Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

[LaMenchos]

Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil
June 22, 2010, 7:19 AM EDT

Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...perse-oil.html

By Stuart Biggs and Jeremy van Loon. (Bloomberg) -- The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season may enter the Gulf of Mexico as soon as next week, possibly disrupting BP Plc?s efforts to clean up the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

Thunderstorms in the Caribbean may strengthen into a tropical storm this week before heading into the Gulf between Mexico and Cuba, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist at Planalytics Inc. in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

?The first named tropical storm of the 2010 season appears more likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean late this week and will go on to represent a formidable threat to the Gulf, along with heightening concerns about the oil slick,? Rouiller said in an e-mail yesterday.

Forecasters are predicting ...

Scientists don?t agree on the effect of storms on oil spills...

BP Response

BP is developing a new containment response that will help clean-up operators to connect and disconnect oil-recovery systems faster, allowing the company to capture more oil ahead of and following a storm, said John Pack, a BP spokesman in London. Some of the changes will be ready before July, he said.

Hurricane Season

AccuWeather Inc. yesterday boosted its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to 18 to 21 named storms, up from 16 to 18, and said at least three will move through the region affected by the oil spill. There have been five seasons with 18 or more storms in 160 years of record-keeping, AccuWeather said in an e-mailed statement.

Fishing Closed

The U.S. has closed 36 percent of federal waters in the Gulf to fishing following the oil spill, equivalent to 86,985 square miles (225,290 square kilometers).
...

[For update information on and storm tracking go to National Hurricane Ctr: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/]


Also see for storm tracking predictions http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...093_model.html

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook



<HR align=left width="100%" noShade><!-- Content here -->This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=567 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left>Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information</TD><TD align=right>Archived Outlooks</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.2 src="../gtwo/main.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><MAP id=twomap name=twomap><AREA title="Click for Eastern Pacific" shape=POLY alt="Click for Eastern Pacific" coords=0,273,31,289,50,296,60,292,67,294,80,306,86 ,307,94,309,102,311,113,323,114,331,122,333,127,33 6,126,341,132,342,137,341,143,347,148,347,149,344, 147,340,150,340,152,337,154,336,158,340,160,347,16 3,350,164,368,161,373,156,374,154,379,154,382,149, 384,0,384 href="/gtwo_epac.shtml#contents"><AREA onmouseover=stm(Text[11],Style[11]) onmouseout=htm() shape=POLY coords=160,281,160,296,169,306,181,310,196,308,206 ,300,210,287,205,272,189,264,171,268 href="../gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents"></MAP>

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL800 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING WESTWARDABOUT 10 MPH AND IS SPREADING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI... JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ADAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.$$FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTSNNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

</PRE>

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Gulf of Mexico Offshore Waters Forecast
...

000
FZNT24 KNHC 231956
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-240330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRES...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE S OF JAMAICA THU
THEN TRACK NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS BY LATE SUN INTO MON.
...

FORECASTER LEWITSKY

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

PERSPECTIVAS SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EN EL
TROPICO...CORRECCION
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL
200 PM AST MIERCOLES 23 DE JUNIO DE 2010

PARA EL ATLANTICO NORTE...EL MAR CARIBE Y EL GOLFO DE MEXICO...

UN AREA ALARGADA DE MAL TIEMPO SE EXTIENDE DESDE EL
ESTE DE CUBA Y JAMAICA HACIA EL ESTE A TRAVES DE LA
ESPANOLA...PUERTO RICO Y LAS AGUAS ADYACENTES DEL NORTE DEL MAR
CARIBE. EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO QUE ESTABA PROGRAMADO PARA
INVESTIGAR ESTE SISTEMA HOY FUE CANCELADO DEBIDO A LA FALTA DE
ORGANIZACION DE ESTE DISTURBIO. SIN EMBARGO...LOS VIENTOS EN LOS
NIVELES ALTOS TODAVIAN PODRIAN PRODUCIR ALGUN DESARROLLO LENTO
MIENTRAS EL SISTEMA SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE U OESTE NOROESTE CERCA
DE LAS 10 MPH EN LOS PROXIMOS 2 DIAS. LLUVIAS FUERTES PUDIERAN
AFECTAR SECTORES DE JAMAICA...CUBA...HAITI...LA REPUBLICA
DOMINICANA...Y PUERTO RICO DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. HAY UNA
POSIBILIDAD MEDIANA...30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE
DESARROLLE Y SE CONVIERTA EN UN CICLON TROPICAL EN LAS PROXIMAS 48
HORAS.

EN EL RESTO DEL AREA...NO SE ESPERA FORMACION DE CICLON TROPICAL EN
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.

$$

PRONOSTICADORES STEWART/CANGIALOSI

TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/SJUTWOSP+shtml/231852.shtml

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

NOAA's Dedicated Page for Satellite Imagery related to the Oil Spill

Contains still and loop images of various types:

"Visible, Shortwave (IR2), Water Vapor (IR3), Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements" and various display models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float4.html

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup

Caribbean Storms May Strengthen in Gulf, Hampering Oil Cleanup
June 22, 2010, 11:29 PM EDT
By Stuart Biggs and Jeremy van Loon

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-22/caribbean-storms-may-strengthen-in-gulf-hampering-oil-cleanup.html

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- The first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season may enter the Gulf of Mexico as soon as next week, possibly disrupting BP Plc?s efforts to clean up the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

A system of thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea is moving west-northwest toward the Gulf at 10 miles (16 kilometers) per hour, bringing rainfall to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in its latest update at 8 p.m. local time yesterday.

?Conditions are forecast to become more favorable? for the system to intensify in the next two days as it heads into the western Caribbean Sea, the center said. There?s a 20 percent chance it will form a tropical storm within 48 hours, it said, without giving a long-term outlook.

...
Cleanup Delays

A hurricane could stop oil-capture efforts and delay drilling of relief wells by 10 days, U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, the government?s national incident commander, said yesterday at a press conference in Washington. Rig crews would need to begin preparing to evacuate three to seven days ahead of the storm, Allen said.

A temporary pipeline may be laid from the leaking well to one or two nearby production platforms when the weather is too rough to use ships, Allen said. A platform may be capable of piping oil ashore or pumping it into a petroleum reservoir.

...

Active Season Forecast
...

Storm?s Path
The track a storm takes will have an impact on what happens to the oil, said Jill Hasling, president of the not-for-profit Weather Research Center in Houston.

A hurricane passing on the eastern side of the spill would blow oil away from the shore, while a storm on the slick?s western side may drive it onto beaches and further inland, she said by telephone.

?We just don?t want a storm right now,? Hasling said.

Atlantic weather systems receive a name when they reach tropical storm status with sustained winds of 39 miles per hour, while hurricanes have a minimum wind speed of 74 miles per hour.

...

The company is also drilling two relief shafts to seal the well that may be completed in August.

...

--With assistance from Brian K. Sullivan in Boston, and Jim Polson and Charlotte Porter in New York. Editors: Alex Devine, John Chacko.

...

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Oil response hurricane plans still lacking details

by Maya Rodriguez / Eyewitness News
wwltv.com
Posted on June 23, 2010 at 5:56 PM
Updated today at 6:26 PM

More than three weeks into hurricane season, there are still no firm plans from BP nor Unified Command, on how to handle the oil response should a storm threaten.

This comes as a weather disturbance in the Caribbean Sea is forecast to move into the Gulf early next week.

The situation is now worrying state and local officials, who wonder how BP will evacuate its assets stationed in some of Louisiana's most storm-vulnerable parishes.

"I don't have a lot of faith in the decision-making," said Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser.

Nungesser said the parish has already started making its own plans. They met with BP representatives on Wednesday, to offer them a staging area on the north end of the parish, where the oil response equipment could be placed in an emergency.

"Anything you want to bring from Venice, this is your spot," Nungesser said. "This area is for your subcontractors."

The concerns lie not just with Plaquemines Parish. Governor Bobby Jindal on Wednesday also expressed concerns that BP's overall hurricane plans lack critical details.

"We're still not satisfied, as of today. We're pushing them back again, in terms of securing some of the evacuation sites, their staging areas and the resources they're going to need," said Gov. Jindal, R-Louisiana. "We want to make sure they have adequate resources and, secondly, that they are not depending on resources that other entities may be counting on."

One of the most important resources is time, which is needed to evacuate coastal parishes before a storm hits, under normal circumstances. Yet, the oil spill in Gulf is anything but normal and there are real concerns about whether evacuating workers and equipment could interfere with residents trying to get out at the same time.

"There is no way physically possible, we will get all these men ashore in buses and out of this parish and out of this state or to safe haven, without, in my opinion, putting our resident at additional risk," Nungesser said. "If they want to get out, they're going to have to leave extra early.

.../

http://www.wwltv.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/Oil-Response-Hurricane-Plans-Still-Lacking-Details-97018794.html

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS LOCATED MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Fri, 25 Jun 2010 00:28:55 -0500



000
ABNT20 KNHC 250528
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[LaMenchos]

Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Fri, 25 Jun 2010 06:42:20 -0500

ABNT20 KNHC 251142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HONDURAS
AND GRAND CAYMAN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED.
...

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

Storm system may slam Gulf, BP cleanup sites

Officials get ready for tropical storm that could threaten oil cleanup efforts

msnbc.com staff and news service reports
updated 39 minutes ago<SCRIPT language=javascript> function UpdateTimeStamp(pdt) { var n = document.getElementById("udtD"); if(pdt != '' && n && window.DateTime) { var dt = new DateTime(); pdt = dt.T2D(pdt); if(dt.GetTZ(pdt)) {n.innerHTML = dt.D2S(pdt,((''.toLowerCase()=='false')?false:true ));} } } UpdateTimeStamp('634130794911500000');</SCRIPT>

NEW ORLEANS - Beleaguered officials in New Orleans are now bracing for the possibility that a tropical storm that could descend on the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours and delay oil spill recovery efforts in the area.

The National Hurricane Center said Friday morning that there is a 70 percent chance that a low-pressure area now developing over the western Caribbean Sea may pick up steam and head toward the Gulf, where oil facilities are clustered and BP continues to fight back the oil spill.

Coast Guard officials told NBC News that they will likely need to remove people from rigs if the storm develops and moves toward south Louisiana.

The shutdown process would begin 120 hours before winds of 40 mph or more strike.

Adm.Thad Allen, who is leading the government's cleanup efforts in the area, told CNN that officials have begun planning for a worst-case scenario.

"There is no playbook. But I will tell you there's been an extraordinary amount of planning being done," Allen said on CNN's "American Morning" Friday. "We are going to try to merge two response structures. One has proven effective in the past, and that's a central coordination of search and rescue and how operations are conducted, and that's done out of Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida for hurricanes. And we are in the process of integrating our planning processes so the oil spill response is integrated fully within the search and rescue recovery operations."


System getting stronger

Most weather models project the system will cross Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days before entering the central Gulf of Mexico.

Earlier Friday, the NHC said the system, located between Honduras and the Cayman Islands, had a 60 percent chance of developing.

Specifically, NHC said, "Shower activity has become a little more concentrated this morning ... and surface pressures are falling. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development ... and the system is likely to become a tropical depression before it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days."

An Air Force Reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later Friday to determine if a tropical cyclone has formed, according to the NHC.

Oil prices rose in the markets on Friday on news of the storm system.

../

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37921094/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf/

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

<TABLE class=blueTop cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hCenter>Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts</TD><TD class=hRight></TD></TR><TR><TD class=sLeft></TD><TD class=sCenter></TD><TD class=sRight></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Information about these models can be found at the National Hurricane Center.
Click the map below to change the zoom level.
<TABLE class=sm id=mapTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://french.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201093_model.html#a_topad

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil

An Oilicane? (Opinion)

By Art Horn
Posted on Jun. 21, 2010

The gulf oil spill is bad but it could become much, much worse and soon.

The threat is a hurricane moving over the spill. If a hurricane’s violent winds track over the spill, we could witness a natural and economic calamity that history has never recorded anywhere or anytime. We will literally be in oil-soaked waters. We will have witnessed the first oilicane.

A category one hurricane (on a scale of 1 to 5) has maximum sustained winds of 74 to 95 miles per hour near the eye. A category five hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 156 to 200 miles per hour. The difference between the two storms is gigantic and non-linear. The latter hurricane may cause 250 times more damage than the former.

Water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are now running as warm or warmer than they did during the record setting season of 2005. This is significant. Warmer water means more heat and humidity over the tropical ocean to fuel hurricanes. Just as a car needs gasoline to fuel its engine, a hurricane needs hot, humid air because a hurricane is little more than a gigantic atmospheric engine. The warmer and more humid the air it breaths in, the faster its pistons pump and the stronger its winds become.

The warmer water not only makes more hurricanes, it make more big ones. The 2005 season had a record 15 hurricanes. Nobody knows how many there will be this season. But it appears that it could be a big year.

Oil continues to gush out of the bottom of the gulf. Some progress has been made to reduce the amount escaping. Oil is washing up on shores and efforts are being made to clean it up. The good news is that most of the oil is confined to coastal areas. The bad news could come if a moderate to large hurricane rides over the spill.

The winds of a hurricane are so strong that the normal interface between ocean and atmosphere disappears. The winds begin to generate large waves. Spray is blown off the top of the waves. That spray mixes with the air so that after a short time there is no real boundary between what is ocean and what is the atmosphere. If a large hurricane moves over the spill, this chaotic mixture of water and air will inevitably also contain oil.

The oil will become airborne and travel with the hurricane.

When hurricanes make landfall the winds push the ocean onto the land in what is called a storm surge. The height of the surge on land is dependent on several factors. The strength of the wind and the rate of forward motion of the storm is critical as to how much water is forced up onto the land. The diameter of the hurricane will also determine how much water is blown inland. The wider the storm the more water is pushed in and over a greater area. If the water is shallow offshore, the surge will be deeper on land. Naturally, the elevation of the land is important as well. The water off the gulf coast is shallow. The elevation inland is only a few feet. This area is prime territory for devastating and deeply penetrating storm surges.

Should a major hurricane push the spill towards the gulf coast there will be nothing that can be done to stop it. No amount of planning or engineering will help. No number of visits to the gulf by the president or any other official will stop the inevitable. The storm surge will drive the water and the oil miles inland. Everything in its path will be coated in a greasy bath of crude. Even the wind may have oil in it. In New England, I have seen hurricanes and tropical storms that have blown salt spray many miles inland from the coast. The leaves of the trees eventually turn brown and fall off. In the case of the gulf it will be oil that will spray the trees, buildings and everything else in the way. How far inland this oily mess will blow is anyone’s guess but it will be unprecedented in its economic and environmental damage.

The recovery period after a hurricane can take years. It was 10 years until some communities fully recovered from Hurricane Andrew in South Florida, some never recovered at all. The New Orleans area is still putting itself back together after Katrina in 2005. The recovery period after an oil-soaked hurricane -- or what could be called an Oilicane – is impossible to forecast but it could take years and many billions of dollars. One wonders if BP has the money to survive such a unique disaster. The human and natural losses from such an event could be historic.


Art Horn, a meteorologist, lives in Manchester, Connecticut. His website is www.theartofweather.com.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/4398/An-Oilicane

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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil


? Back to the Tropical Weather Page

http://weather.wwltv.com/auto/wwltv/tropical/tracking/at201001.html