Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

[AlaskaDenise]

Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

As CWG?s Angela Fritz wrote Tuesday, a non-tropical storm that attains a central pressure this low is extremely rare. This one is projected to achieve the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Bering Sea. ?It would also come very close to the lowest extratropical pressure on record for any location, which is 913 mb, set in the North Atlantic in 1993,? she said.

(see good maps in article)

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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

This article has a map showing the large number of vessels in that part of the north Pacific.

High seas, hurricane winds predicted for storm headed toward Aleutians

(...many of the tracked ships are large cargo ships traveling between Asia and Vancouver, Seattle, & San Francisco)

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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

The "Great Circle" is actually the shortest route between Asia and western US. It intersects the Aleutian Islands. There are over 3100 ships per year that travel through this area! (1200 container ships, 1300 freight ships, 265 vehicle carrier ships, 110 refreigerated cargo ships, & 22 oil tankers) Then there are the fishing boats! All will battle wave heights of 45 feet & 80 mph winds with 90 mph gusts, as part of "...one of the lowest sea-level barometric pressures ever observed on Earth outside of tropical cyclones and tornadoes."

And energy companies want to drill wells in the northern part of this area!

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[Emily]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml

FZPN01 KWBC 071535
HSFEP1

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1630 UTC FRI NOV 07 2014

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

PAN PAN

PACIFIC N OF 30N AND S OF 67N E OF A LINE FROM BERING STRAIT
TO 50N 160E

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC NOV 07.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 08.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC NOV 09.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...
.POST-TROPICAL NURI 49N165E 964 MB MOVING NE 20 KT AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING. WITHIN 300 NM E AND NE...540 NM S...AND 420 NM W
QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 25 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF
33N AND W OF 178E WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.06 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL NURI 53N168E 944 MB. WITHIN 300
NM SW AND E QUADRANTS WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 TO 31 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL NURI 55N171E 931 MB. FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 58N177E TO 55N169W TO 50N167W TO 45N169W TO 36N176E.
WITHIN 360 NM S QUADRANT WINDS 55 TO 70 KT. SEAS 34 TO 48 FT.
ALSO WITHIN 780 NM S QUADRANT AND 180 NM E AND NE OF THE FRONT N
OF 53N WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN
1020 NM S AND 600 NM E QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 420 NM E AND NE OF
THE FRONT WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL NURI 55N180W 944 MB. FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM 63N172W TO 60N159W TO 55N157W TO 50N156W TO 37N166W.
WITHIN 600 NM S AND SW QUADRANTS WINDS 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 21 TO
43 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM N...600 NM E...1020 NM S...AND
720 NM W QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 360 NM E AND NE OF THE FRONT WINDS
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 24 FT....

[Vibrant62]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

Are these storms 'normal' for this area, or is this a once in a lifetime event?

[Emily]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...ering/36927708

Rapidly Strengthening Monster Storm May Become Most Intense Ever for Alaska
Brian Lada
By Brian Lada, Meteorologist
November 7, 2014; 1:53 PM E
...
AccuWeather.com meteorologists believe that this system could become one of the most intense storms to move over the Bering Sea.

The central pressure of this system is forecast to drop below 930 millibars on Friday night.

To put this in perspective, the lowest pressure recorded in Hurricane Sandy was 940 millibars.

If the pressure of this storm does drop this low, it will be in contention for becoming one of the most powerful storms to ever develop over the Bering Sea in recorded history in terms of central pressure.

The current record stands at 925 millibars from a powerful storm that moved over the Bering Sea on Oct. 25, 1977...

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

Are these storms 'normal' for this area, or is this a once in a lifetime event?

The last similar storm in this area was in 1977, but the current one may be stronger. This time the jet stream is merging with left over Nuri storm to create an even stronger storm.

Bering Sea winter storms can be bad, but they're having a worse impact on ocean-front communities since the sea ice is absent or not continuous. Now the winds drive waves onshore destroying coastlines.

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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

Updated local TV reports - a similar storm in 2005 sent large waves 8000 miles & broke off part of Ross ice shelf!


Bracing for a big storm


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[BestlaStormcrow]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

In my area the benchmark for this kind of storm is the Columbus Day 1962 one - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_Storm_of_1962 The pressure over water got to 958mb.

I can only imagine the effects of a monster like post-Nuri hitting a populated area!

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

Latest wind speeds on furtherest Aleutian Islands...

Storm hitting Alaska's Aleutian Islands will chill much of the U.S. next week

(video with story)

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) ? The edge of a rapidly intensifying storm is pummeling Alaska's western Aleutian Islands, signaling its arrival with hurricane-force winds.

Sustained winds of 70 mph and gusts up to 96 mph were recorded Friday morning on Shemya Island, where 120 people are waiting out the storm at the end of the island chain.

What's left of Typhoon Nuri is also expected to bring unseasonably frigid temperatures to much of the U.S. next week.

Shemya Island is where the U.S. military operates Eareckson Air Station, which serves mainly as an early warning radar installation. Acting manager Don Llewellyn says no one is going outside, but people can see light poles waving.

National Weather Service forecaster Bob Oravec says the storm is expected to surpass the intensity of 2012's Superstorm Sandy. But Nuri's target is a sparsely populated region where people are accustomed to severe weather.


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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

The latest TV reports say the eye of the storm is tracking closer to Kamchatka (Russia), so SW Alaska will be spared some damage.

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[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Bombs away! North Pacific storm to explosively intensify in historic fashion

Weather service: No damage reported in Bering Sea storm

November 8, 2014

...A storm in the Bering Sea picks up steam on Friday, Nov. 7. With the worst over Saturday, worries about damage and displacement were giving way to the amazement at the sheer size and scope of the storm, which stretched nearly 2,000 miles over the Bering Sea and the far western Aleutians.

.....pressure was recorded on a floating bouy and bottomed out at 929.8 millibars, just east of the low center.

Hurricane Sandy had a recorded low pressure of 943 millibars. The lowest recorded pressure in Alaska is 925 millibars. Winter storms tend to bottom out in the range of 940 millibars...

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(there was some siding that came off a demo project. This area typically gets bad winds, so they're somewhat prepared. I'd suspect the Kamchatka, Russia communities didn't fare as well.)

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