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WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ?update August 05, 2015 - cumulative number of cases stands at 27 862 ; deaths 11 281 total - WHO admits these counts are very conservative (Nov 6)

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  • #16
    Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update August 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 2,615; deaths total 1,427

    Originally posted by Sharky View Post
    Is there still a summary thread somewhere? It's difficult to get a full sense of the epidemic from the country-specific threads alone.
    For many people it?s enough to have a current overview of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
    More important than the exact number of each of the cases is likely to be the development overview, from which it can be seen the tendency for the near future.
    I think it is also important to see the differences of development in these three countries.

    http://flari2013.bplaced.net/Gesundheit/Ebola-1.PNG

    The latest WHO-data from Sep 7. 2014 look a bit confused.
    The charts are updated when the WHO announces new data.
    Other countries are integrated, if their data are important.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update August 22, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 2,615; deaths total 1,427

      WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
      26 September 2014


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      Twitter: @RonanKelly13
      The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Sep 26, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 6,574; deaths total 3,091

        WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report
        1 October 2014


        OVERVIEW
        The total number of probable, confirmed and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the current outbreak
        of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa reported up to 28 September 2014 is 7178, with 3338
        deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Figure 1 shows the
        total number of confirmed and probable cases in the three high-transmission countries (Guinea,
        Liberia, and Sierra Leone) reported in each epidemiological week between 30 December 2013 (start
        of epidemiological week 1) and 28 September 2014 (end of epidemiological week 39). For the
        second week in a row the total number of reported new cases has fallen. It is clear, however, that
        EVD cases are under-reported from several key locations. Transmission remains persistent and
        widespread in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with strong evidence of increasing case incidence in
        several districts. There are few signs yet that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under
        control.
        ...
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        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 1, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,178; deaths total 3,338

          WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
          3 October 2014


          1. COUNTRIES WITH WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE TRANSMISSION
          7470 (probable, confirmed and suspected; see Annex 2) cases and 3431 deaths have been reported
          in the current outbreak of EVD up to the end of 1 October 2014 by the Ministries of Health of
          Guinea, and Sierra Leone, and up to the end of 30 September by the Ministry of Health of Liberia
          (table 1).
          ...

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          ANNEX 1. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
          As at 1 October 2014, there have been 70 cases (30 confirmed, 26 probable, 14 suspected) of Ebola
          virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among healthcare workers (HCWs). In total, 43 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
          778 contacts (out of 1121) have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 343 contacts currently being
          monitored, 341 (99%) were seen on 1 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This
          outbreak is unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone. Date of
          isolation for the last confirmed case was 25 September (nine days ago).
          Twitter: @RonanKelly13
          The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

            WHO has for the 3rd time (Aug 16th, Sep 6th, and now Oct 1st) omitted Liberian data for the 'period being reported', in this instance 10/1, causing WHO's '3-country-total of 7470' as of 10/1 to be understated and misleading.

            My database shows Liberia averaging 66 new cases per day for 5 days to 9/28, so I am 'normalizing' WHO's incomplete 10/1 '3-country-total' of 7470, which omits 1 Liberian day, to 7536, to adjust for the missing Liberian estimated new cases on 10/1.

            WHO's $1 BIL cut from their $4 BIL budget doesn't explain to me why they are now consistently omitting 1 to as many as 3 days of Liberian data from their ostensible "3-country" report periods and issuing misleadingly lower totals than actually exist, nor do their footnote indications of missing Liberian days give any explanation.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

              There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths.

              Either that or this report of dead Ebola patients resurrecting:



              is really true, and those patients just died more than once.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                Originally posted by alert View Post
                There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths.

                Either that or this report of dead Ebola patients resurrecting:



                is really true, and those patients just died more than once.
                Could they be receiving confirmation results after a suspected or probale case died and then neglected to move the probable or susptected case to the confirmed category?
                "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                  WHO is relying on info delivered by the Liberian MOH who has not published a report of their own since SitRep 136 on Sep 28th. I was quite surprised that WHO was able to get data to Sep 30th. The highlights of that report show a deteriorating situation -

                  "Nimba
                  The local authorities in Gbonnie Town, Yarmein District
                  refused access by the case investigation and management
                  teams to 14 children brought in from Kakata the police officer
                  – 2 children are reported symptomatic
                  ...
                  Contact tracing are becoming more difficult due to continuous
                  movement of contacts from urban to leeward communities
                  • Inadequate number of ambulance (1functional) for response
                  and referral of Ebola patients"


                  I really think everyone - WHO and MOH are doing their best in an appaling situation.
                  Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                  The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439


                    Update 10/01/2014:

                    In Guinea, the no change forecasts remain biased high and the
                    improved scenario forecasts better match observations, suggesting a continued
                    slowing of outbreak growth and perhaps improved efficacy of intervention.
                    The latest Guinea forecast seems to have responded to a jump in the reported
                    cases for the week ending 9/28/2014 and predicts much more accelerated growth.
                    Whether this is an artifact of case reporting or a trend will be borne out in the coming weeks.

                    In Liberia, observations continue to fall between the no change and improved
                    scenario forecasts.

                    In Sierra Leone, the no change scenario forecasts continue to best
                    match observed outcomes.

                    Overall, for the combined forecast, the exponential growth
                    of the outbreak is consistent with the previous week.

                    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    [I don't see this. There seems to be an improvement in the numbers]

                    normalized weekly number of new cases:
                    497,518,637,595,1113,1071,917,(1095,2days)

                    weekly changes of (new cases in the last 21 days)
                    Guinea_,158,289,324,312,292,267,(296,3days)
                    Liberia,866,1037,1186,1456,1707,1639,(1604)
                    SierraL,331,433,586,653,737,894,(886)
                    sumof3_,1355,1759,2096,2421,2736,2800,2786

                    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                      "There's something really wrong with the Liberian data if they have 931 confirmed cases and 934 confirmed deaths."

                      "Could they be receiving confirmation results after a suspected or probale case died and then neglected to move the probable or suspected case to the confirmed category?"

                      Unusually low Liberian daily new case totals over the past week in the database might otherwise have been hailed as an infection rate slowdown: the comparatively high death counts along with horrendous news reports have however been suggesting to me that some or many recorded deaths are not ever EVD tested and have simply not also been recorded as confirmed new cases.

                      Victims arriving already dead in ambulances or cars at care centers, or being turned away and dying at home and then privately buried reflect a chaotic situation where data components cannot be recorded and will remain incomplete: temporary changes/reductions in database new case moving averages seem to reveal data and reporting problems that may become somewhat clearer only after new and better recorded numbers become available.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                        do we have an estimate, what the sum of suspected+confirmed+probable
                        cases should be, with the calculation method from before mid-Sept. ?
                        Attached Files
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                          WHO has for the 3rd time (Aug 16th, Sep 6th, and now Oct 1st) omitted Liberian data for the 'period being reported', in this instance 10/1, causing WHO's '3-country-total of 7470' as of 10/1 to be understated and misleading.

                          My database shows Liberia averaging 66 new cases per day for 5 days to 9/28, so I am 'normalizing' WHO's incomplete 10/1 '3-country-total' of 7470, which omits 1 Liberian day, to 7536, to adjust for the missing Liberian estimated new cases on 10/1.

                          Additionally, WHO often somehow reports numbers not yet released by the national heath ministries: I have no confidence in nor do I refer to the delayed and irregularly reported WHO weekly charts, preferring instead to continually update, and reconstruct, my 2 month daily database and its smoothed moving averages - for the most recent indications of improvements or deteriorations in the rates of daily and weekly new case infection in the 3 primary countries.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                            ok, no big change.

                            Do you agree that the numbers are better now, that they show
                            a significant improvement ?
                            no longer exponential
                            almost stable


                            I mean, this is probably real and not some change in the reporting/registration/surveillance habits
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 3, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 7,492; deaths total 3,439

                              WHO: Ebola Response Roadmap Situation Report
                              8 October 2014
                              The total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the West African
                              epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported up to the end of 5 October 2014 (epidemiological
                              week 40) is 8033 with 3879 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra
                              Leone, and the United States of America. A confirmed case of EVD has been reported in Spain1
                              , but
                              because the case was confirmed during the week ending 12 October (epidemiological week 41),
                              information on this case will be included in the next Ebola Response Roadmap update.
                              The past week has seen a continuation of recent trends: the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra
                              Leone continues to deteriorate, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. Problems with
                              data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of
                              new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a
                              deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is
                              clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several
                              key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate
                              an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia. There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in
                              West Africa is being brought under control, though there is evidence of a decline in incidence in the
                              districts of Lofa in Liberia, and Kailahun and Kenema in Sierra Leone.
                              ...
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                              ANNEX 2. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
                              As at 5 October 2014, there have been 70 cases (30 confirmed, 26 probable, 15 suspected) of Ebola
                              virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among healthcare workers (HCWs). In total, 43 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
                              816 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 305 contacts currently being monitored, all
                              (100%) were seen on 5 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is
                              unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone.


                              Full PDF attached if WHO is busy.
                              Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                              The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: WHO: Ebola virus disease, West Africa ? update Oct 8, 2014 - cumulative number of cases stands at 8,033; deaths total 3,865

                                WHO: EBOLA RESPONSE ROADMAP UPDATE
                                10 October 2014


                                A total of 8399 confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been
                                reported in seven affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Spain, and the
                                United States of America) up to the end of 8 October. There have been 4033 deaths. Following the
                                WHO Ebola Response Roadmap structure1
                                , country reports fall into two categories: 1) those with
                                widespread and intense transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone); and 2), those with an initial
                                case or cases, or with localized transmission (Nigeria, Senegal, Spain, and the United States of
                                America). An overview of the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where a separate,
                                unrelated outbreak of EVD is occurring, is also provided (see Annex 1).
                                ...
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                                ...
                                ANNEX 1. EBOLA OUTBREAK IN THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO
                                As at 7 October 2014, there have been 71 cases (31 confirmed, 26 probable, 14 suspected) of Ebola
                                virus disease (EVD) reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including eight among healthcare workers (HCWs). In total, 43 deaths have been reported, including eight among HCWs.
                                830 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up. Of 291 contacts currently being monitored, all
                                (100%) were seen on 7 October, the last date for which data has been reported. This outbreak is
                                unrelated to that affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone, Spain, and the United
                                States of America.
                                Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                                The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                                Comment

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