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  • Hurricane Sally Public Advisory

    Sally to impact SE LA as potential category 2 hurricane within 48 hours

    The storm is now forecast to be a Cat 2 - 100 mph hurricane at landfall.

    9 a.m. Tropical Update
    By Zack Fradella | September 13, 2020 at 4:41 AM CDT - Updated September 13 at 9:18 AM

    NEW ORLEANS, La. (WVUE) - A hurricane impact is becoming increasingly more likely for Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi by early next week as Sally is on a trajectory to make landfall Monday night into Tuesday.

    All residents today are urged to get your preparations in order for a hurricane impact on our area. We have about a 24 hour window where the weather will be relatively okay to put your plans into action. Do expect some passing downpours throughout the day today but they should be fast moving and not all that widespread which will help in your preparations.

    ...
    A hurricane impact is becoming increasingly more likely for Southeast Louisiana and South Mississippi by early next week as Sally is on a trajectory to make landfall Monday night into Tuesday
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

  • #2
    Gov. John Bel Edwards declares state of emergency ahead of Tropical Storm Sally

    WDSU Digital Team


    NEW ORLEANS —

    Gov. John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency ahead of Tropical Storm Sally.

    The storm is expect to strengthen into a hurricane and bring impacts to Louisiana as early as Monday morning.

    “While we ultimately don’t know where Sally will make landfall, much of Southeast Louisiana is in the storm’s cone and the risk of tropical storm force or hurricane strength winds continues to increase. Please stay weather aware for the next several days and heed the directions of your local officials. This storm has the potential to be very serious,” Gov. Edwards said. “Barely two weeks ago, Louisiana suffered a devastating blow when Hurricane Laura came ashore as the strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in Louisiana history, leaving a trail of destruction in its path. This, when combined with the COVID-19 pandemic, can make us all weary. I implore Louisianans to take their preparations seriously.”

    Click here to read the governor’s emergency declaration.
    ...
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

    Comment


    • #3


      See new TweetsConversation


      National Hurricane Center

      @NHC_Atlantic
      Here are the 4 PM CDT Key Messages for #Sally http://hurricanes.gov

      4:53 PM ? Sep 13, 2020?Twitter Web App

      Comment


      • #4
        We have been getting heavy bands of rain intermittently since about 11 am this morning in Central Florida.

        Comment


        • #5


          National Hurricane Center

          @NHC_Atlantic
          ?
          24m
          #Sally will produce very heavy rainfall resulting in widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. See
          @NWSWPC
          and your local
          @NWS
          office for details.


          5
          141
          158
          The Guardian

          @guardian
          ?
          24m

          Comment


          • #6
            Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory

            Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

            U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products

            000
            WTNT34 KNHC 141451
            TCPAT4

            BULLETIN
            Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 12
            NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
            1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020


            ...SALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
            ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA...



            SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
            -----------------------------------------------
            LOCATION...28.4N 86.9W
            ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
            ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
            MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
            PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
            MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


            WATCHES AND WARNINGS
            --------------------
            CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

            The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from the
            Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been
            changed to a Hurricane Warning.


            SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

            A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
            * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
            * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
            * Mobile Bay

            A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
            * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
            * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
            Orleans

            A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
            * Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
            * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

            A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
            * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

            A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
            inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
            during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
            of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
            Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
            life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
            should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
            rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
            Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
            officials.

            A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
            somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
            and property should be rushed to completion.

            A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
            expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

            A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
            possible within the watch area.

            For storm information specific to your area, including possible
            inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
            local National Weather Service forecast office.


            DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
            ----------------------
            Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
            that the center of Sally has reformed to the east of the previous
            estimated location. At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of
            Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North,
            longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near
            6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today,
            followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
            northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the
            forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central
            Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and
            make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday
            night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-
            northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

            Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
            gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and
            Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with
            additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the
            northern Gulf Coast.

            Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
            from the center.

            The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
            aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


            HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
            ----------------------
            Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
            Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
            and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

            STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
            tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
            rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
            reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
            areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

            Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
            Borgne...7-11 ft
            Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
            MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
            Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
            Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
            AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
            Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
            Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

            Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
            Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
            values may be higher than those shown above.

            The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
            onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
            damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
            timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
            short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
            products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
            office.

            WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
            hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
            possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
            within the warning area later today.

            RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
            approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
            amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
            the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
            middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
            addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
            isolated major flooding on area rivers.

            Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
            into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
            portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
            flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
            moderate flooding on some rivers.

            Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
            Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
            Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
            this region.

            Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
            1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
            produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
            minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

            TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
            Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
            Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

            SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
            west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
            southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
            are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
            conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


            NEXT ADVISORY
            -------------
            Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
            Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

            $$
            Forecaster Brown

            https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/141451.shtml

            ---------------------------------------------------------------

            Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion

            Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

            U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products
            ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
            TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

            Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12
            NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
            1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020


            An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80
            degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center
            this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
            Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the
            east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of
            deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in
            banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center
            found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative
            stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and
            that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent
            minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down
            several millibars from the first fix on this flight.

            Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear,
            warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to
            lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the
            recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more
            confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or
            tonight.
            Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the
            storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast
            Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will
            probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new
            NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is
            near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is
            forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a
            slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the
            circulation will remain over water for some time.

            Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a
            somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt.
            Weak ridging over
            the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west-
            northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to
            northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of
            the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has
            been eastward for the past few cycles,
            and the NHC forecast has been
            nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models
            but a little west of the various consensus aids.

            Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally,
            the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm
            surge and freshwater flooding event.


            KEY MESSAGES:

            1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
            onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
            northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
            on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
            forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
            surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
            center.


            2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
            expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
            Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
            the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
            effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
            local officials.


            3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
            Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
            Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
            Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
            later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
            should be rushed to completion.

            4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
            minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
            inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
            flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
            likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
            week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
            Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
            flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
            river flooding across west-central Florida through today.

            FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

            INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
            12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
            24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
            36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
            48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
            60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
            72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
            96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
            120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

            $$
            Forecaster Brown

            NNNN

            https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../141451.shtml?

            ------------------------------------------------------
            Click image for larger version  Name:	001.jpg Views:	1 Size:	262.8 KB ID:	892862

            https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE.../1000x1000.jpg
            "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
            -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • #7
              000
              WTNT34 KNHC 141630
              TCPAT4

              BULLETIN
              Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
              NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
              1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020


              ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
              STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
              ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...



              SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
              -----------------------------------------------
              LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
              ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
              ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
              MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
              PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
              MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

              ...
              "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
              -Nelson Mandela

              Comment


              • #8
                National Hurricane Center

                @NHC_Atlantic
                ?
                13m
                Hurricane #Sally Advisory 17: Sally Crawling Northwestward Toward the Northern Gulf Coast. Historic Flooding is Possible From Sally With Extreme Life- Threatening Flash Flooding Likely Through Wednesday Along Portions Of the Northern Gulf Coast. http://go.usa.gov/W3H

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