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  • ​Hurricane Michael Public Advisory - Hurricane warning issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida

    Hurricane Michael Public Advisory
    ...

    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 081740
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

    ...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
    ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
    ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
    DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
    ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
    ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
    * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
    * Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning.

    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
    threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
    coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
    For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
    Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
    hurricanes.gov.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
    monitor the progress of Michael.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United
    States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
    monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
    forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
    the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
    meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
    located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
    moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward to
    north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
    expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
    on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
    Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next
    couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
    tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
    and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida
    Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move
    northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night
    and Thursday.


    Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day
    or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by
    Tuesday or Tuesday night.


    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
    the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
    miles (280 km).

    The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
    reconnaissance aircraft is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
    potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
    occurs at the time of high tide...

    Indian Pass FL to Crystal River FL...8-12 ft
    Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
    Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
    Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
    Navarre FL to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

    WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
    of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
    Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
    warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

    Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
    along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
    conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
    by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.


    RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
    amounts through the weekend...

    Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
    inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
    and mudslides.

    Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
    inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
    could lead to life threatening flash floods.

    Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
    States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
    local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
    threatening flash floods.

    Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

    SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
    Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
    expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
    Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
    to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../081740.shtml?



    --------------------------------------


    https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOE.../1000x1000.jpg
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

  • #2


    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 082041
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
    400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

    ...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
    WESTERN CUBA...
    ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
    GULF COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
    ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
    ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
    from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Anclote River.

    The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Navarre Florida to
    the Alabama/Florida border.

    A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
    from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Suwannee River.

    A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border
    westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

    A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida
    border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwannee
    River Florida southward to Chassahowitzka Florida.

    A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
    border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
    * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
    Tampa Bay
    * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
    * The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
    * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
    * The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
    * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
    * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

    A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
    inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
    during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
    of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
    Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
    life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
    should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
    rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
    Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
    officials.

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
    force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
    rushed to completion.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
    threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
    coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
    monitor the progress of Michael.

    For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
    including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
    products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
    office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
    United States, please monitor products issued by your national
    meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
    located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is
    moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
    north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
    expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
    on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
    Michael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,
    then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday
    night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the
    Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
    move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
    night and Thursday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
    the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
    hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
    (280 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was reported at an
    observing site in Isabel Rubio in the Cuban province of Pinar del
    Rio earlier this afternoon.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
    tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
    rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
    potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
    occurs at the time of high tide...

    Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
    Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
    Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
    Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
    Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
    Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

    WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
    far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
    Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
    warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

    Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
    area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
    conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
    storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
    Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
    tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
    are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

    RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
    amounts through Friday...

    Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
    inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
    and mudslides.

    Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
    4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
    rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

    Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
    Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
    inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
    could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

    Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

    SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
    Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
    expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
    Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
    to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../082041.shtml?
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

    Comment


    • #3

      000
      WTNT34 KNHC 091147
      TCPAT4

      BULLETIN
      Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
      NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
      700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

      ...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
      SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
      ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
      RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...



      SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
      ----------------------------------------------
      LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
      ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
      ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
      MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
      PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
      MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


      WATCHES AND WARNINGS
      --------------------
      CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

      The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
      has been discontinued.

      SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

      A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
      * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

      A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
      * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
      Tampa Bay
      * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

      A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
      * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

      A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
      * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

      A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
      * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
      * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

      A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
      * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
      * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
      * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

      A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
      inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
      during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
      of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
      Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
      life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
      should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
      rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
      Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
      officials.


      A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
      somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
      36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
      force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
      dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
      rushed to completion.

      A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
      expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

      A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
      threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
      coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

      A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
      within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
      before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
      winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
      dangerous.

      A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
      possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

      Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
      monitor the progress of Michael.

      For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
      including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
      products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
      office.


      DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
      ----------------------
      At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
      near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 86.1 West. Michael is moving
      toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-
      northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,
      followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On
      the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the
      eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is
      expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big
      Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the
      southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

      Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
      sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
      higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is
      forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida.
      Weakening
      is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern
      United States.

      Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
      the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
      miles (315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean
      winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

      The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA aircraft is
      968 mb (28.58 inches).


      HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
      ----------------------
      STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
      tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
      rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
      potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
      occurs at the time of high tide...

      Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
      Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
      Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
      Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
      Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
      Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

      WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
      warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
      storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
      conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
      Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

      Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
      area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
      tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
      possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

      Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
      southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

      RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
      amounts through Friday...

      Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
      inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
      and mudslides.

      Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
      Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
      This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

      Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
      inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

      Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
      coast...1-3 inches.

      SURF: Swells generated by Michael are beginning to affect the
      coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells
      will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of
      Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely
      to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
      consult products from your local weather office.

      TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
      Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
      Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


      NEXT ADVISORY
      -------------
      Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

      $$
      Forecaster Brown

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../091147.shtml?
      "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
      -Nelson Mandela

      Comment


      • #4

        096
        FXUS62 KTAE 091257
        AFDTAE

        Area Forecast Discussion
        National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
        857 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

        ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE
        NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...


        ...HURRICANE PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED TODAY...

        .UPDATE...

        No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

        &&

        .PREV DISCUSSION [635 AM EDT]...

        .NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

        Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day
        under mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.


        .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

        Key Points...

        1. Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a major
        hurricane along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend on
        Wednesday. Conditions will begin to deteriorate late tonight into
        early Wednesday.

        2. The greatest threats include the danger of life threatening storm
        surge along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines and
        damaging winds that will result in widespread power outages that may
        last days to even more than a week in some areas. In
        addition, localized flash flooding and a few tornadoes are possible.

        3. With evacuation orders in effect, follow the guidance of local
        emergency management and evacuate if told to do so.

        This timeframe is when the greatest impacts (potentially
        catastrophic) from Hurricane Michael will be felt across the area.
        Michael continues to strengthen as it moves northward and enters the
        southern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane
        before landfall. Since yesterday, the global models are in better
        agreement with the overall speed and track of Michael which
        increases confidence in an eventual landfall across the Florida
        Panhandle or western Big Bend Wednesday. Significant impacts will
        occur as early as Tuesday evening to early Wednesday. Life
        threatening storm surge, downed trees and powerlines causing
        widespread and long lasting power outages, structural damage
        impacting homes and businesses, isolated tornadoes, and flash
        flooding are all expected. Your hurricane preparations should be
        completed early today.


        .LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

        The current NHC forecast takes Michael into the Carolinas as a
        tropical storm on Thursday. By that time, direct impacts from
        Michael should be subsiding. As recovery efforts get underway,
        expect rain showers and breezy conditions on Thursday. High
        temperatures in the mid 80s combined with dew points in the
        mid 70s will make for uncomfortable heat indices in the middle
        90s, especially for those without air conditioning.

        A dry stretch of weather is forecast Thursday night through
        Saturday night, along with a cooler and drier air mass.
        Temperatures will be more seasonable with highs in the low
        to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

        For Sunday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which
        leads to uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The
        area will reside between a cold front approaching from the
        west, high pressure nosing down the eastern seaboard, and
        greater subtropical moisture to the east. This leads to the
        potential for increased shower activity during this period.


        .AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

        MVFR CIGs will develop this morning. Showers are expected in the
        afternoon and evening as Hurricane Michael moves closer to the
        Panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Winds will be breezy with gusts of 25
        to 30 knots expected. Outer rain bands could move into the region
        as early as this evening or tonight.


        .MARINE...

        Hurricane Michael is expected to have a major impact
        on the area. Hurricane conditions are looking increasingly
        likely with the worst conditions expected on Wednesday.


        .FIRE WEATHER...

        Red Flag conditions are not expected.


        .HYDROLOGY...

        Given the track and intensity of Hurricane Michael, widespread
        rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are
        possible. The highest of these totals will be in the Florida
        panhandle and western Big Bend counties along and to the east of the
        track of Michael. These rainfall amounts will result in flash
        flooding.

        Current river conditions are below normal levels. With the
        anticipated rainfall, expect some of our river basins to rise above
        flood stage. This appears most likely in the Ochlockonee River
        basin, where there`s potential that a couple of sites reach moderate
        flood levels.


        .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

        Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
        encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
        occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

        &&

        .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

        Tallahassee 87 77 84 76 88 / 50 50 100 90 50
        Panama City 88 77 84 75 86 / 40 80 100 70 40
        Dothan 86 75 80 73 84 / 50 30 100 80 50
        Albany 87 76 85 76 86 / 50 30 90 90 60
        Valdosta 85 75 86 75 87 / 60 30 80 90 60
        Cross City 88 78 87 79 89 / 60 30 80 80 60
        Apalachicola 86 79 84 77 86 / 40 80 100 70 50

        &&

        .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
        FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
        Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
        Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
        Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
        Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

        Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-
        Madison.

        Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through
        Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
        Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
        Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
        Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
        North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

        High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
        Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

        High Surf Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to 2
        AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-
        Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

        GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Decatur-
        Dougherty-Early-Grady-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas-
        Worth.

        Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Clay-Cook-Irwin-
        Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner.

        Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday
        morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
        Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-
        Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

        Hurricane Watch for Clay-Lee-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell.

        AL...Hurricane Warning for Geneva-Houston.

        Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee-Dale-Henry.

        Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
        morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

        Hurricane Watch for Coffee-Dale-Henry.

        GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
        Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
        Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
        Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
        out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
        FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
        Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
        to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
        Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
        from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
        to 60 NM.

        &&

        $$

        UPDATE...DVD
        NEAR TERM...McD
        SHORT TERM...Scholl
        LONG TERM...LF
        AVIATION...McD
        MARINE...Scholl
        FIRE WEATHER...McD
        HYDROLOGY...Scholl

        https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1
        "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
        -Nelson Mandela

        Comment


        • #5
          000
          WTNT34 KNHC 101145
          TCPAT4

          BULLETIN
          Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
          NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
          700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

          ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
          FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

          ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
          RAINFALL IMMINENT...


          SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
          ----------------------------------------------
          LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
          ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
          ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
          MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
          PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
          MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


          WATCHES AND WARNINGS
          --------------------
          CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

          None

          SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

          A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
          * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

          A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
          * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
          Tampa Bay

          A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
          * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

          A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
          * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
          * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
          * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

          A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
          * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
          * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
          * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
          * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

          A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
          inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
          a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
          Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
          hurricanes.gov.

          A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
          somewhere within the warning area.

          A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
          expected somewhere within the warning area.

          A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
          threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
          coastline.

          A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
          possible within the watch area.

          Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
          monitor the progress of Michael.

          For storm information specific to your area, including possible
          inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
          local National Weather Service forecast office.


          DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
          ----------------------
          At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
          near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving
          toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
          northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the
          northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the
          northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and
          Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to
          move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move
          northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and
          Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
          United States on Friday.

          Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
          indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph
          (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous
          category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
          Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall.
          After
          landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
          United States.

          Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
          the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
          miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently
          reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport.

          The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force
          Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).


          HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
          ----------------------
          STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
          tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
          rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
          potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
          occurs at the time of high tide...

          Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
          Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
          Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
          Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
          Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

          WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading onshore along the
          U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning area, with hurricane conditions
          spreading onshore later this morning within the hurricane warning
          area. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across
          portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and
          southwestern Georgia later today and tonight.

          Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
          the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
          and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
          night.

          RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
          amounts through Friday...

          Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
          southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
          amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
          flash floods.

          The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
          to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
          rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

          Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
          coast...1-3 inches.

          SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
          eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
          or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
          and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
          weather office.

          TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
          Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
          afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
          Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


          NEXT ADVISORY
          -------------
          Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

          $$
          Forecaster Brown


          https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../101145.shtml?


          --------------------------

          Click image for larger version

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          "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
          -Nelson Mandela

          Comment


          • #6
            000
            FXUS62 KTAE 101053
            AFDTAE

            Area Forecast Discussion
            National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
            653 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

            .AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

            Conditions will continue to deteriorate from south to north
            across area terminals this morning into the afternoon as
            Hurricane Michael moves closer and eventually inland across the
            Florida panhandle. Winds will increase with lowering ceilings as
            bands of convection move through the region. We will see gradual
            improvement late tonight into Thursday morning.


            &&

            .PREV DISCUSSION [439 AM EDT]...

            .NEAR TERM [Today through Tonight]...

            Key Points...

            1. Hurricane Michael is expected to make landfall as a Category 4
            Hurricane along the Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend today as a
            storm of unprecedented strength for this area.
            Conditions will
            continue deteriorating through this afternoon and evening.

            2. The greatest threats include the danger of life threatening storm
            surge along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastlines and
            damaging winds that will result in widespread power outages that may
            last days to even more than a week in some areas. In addition,
            river flooding and flash flooding and a few tornadoes are expected.

            3. The time to prepare is ending. Be prepared to shelter in place
            for a long duration of time. As winds increase or a Tornado Warning
            is issued be prepared to get to a small interior room away from
            outside walls.


            Today and tonight is when the greatest, catastrophic impacts from
            Hurricane Michael will be felt across the area.
            Michael is forecast
            to be a category 4 hurricane when it makes landfall along the
            Florida Panhandle or western Big Bend this afternoon. Based on
            historical data, a hurricane of this strength has NEVER made
            landfall in this region and thus this is an event that will have
            unprecedented impacts. Bands from Hurricane Michael are already
            moving onshore. Be prepared for tornadoes in these
            and have a safe interior room to go when when either a Tornado
            Warning is issued or the devestating winds from Michael move
            onshore.


            Life threatening storm surge, downed trees and power lines causing
            widespread and long lasting power outages, structural damage impacting
            homes and businesses, river flooding and flash flooding, and a few
            tornadoes are all expected.



            .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday]...

            In the wake of the departing hurricane, Thursday will be hot and
            very humid with heat indices approaching 100 degrees, especially
            over the Florida zones. This will be very uncomfortable
            particularly for those residents who are without power due to
            Hurricane Michael. Some relief will arrive Thursday night and
            Friday as a the first cold front of this fall season sweeps
            through the region. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 80s to
            around 90 with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 70s
            northwest to mid 80s southeast. Lows Thursday night will range
            from the mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.


            .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

            A dry stretch of weather with seasonal temperatures for mid
            October is forecast to continue at least through the weekend. For
            Monday through Tuesday, a complex pattern sets up which leads to
            uncertainty in the sensible weather details. The area will reside
            between a cold front approaching from the west, high pressure
            nosing down the eastern seaboard, and greater subtropical moisture
            to the east. This leads to the potential for increased shower
            activity during this period.


            .MARINE...

            Hurricane Michael is expected to have a major impact on the area.
            Hurricane conditions are expected with the worst conditions today
            and tonight.


            .FIRE WEATHER...

            Aside from high dispersion values today, there are no other fire
            weather concerns.


            .HYDROLOGY...

            Given the track and intensity of Hurricane Michael, widespread rainfall
            totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated 12 inch amounts are
            possible. The highest of these totals will be in the Florida
            panhandle and western Big Bend counties along and to the east of
            the track of Michael. These rainfall amounts will result in flash
            flooding.

            At this time, flood warnings are in effect for portions of the Chipola,
            Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, and St. Marks Rivers. Despite
            current river conditions below normal levels, with the forecast
            rainfall, expect additional river basins to rise above flood
            stage.


            .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

            Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
            significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
            tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

            &&

            .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

            Tallahassee 79 76 89 59 82 / 100 100 20 10 0
            Panama City 79 74 89 61 81 / 100 70 20 10 0
            Dothan 78 73 86 54 78 / 100 100 20 0 0
            Albany 83 73 87 55 79 / 100 100 50 10 0
            Valdosta 84 76 88 60 82 / 90 100 30 10 0
            Cross City 83 78 90 65 86 / 90 90 20 10 0
            Apalachicola 81 77 87 64 81 / 100 70 20 10 0

            &&

            .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
            FL...Hurricane Warning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal
            Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-
            Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
            Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
            Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

            Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Calhoun-Central
            Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
            Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
            Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
            Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

            Tropical Storm Warning for Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-
            Madison.

            High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for Coastal
            Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

            High Surf Warning until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for Coastal
            Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

            GA...Hurricane Warning for Baker-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-
            Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
            Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

            Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
            Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
            Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
            Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

            Tropical Storm Warning for Ben Hill-Berrien-Cook-Irwin-Lanier-
            Lowndes.

            AL...Hurricane Warning for Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

            Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Coffee-Dale-
            Geneva-Henry-Houston.

            Tropical Storm Warning for Coffee.

            GM...Hurricane Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
            Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
            Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
            Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
            out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
            FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
            Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
            to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
            Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
            from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
            to 60 NM.

            &&

            $$

            NEAR TERM...LF
            SHORT TERM...Barry
            LONG TERM...Barry
            AVIATION...Barry
            MARINE...Barry
            FIRE WEATHER...Barry
            HYDROLOGY...LF

            https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TAE&issuedby=TAE&product=AFD&form at=CI&version=1&glossary=1

            -----------------------------------------------------------




            https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
            "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
            -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • #7
              FEMAVerified account @fema 2h2 hours ago More



              As Hurricane #Michael nears land, take shelter & stay safe. Follow weather updates on your phone or radio. In a tornado WARNING, go to an interior, windowless room. If water comes in, go to the highest floor that’s not flooded but do NOT enter a closed attic.






              NWS and NOAA

              "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
              -Nelson Mandela

              Comment


              • #8
                NWS TallahasseeVerified account @NWSTallahassee 3m3 minutes ago More



                Get the latest information on local emergency decisions by following @BayCountyEM. You can also see the current conditions at some locations near Panama City by visiting http://www.baycountyfl.gov/489/Traffic-Cameras…. #HurricaneMichael

                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                -Nelson Mandela

                Comment


                • #9
                  000
                  WTNT34 KNHC 101450
                  TCPAT4

                  BULLETIN
                  Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16
                  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
                  1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

                  ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE
                  COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
                  ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
                  RAINFALL IMMINENT...



                  SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
                  -----------------------------------------------
                  LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W
                  ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
                  ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
                  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
                  PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
                  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


                  WATCHES AND WARNINGS
                  --------------------
                  CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

                  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
                  Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle
                  Sounds.

                  A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
                  from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck.

                  The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/
                  Alabama border has been discontinued.

                  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

                  A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
                  * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

                  A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
                  * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
                  Tampa Bay
                  * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

                  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
                  * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

                  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
                  * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
                  * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
                  * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
                  * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

                  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
                  * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

                  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
                  inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
                  a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
                  Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
                  hurricanes.gov.

                  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
                  somewhere within the warning area.

                  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
                  expected somewhere within the warning area.

                  A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
                  threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
                  coastline.

                  A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
                  possible within the watch area.

                  Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
                  monitor the progress of Michael.

                  For storm information specific to your area, including possible
                  inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
                  local National Weather Service forecast office.


                  DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
                  ----------------------
                  At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
                  near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving
                  toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
                  northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
                  the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
                  through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is
                  expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this
                  afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States
                  tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away
                  from the United States on Friday.

                  Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
                  indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
                  with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4
                  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
                  strengthening is still possible before landfall.
                  After landfall,
                  Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
                  Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and
                  strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western
                  Atlantic.

                  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
                  center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
                  (280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida,
                  recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust
                  to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
                  reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida.

                  The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the
                  reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


                  HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
                  ----------------------
                  STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
                  tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
                  rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
                  potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
                  occurs at the time of high tide...

                  Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
                  Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
                  Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
                  Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
                  Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
                  Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
                  Duck...2-4 ft

                  WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading
                  onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas.
                  Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of
                  the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
                  later today and tonight.

                  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
                  the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
                  through Friday.

                  RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
                  amounts through Friday...

                  Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
                  southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
                  amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
                  flash floods.

                  The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
                  to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
                  rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

                  Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
                  coast...1-3 inches.

                  SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
                  eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
                  or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
                  and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
                  weather office.

                  TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
                  Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
                  This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
                  South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


                  NEXT ADVISORY
                  -------------
                  Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
                  Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

                  $$
                  Forecaster Brown

                  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/101450.shtml
                  "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                  -Nelson Mandela

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 25m25 minutes ago More



                    Here is the text of the Extreme Wind Warning issued for the eyewall of #Michael issued by @NWSTallahassee in effect until 1:15 PM CDT/2:15 PM EDT.

                    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                    -Nelson Mandela

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 14m14 minutes ago More



                      Here is the 11 AM CDT position update for #Michael: Core of Michael nearing the coast of the Florida Panhandle between St. Vincent Island and Panama City









                      "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                      -Nelson Mandela

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Chopper 2 over Mexico Beach


                        --------------------
                        Officials expect more dead as rescuers probe Florida hurricane debris


                        by Reuters
                        Friday, 12 October 2018 15:13 GMT

                        By Devika Krishna Kumar

                        PORT ST. JOE, Fla., Oct 12 (Reuters) - Rescuers used heavy equipment and search dogs on Friday to look for people trapped or killed in the Florida Panhandle towns devastated by Hurricane Michael, amid expectations the death toll of 12 from the powerful storm will climb.

                        So far, counties along the hard-hit northwest Florida coast have reported no deaths related to the storm. That could change, as efforts to assess damage and look for casualties in the worst-hit communities have been hampered by downed utility lines and roads blocked by debris and fallen trees.

                        The concern was for people who ignored evacuation orders ahead of the storm and stayed put in communities that were demolished by Michael's ferocity on Wednesday.
                        ...
                        About 1.5 million homes and businesses were without power from Florida to Virginia early on Friday, according to utility companies.

                        It could be weeks before power is restored to the most damaged parts of Florida, such as Panama City.
                        ...
                        By Friday morning the remnants of Michael had moved into the Atlantic Ocean northeast of Norfolk, Virginia, but still could bring up to 5 inches (13 cm) of rain to parts of New England, the National Hurricane Center said.
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                        http://news.trust.org//item/20181012151318-rd99n/
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