Nate weakens to tropical depression over Mexico - 7 of the 10 oil workers missing in Gulf of Mexico found alive

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Tropical Storm NATE Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 081458
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

...NATE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/081458.shtml

----------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm NATE Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT45 KNHC 081458
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NATE HAS
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION
OF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND
REPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER
ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.

NATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER
MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A
DAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND
GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS
MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS
IT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE
SCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.
THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE
THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

NATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO
SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 20.0N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 20.4N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 21.0N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.8N 92.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.5N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.1N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.6N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 24.0N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/081458.shtml?

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom out ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145915.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche

<TABLE id=rg3432313 border=0 cellSpacing=0 summary="" cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR align=middle><TD style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 20px; WIDTH: 100%; PADDING-RIGHT: 20px; PADDING-TOP: 20px" vAlign=top> </TD></TR><TR><TD style="WIDTH: 100%">http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/por...0model%20plots</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche

000
WTNT35 KNHC 092036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

...NATE STATIONARY AGAIN...EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
* MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST. NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NATE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 998
MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE AND
TABASCO.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NATE
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/092036.shtml?

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche

La. Workers Missing From Gulf Oil Rig
Rough Weather Hampering Search Effort
POSTED: 11:17 am CDT September 9, 2011
UPDATED: 4:28 pm CDT September 9, 2011


NEW ORLEANS -- Several Louisiana workers are believed to be among 10 missing from a drilling platform off the Mexican coast.

Mexico's state oil company said Friday it was searching for the employees of a Texas-based company after they evacuated the platform ahead of Tropical Storm Nate. Some are from the United States and others are foreign nationals.

...

The 10 disappeared after being taken off the rig amid high seas stirred up by Tropical Storm Nate, which is sitting nearly stationary to the south, near the Yucatan Peninsula.

The workers were contract and staff employees of Geokinetics, based in Houston, Texas, the company said. One of them is a Houma resident -- Jeremy Parfait, a married father of two.

Read more: http://www.wdsu.com/news/29131398/de...#ixzz1XUsOJD00

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Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche - 10 oil workers missing in Gulf of Mexico

Search under way for 10 oil workers in Gulf of Mexico

<!--endclickprintinclude--><!--startclickprintexclude-->By the CNN Wire Staff<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>cnnAuthor = "By the CNN Wire Staff";</SCRIPT>
<SCRIPT type=text/javascript>if(location.hostname.indexOf( 'edition.' ) > -1) {document.write('September 9, 2011 -- Updated 2121 GMT (0521 HKT)');} else {document.write('September 9, 2011 5:21 p.m. EDT');}</SCRIPT>September 9, 2011 5:21 p.m. EDTSeptember 9, 2011 5:21 p.m. EDT

...
The crew of a ship several miles away saw the workers board a life raft, but conditions were too dangerous for them to assist, Taquino said.

The life raft does not have a radio aboard, but it is stocked with enough food, water and supplies for several days, as well as flares for the nighttime, she said.
...
Four of the workers were identified as employees of Louisiana-based Trinity Liftboat Services. They are Jeremy Parfait of Houma, Louisiana, and Craig Myers, Ted Derise Jr. and Nick Reed, all of New Iberia, Louisiana, according to Heather Lanie, an administrative assistant at Trinity.

Full text:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/09/09/missing.oil.workers/

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Re: Tropical storm Nate nearly stationary over Bay of Campeche - 10 oil workers missing in Gulf of Mexico

The Associated Press September 11, 2011, 5:08PM ET

Nate weakens to tropical depression over Mexico
By E. EDUARDO CASTILLO

VERACRUZ, Mexico

Nate weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday over Mexico's Gulf coast, where officials opened shelters as a precaution but said the storm was having little impact.

Nate made landfall as a tropical storm before noon local time (1 p.m. EDT; 1700 GMT) north of Barra de Nautla in the state of Veracruz, where Gov. Javier Duarte said there were no reports of damage or injuries and rivers remained below risk level.
...
Of more than 2,200 shelters set up by the state, only two were in use, housing little more than 50 people, civil protection authorities said. In the city of Antigua, Mayor Arturo Navarrete told radio station XEU that there was light rain and very little wind.

An intensified air and sea search failed to turn up 10 oil workers who went missing Thursday, and there was no word from a dozen fishermen who disappeared aboard two shrimp boats on Friday.

More...

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9PMI6IO1.htm

--------------------------------------------------------

Two American oil workers among seven found alive in Gulf of Mexico

Published: Sunday, September 11, 2011, 6:00 PM Updated: Sunday, September 11, 2011, 6:08 PM

By The Associated Press The Associated Press

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's state oil company says seven of 10 oil workers missing in the Gulf of Mexico since Thursday have been found alive.

Petroleos Mexican's says the seven, including two Americans, were found 51 miles (82 kilometers) off the coast of the gulf state of Campeche Sunday morning.

Rescuers also found two bodies that have yet to be identified and are still searching for the other missing...

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2011/09/two_american_oil_workers_among.html

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Re: Nate weakens to tropical depression over Mexico - 7 of the 10 oil workers missing in Gulf of Mexico found alive

Oil workers survived Gulf storm in tiny raft

<!-- end art_main_pic --><!-- BYLINE -->E. EDUARDO CASTILLO
The Associated Press

<!-- PUBDATE -->Published: Thursday, September 15, 2011 at 6:23 a.m.

CIUDAD DEL CARMEN, Mexico ? A small, flat fiberglass raft was all 10 oil workers had to escape the leveling winds and towering waves of Tropical Storm Nate as it pounded their disabled rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

Capt. Jeremy Parfait of Houma radioed the final word to the Mexican shore last Thursday after the storm thrashed the Trinity II liftboat so badly, one of its three stabilizing legs broke, and the boat-turned-exploration platform tottered into the raging sea:

"We're going to lose communication. We're evacuating."

But as they went to deploy a sealed, inflatable life boat equipped with water, first aid and a tracking device, the high winds snatched it from the deck.

Continue reading:

http://www.dailycomet.com/article/20110915/WIRE/110919746