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  • EGYPT - Jan 4 - Jan 6, 2008

    Previous Egypt thread:
    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

  • #2
    Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

    Yesterday, there were between 46 - 48 suspected cases reported / 1 suspected death / 1 (or 2?) tested neg (not counted). Let me know if I've missed anything or screwed anything up -- or if you have another interpretation on any of the names or whatever. Thanks!

    SUMMARY OF CONFIRMED AND SUSPECTED CASES IN EGYPT SINCE DEC 25

    5 Confirmed cases / 4 deaths

    Oula Yunis Ali Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 25, 2007 -- Beni Haroun, Beni Suef governorate
    Attorh Hanim Ibrahim [aka Hanem Atwa Ibrahim] (50F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Shatt `Ezbet el-Lahm, Damietta governorate
    Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed (21/22F) -- Barhim near Minuf city, Al Minufiyah
    Fatma Fathi Mohamed (25F) - d. Dec 30, 2007 -- Dikirnis, Ad Daqahliyah governorate
    Firdaus Mohamed Hadad (26F) - d. Dec 31, 2007 -- Al Minufiyah governorate


    Between 60 - 63 suspected cases reported since Dec 30 / 1 death / between 10 - 16 tested neg (not counted)

    Alexandria Governorate (4)

    Dec 31 - Faten (23F)

    Jan 03 - Mahdi Abdul Aziz Mahmoud Ashour (43M?) - poultry worker - Hospital "Dietetic" Alexandria
    Jan 03 - Mohamed Mahmoud Abdel Hameed (20M) - reside Babis

    Jan 04 - Anwar Mohammed Abdul Wahid (14)


    Beheira Governorate - (6-7)

    Dec 30 - Mohamed Khalil Abdul Qawi (40M) - Ezbet "Notes", [Centre Kom Hamada] Kawm Hamadah - admitted to hospital on Dec 28 (Jan 4th report)

    Jan 04 - 1 unnamed suspected case admitted Jan 3

    Jan 04 - Reza Ibrahim Ibrahim (10M) - Bhmyat Damanhour
    Jan 04 - Unnamed woman
    Jan 04 - Unnamed woman's daughter (6 months)
    Jan 04 - Unnamed - from Blue Dawar village - Alexandria Pathogenesis Hospital
    Jan 04 - Unnamed - from Blue Dawar village - Alexandria Pathogenesis Hospital


    Beni Suef Governorate (1)

    Jan 02 - Anwar Ali Sayyad (25M) [unemployed] from Shaweesh Ahnassa village


    Cairo Governorate (1 neg?)

    NEG? - Dec 31 - Salah Eddin Mohamed Ali (43M) - d. Dec 29 - Al Amiriyah - teacher - test results on man?/birds? reported to be neg on Jan 2


    Dakahlia Governorate (14-16)

    Jan 03 - Mr. Sadr mediator (40M) - from the Centre for nitrogen
    Jan 03 - Fatma Mohammed Saeed (45F) - from Mansoura
    Jan 03 - Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman (9M) - from the village stone pillars
    Jan 03 - Imad Bader Abdul Rahman (40) - from the village stone pillars
    Jan 03 - Ibrahim Abdel Razek (50M) - from the village of Kom Derby

    Jan 04 - Mr. Alusivi doctor(?) - from the village and they Aldnanic - Mansoura Chest Hosp. [same as Mr. Sadr mediator above?]
    Jan 04 - Nima Mohammed Mahmoud Abdul Hamid - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
    Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
    Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Hamadi (13M) - son of Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
    Jan 04 - Ibrahim Abdul Aziz [same as Ibrahim Abdel Razek above?]
    Jan 04 - Nuha Mohammed Fathi - from the village Ain pomegranate, Bdkrns

    Jan 04 - Solomon Solomon Reza (2) - from the village of Gross Bbalkas - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
    Jan 04 - Hamdi Mohamed Awad (8) - from the village of Abu vulnerable Bbalkas - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
    Jan 04 - Com Mahmoud Rejab (45F) - admitted Jan 3
    Jan 04 - Mr. Omar Almqauri (13M) - student from Mansoura Street Abdel Salam - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3
    Jan 04 - "Faith" (1) - from the village of Aldnabaiq status, Mansoura - Mansoura Chest Hosp. - admitted Jan 3


    Damietta Governorate (2)

    Jan 03 - Mohamed Fathi (13) - of Damietta

    Jan 04 - 5 unnamed suspected cases admitted Jan 3

    *A report on the Egyptian government's bf website says that "The government Damitta has taken the brunt of suspected cases." But, we only have 2 listed.


    Gharbiyah/Al Gharbiyah Governorate (2 / 6-11 negatives)

    NEG - Jan 01 - Hani El-Ashry - "34 years" policeman (Ali El-Ashry per flubergasted) - from the village of Ameriya, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
    NEG - Jan 01 - Huda Khaled (1M?) [aka Hoda Khalid Saeed] - from the village of Aldoakhilih, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala

    Jan 02 - Sara Adel Aboushadi (child) from "My wedding procession" [Abo_ak_i Hospital pathogenesis Zfti]

    Jan 03 - Aida Abdul Aziz (28F?) - from the village of Al Abualli, Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
    NEG - Jan 03 - Ahmed Mohammed Salim (24M) - from "the Republic", Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
    NEG? - Jan 03 - Hatem Mohammed Jamil (52M) - Mahala - Hospital Salt Mahala
    NEG - Jan 03 - "Allegedly Saw" Mohammed Shihata (8 months F) - from the village of Mit Taha, Centre Mmas - Hospital Salt Mahala

    Jan 04 - Six negatives reported -- 5 above? + 1 ??


    Ismailia Governorate (0 / 2 negatives)

    NEG - Jan 03 - SM Ezbet - Eid of the village on Eid
    NEG - Jan 03 - Salma Ahmed Hussein - from the village of painted Daryll - high temperature and pneumonia, and headache


    Menoufiya/Al Minufiyah Governorate (11)

    Dec 30 - Nader Said Babylonian (5M) - ["Al Btanoun"] Al Batanun
    Dec 30 - Ahmad Abdul Mohsen [aka Roqayya Ahmed Abdul Mohsen] (6M) - from a village "Tnbdi hamlet" ["Kafr Tunbdi"] in Shibin Al Kawm center [Kafr Tambidi?]

    Dec 31 - Abdul Rahman Ibrahim (57M)
    Dec 31 - Abed Rabbo (50M?)
    Dec 31 - Mohammad Ferdous (36M)

    Jan 01 - Adel Mohamed Adel - from [Sers Al-Layan] Sirs al Layyanah
    Jan 01 - Doaa - daughter of Adel Mohamed Adel

    Jan 01 - Mohamed Said Abdul Rahman - from Barhim
    Jan 01 - Karim Mohamed Fawzi - from Kafr Sheikh Khalil village in Shibin Al Kawm
    Jan 01 - Hamida Abdul Hafiz Rizk - Aboukls [Abu Kullus] village in the Martyrs

    Jan 03 - "Hopes" Mr. Sabbagh (30F?) - from the village "Dkma" - Hospital Dietetic Shebin Mound

    *Note that confirmed case Nora Aboul Abbas Mohamed above is also from Barhim, Al Minufiyah.


    Minya Governorate (1)

    Jan 04 - Zakaria Reham Abdel-Fattah (16F) - resident status La Hqrani place; admitted to Hospital Dietetic Menya


    Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate (2)

    Jan 03 - "Equity" Mohamed Hammouda (32F) - homemaker - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh
    Jan 03 - Amal Ibrahim Ghraib (1?) - "Equity's" baby? - village Smjarat Barahmanih was Hdzhma - Hospital Dietetic Kafr El-Sheikh


    Qalyubia Governorate (4 or 5)

    Jan 01 - Safaa Mohamed Abdul Razek - nurse in the health unit - village of Al Alzm belonging to Shibin El Kanatar center [Shabin al Qanatir]

    Jan 02 - Mohamed Talaat Mostafa Aboualfdl (3M) - in Banha Fevers - one of the 2 (3?) mentioned below?

    Jan 03 - 2 (3?) new sus cases admitted to Banha Hosptial -- no names [also another report of 2 women being admitted to Banha Hospital]


    Qena Governorate (3)

    Jan 03 - Mohamed Khaled Adli - 4 month old child - Qena "Dietary" Hospital - high temperature

    Jan 04 - Jasmine Khaled Adli (1 1/2 F) - in hospital salt Qena - sister of Mohamed above?
    Jan 04 - Q. Mustafa Hussein (24F) - mother of Jasmine? - hospital salt Qena


    Port Said Governorate (4)

    Dec 31 - Reza Abdalmugod Abdilkadir (25M) - husband of Radwan - "Satisfaction village in south of Port Said"
    Dec 31 - Radwan - wife of Reza
    Dec 31 - Mohammed (9M) - son of Reza & Radwan
    Dec 31 - Rajab (5M) - son of Reza & Radwan


    Sharkia/Ash Sharqiyah Governorate (5 / 2 neg)

    NEG - Jan 01 - Nabil Ahmed Mohamed (8M) - from the village of Hrbit belonging to Aboukbir center

    Jan 02 - Samia el-Sayed Awad (55F)
    Jan 02 - Menah Mohamed Fathi (3F) - granddaughter of Samia

    Jan 02 - Iman Sobhi (25F)
    Jan 02 - Mohamed Maher Reda - Iman's son

    Jan 03 - Husam Muhammad (4M) - from the village centre Alkhis Abouhmad

    NEG - Jan 04 - Hisham Salah Tawfik (4) - from village of Abu Hammad Alhanis
    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

      Thank you so much Theresa42.

      I am in awe of your ability to keep these names/locations interpreted and organized.
      Separate the wheat from the chaff

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

        New family cluster of suspected cases:
        Beheira Governorate - (6-7)

        Jan 04 - Unnamed woman
        Jan 04 - Unnamed woman's daughter (6 months)
        ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

          3 or 4 Abdul Rahman's who might be a family cluster of suspected cases:
          Dakahlia Governorate (14-16)

          Jan 03 - Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman (9M) - from the village stone pillars
          Jan 03 - Imad Bader Abdul Rahman (40) - from the village stone pillars

          Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
          Jan 04 - Abdul Rahman Hamadi (13M) - son of Abdul Rahman Ali Bader - Mansoura Chest Hosp.
          ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

            Brother and sister (and mother?) suspected cases in Qena?:
            Qena Governorate (3)

            Jan 03 - Mohamed Khaled Adli - 4 month old child - Qena "Dietary" Hospital - high temperature

            Jan 04 - Jasmine Khaled Adli (1 1/2 F) - in hospital salt Qena - sister of Mohamed above?
            Jan 04 - Q. Mustafa Hussein (24F) - mother of Jasmine? - hospital salt Qena
            ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

              I posted this on the prior thread:

              An Egyptian blog is claiming there was an interview with the head of Cairo University's veterinary school in the January 2 2008 edition of an Egyptian newspaper called the Daily El-Dostor. The blog claims:

              Professor and doctor Ahmed El-Sanousy, the head of the viruses section at the faculty of Veterinary, Cairo University told the newspaper that in the last three months in 2007 the virus began to evolve and form a resistance against the vacancies like Tamflu, and this what the Namru discovered lately, it did not reach the complete evolution process which moves it from the birds to humans phase to the humans to humans
              I guess it is a safe assumption that if the H5N1 strain circulating in Egypt during last year's flu season had already developed Tamiflu resistance, this year's H5N1 would likely retain that same Tamiflu resistance.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                Why is it assumed that this year would retain some of last year?

                What is the process by which that occurs?

                Is that random?

                Is it reassortment?

                Is it recombination?

                Will the sequences expose this?

                Can the N294S randomly disappear, like random mutationists would expect to happen?

                Maybe a big reassortment will remove N294S?

                Maybe a big, impossible, recominbination will replace N294S with something less of a challenge to altamiflu?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                  Originally posted by Mike32 View Post
                  I posted this on the prior thread:



                  I guess it is a safe assumption that if the H5N1 strain circulating in Egypt during last year's flu season had already developed Tamiflu resistance, this year's H5N1 would likely retain that same Tamiflu resistance.
                  Although Tamiflu resistance was in birds last season, it was rare (the only sequences were from the Gharbiya cluster - 3 fatal case, with sequences from two and both had N294S).

                  The recent media report indicated that it was now much more common (based on the statement that it was in "some" of the four fatal cases). If true, then more N294S could have been seen in poultry isolates collected prior to the recent cases.

                  However, the blog mentions resistance to a vaccine, and Tamiflu is not a vaccine.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                    Originally posted by niman View Post
                    Although Tamiflu resistance was in birds last season, it was rare (the only sequences were from the Gharbiya cluster - 3 fatal case, with sequences from two and both had N294S).

                    The recent media report indicated that it was now much more common (based on the statement that it was in "some" of the four fatal cases). If true, then more N294S could have been seen in poultry isolates collected prior to the recent cases.

                    However, the blog mentions resistance to a vaccine, and Tamiflu is not a vac`cine.
                    Thanks Dr. Niman.

                    I have seen references to Tamiflu in Egyptian media translated as "a vaccine" twice now in the last several days. I wonder if it is a translation problem specific to Egyptian/English translations?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                      Originally posted by Mike32 View Post
                      Thanks Dr. Niman.

                      I have seen references to Tamiflu in Egyptian media translated as "a vaccine" twice now in the last several days. I wonder if it is a translation problem specific to Egyptian/English translations?
                      I haven't read the blog very thoroughly, but thought they were talking about poultry dying from bad vaccines (which of course would not be related to Tamiflu).

                      For whatever it is worth, no one in Egypt is talking. Tamiflu resistance would be a major problem, and if true it is a bit surprise no one else has picked up the story, so the situation there remains confused (and the lack of confirmed cases this week suggests the suspect cases are not testing positive).

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                        Dr. Niman you have touched on the subject that worries me considerably. Why is no one talking? Over 60 suspected cases and yet the news is as quiet as the grave. In this case H5N1 patients graves. Unless we start getting some news soon, I for one am going to suspect the real reason is the news is ALL bad.
                        Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                        Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                        Thank you,
                        Shannon Bennett

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                          Health Minister Warns of inaction in the face of bird flu
                          أعلن وزير الصحة والسكان د.حاتم الجبلى فى الكلمة التى ألقاها مدير عام الامراض المعدية بوزارة الصحة نيابة عنه د. The Minister of Health and Population d. Hatem mountain in a speech delivered by the director general of infectious diseases in the Ministry of Health Dr. behalf. عمرو قنديل فى 3 / 1 / 2008 - أمام ندوة حول "تنشيط المستجدات لعلاج حالات انفلونزا الطيور - أن المخزون الاستراتيجى من عقار "التامفلو" الخاص بعلاج مرض انفلونزا الطيور فى مصر يبلغ نحو 2.5 مليون جرعة توجد فى مخازن وزارة الصحة والسكان . Amr jellyfish 3 / 1 / 2008 - at a symposium on "Revitalization of developments for the treatment of avian influenza - that the strategic reserves of real estate" Altamflo "Special treatment of bird flu in Egypt amounts to about 2.5 million doses are in warehouses of the Ministry of Health and Population.

                          وطالب وزير الصحة والسكان بالعمل على اليقظة التامة .. He called on the Minister of Health and Population would vigilance .. محذرا من التراخى فى مواجهة المرض والعمل على سرعة الاكتشاف المبكر للحالات وتوفير العلاج المناسب لها فى الوقت المناسب ليتحقق الشفاء. He warned of complacency in the face of illness and work to speed early detection of cases and provide appropriate treatment in a timely manner to achieve healing.

                          وأشار وزير الصحة والسكان إلى أهمية دور الاعلام فى التوعية بالمرض خاصة من خلال التليفزيون حيث إن 85 فى المائة من المعلومات يحصل عليها المواطنون من التليفزيون وذلك طبقا لدراسة أجريت فى 9محافظات ..مؤكدا أهمية تكاتف الجميع وجميع الوزارات والهيئات لمواجهة المرض . The Minister of Health and Population to the importance of the role of the media in raising awareness of the disease especially through television, where 85 per cent of the information obtained by citizens of the television, according to a study conducted in 9 governorates .. He stressed the importance of concerted everyone and all ministries and departments to tackle the disease.

                          وأوضح أن الخط الساخن رقم ( 105 ) لغرفة العمليات الوقائية بوزارة الصحة عليه 45 خطا ويعمل على مدار 24 ساعة لتلقى الاستفسارات والمعلومات حول مرض انفلونزا الطيور. The hotline number (105) of the Chamber of preventive operations by the Ministry of Health, 45 fouls operates 24 hours to receive inquiries and information about bird flu.

                          وقال وزير الصحة والسكان إن الحالات المشتبه فيها تستقبلها مستشفيات الصدر والحميات والمشتشفيات العامة فى جميع محافظات الجمهورية والحالات التى تظهر نتائج التحاليل إيجابيتها يتم تحويلها لاستكمال العلاج بعقار "التامفلو" فى مستشفى الصدر العباسية بالنسبة للكبار ومستشفى منشية البكرى للاطفال. The Minister of Health and Population to suspected cases received at hospitals chest and dietary and Alm_i_viac in all governorates of the Republic, where tests show positive results to be transferred to complete treatment real estate "Altamflo" in a hospital in Sadr Abbasid for adults and Alfei Bakry Hospital for children.

                          وأضاف أن المعامل المركزية لوزارة الصحة قادرة على عمل التحاليل للازمة لجميع الحالات المشتبه فى اصابتها ..موضحا انه يتم حاليا عمل تشغيل تجريبى لمعمل بالاسكندرية وانشاء معمل آخر فى المنيا لمواجهة أى توقعات فى المستقبل . He added that the central laboratories of the Ministry of Health able to work analyses of the crisis for all suspected cases in her .. explaining that it is currently working operation of a pilot plant for Alexandria and the creation of another plant in Menya to cope with the expectations in the future.

                          وأكد الدكتور حاتم الجبلى ضرورة عدم الخوف من الابلاغ عن الطيور النافقة وعن ظهور الاصابات نتيجة لمخالطة الطيور المصابة لأن الاكتشاف المبكر للحالات سيكون له اهمية كبيرة فى الشفاء . Dr. Hatem mountain need not fear of reporting dead birds and the emergence of infections due to contact with infected birds because early detection of cases will have a great importance in the recovery.

                          ومن ناحية أخري أكد مستشار وزير الصحة واستاذ امراض الصدر د. On the other hand, adviser to the Minister of Health and professor of chest diseases d. عادل خطاب انه لم يحدث أى تحور للفيروس وأن ما أثير حول هذا الموضوع لا أساس له من الصحة وان الحالات تستجيب لعقار التامفلو ..مشيرا إلى أن الخمس حالات التى اكتشفت مؤخرا لسيدات خالطن الطيور المنزلية المصابة توفيت منها أربع حالات بسبب عدم ابلاغها عن مخالطتها للطيور المنزلية المصابةوالحالة الخامسة شفيت وسوف تخرج من مستشفى صدر العباسية اليوم حيث انها ابلغت عن تعاملها مع الطيور المنزلية المصابة وتم توفير العلاج اللازم لها فى الوقت المناسب. Just speech he never alter any of the virus and raised on this topic is unfounded and that the cases respond to the real estate Altamflo .. He pointed out that the five cases that were recently discovered to women Khaltun household infected birds died, including four cases due to lack of reporting of bird Mkhalttha home Almassabhoalhalh fifth recovered and will come out of hospital issued Abbasid today as they reported their dealings with infected domestic birds were provided necessary treatment in a timely manner.

                          وأوضح أن عدد الاصابات منذ ظهور المرض فى مصر فى مارس 2006 بلغ حتى الآن 43 حالة توفيت منها 19 حالة ..مشيرا إلى انه من بين هذه الحالات 20 طفلا توفى منهم اثنين ، و 4 رجال توفى واحد و19 سيدة توفى 16 منهن بسسب مخالطتهن المباشرة للطيور المنزلية المصابة. The number of casualties since the emergence of the disease in Egypt in March 2006 now stands at 43 cases, including 19 cases died .. He pointed out that among these cases, 20 children died of whom two died and 4 men and one woman died and 19 were 16 Mkhaltthn because of direct bird household infected.

                          وأكد أن معدلات الوفيات بين الاصابات البشرية فى مصر مازالت اقل من المعدلات العالميةوالتى تصل إلى نحو 62 فى المائة من الحالات بينما فى مصر تبلغ نحو 44 فى المائة فقط. He stressed that mortality rates among casualties in Egypt is still lower than the rates Almihualte amount to about 62 per cent of cases, while in Egypt amounted to about 44 per cent only.

                          وحذر من ان الاستمرار فى التربية المنزلية وعدم تطعيم الطيور المنزلية للخوف من دفع نفقات هى اعتقدات خاطئة حيث انه يتم تطعيم الطيور المنزلية مجانا لانها ستكون السبب فى ارتفاع معدلات الاصابة البشرية خلال العام الحالى 2008 عن العام الماضى 2007 ، والتى بلغت الاصابات به 25 حالة ، وعام 2006 والتى بلغت الاصابات به 18 حالة. He warned that the continuation of the education of household and non-vaccinated birds home for fear of paying the expenses are Atkdat wrong as it is home free influenza vaccination because it will be reason for the high incidence of mankind during the current year 2008 compared to last year 2007, which amounted to 25 cases of injuries, and the year 2006, which amounted to 18 cases of injuries.


                          4 / 1 / 2008 4 1 2008

                          _________________Please move if in wrong place.
                          Siam

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                            Thanks Siam
                            وأكد أن معدلات الوفيات بين الاصابات البشرية فى مصر مازالت اقل من المعدلات العالميةوالتى تصل إلى نحو 62 فى المائة من الحالات بينما فى مصر تبلغ نحو 44 فى المائة فقط. He stressed that mortality rates among casualties in Egypt is still lower than the rates Almihualte amount to about 62 per cent of cases, while in Egypt amounted to about 44 per cent only.
                            This is a case of statistics being used to deliberately mislead. New cases have a CFR at, or above, Indonesia or other current infections. The current Egyptian cases are well above 62% CFR.
                            Please do not ask me for medical advice, I am not a medical doctor.

                            Avatar is a painting by Alan Pollack, titled, "Plague". I'm sure it was an accident that the plague girl happened to look almost like my twin.
                            Thank you,
                            Shannon Bennett

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: EGYPT - Jan 4, 2008+

                              Updated map

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