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Still haven’t seen a good explanation of why the Atlantic was able to produce the strongest hurricane on record in the early season (Beryl), then shut off in mid-August! Not easy to understand folks…
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There are a lot of experts posting about this. No one has any answers.
...2024 began with extremely warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Atlantic during February to March, when temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit). This was the strongest warm event since 1982. Equally remarkable was the rapid transition from warm to cold SST anomalies. Never before in the observed record* has the eastern equatorial Atlantic swung so quickly from one to another extreme event. [*Edited on August 22, 2024, to add "in the observed record"]....
After a record-warm spring, the eastern Atlantic Ocean at the equator cooled off dramatically. What's going on, and how might it affect weather in the region this summer?
Hurricane forecast update following rare storm-free Labor Day weekend
For the first time in 27 years, September is starting with an extended lull in tropical activity.
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Published Sep 3, 2024 3:36 PM CDT | Updated Sep 3, 2024 3:46 PM CDT
Following an unusual August with limited tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades, AccuWeather is reducing its forecast for the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
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The forecast of 16-20 named storms is still above the historical average of 14 named storms.
... Why has there been a lull in the hurricane season?
Despite the widespread warm water across the basin, an abundance of dry air, dust from the Saharan Desert and disruptive winds have hampered tropical development. “We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa,” DaSilva said, adding that it is interfering with the showers and thunderstorms that commonly go on to become tropical storms and hurricanes.
“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total. We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation," Porter warned.
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