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Re: Tropical Storm May Threaten BP?s Spill Cleanup, Disperse Oil
<TABLE class=blueTop cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hCenter>Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet</TD><TD class=hRight>
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<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:55 PM GMT on July 02, 2010</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Excerpt:
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles.
Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time...
<TABLE class=blueTop cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hCenter>Alex is gone; the tropics are relatively quiet</TD><TD class=hRight>
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=sLeft></TD><TD class=sCenter></TD><TD class=sRight></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:55 PM GMT on July 02, 2010</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Excerpt:
I hope Alex will give the officials in charge of the BP oil disaster a bit of a wake up call. We've been told that five days are required to shut down operations in the event of tropical storm force winds are forecast for the clean-up region. It is very unrealistic to expect a five day warning, since the average track error in a 5-day forecast is about 300 miles.
Furthermore, we have little skill forecasting the formation of tropical storms, and it is often the case that a tropical storm forms just a 1-day journey from the Deepwater Horizon blowout location. If we examine the incidence of tropical storm force winds in that region over the past five years, I suspect that they were successfully predicted five days in advance perhaps 30% of the time...
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