young children.
                          Egypt hosted an international conference on bird flu in October, when Washington pledged an additional 320 million dollars to the fight against the disease amid fears it may yet escalate into a global pandemic.
                          The H5N1 strain of the virus that is most dangerous to humans first emerged in Asia in 2003 and has since caused nearly 250 deaths, according to WHO figures.

                          Scientists fear that a mutation of the bird flu virus resulting in a strain easily transmitted among humans could create a pandemic, potentially affecting up to one-fifth of the world's population.

                          http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090405...egypthealthflu
                          Last edited by AlaskaDenise; April 18, 2009, 02:15 AM. Reason: remove photo

                          Comment


                          • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                            I think # 61 and # 62 may have both been infected in Beheira from a common vector (human or poultry?) since their symptoms were apparent only 2 days apart.

                            Comment


                            • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                              Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
                              I think # 61 and # 62 may have both been infected in Beheira from a common vector (human or poultry?) since their symptoms were apparent only 2 days apart.
                              Then the visit to Menoufiya is irrelevant (but was included in the MOH statement and associated reports).

                              Comment


                              • Re: Egypt - Human Confirmed/Suspected Bird Flu Cases, Feb 8, 2009+

                                Commentary

                                http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04...a_Cluster.html

                                Comment

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