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  • Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids?

    Source: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nati...ky.html?r=news

    Biggest solar flare in years set to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids

    By Michael Sheridan
    DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITER

    Thursday, February 17th 2011, 8:59 AM

    A massive solar flare could make for a beautiful night for people in the northern United States - provided it doesn't knock the lights out.

    The blast of charged particles unleashed from the sun earlier this week has been peppering the Earth over the last few days, but it's biggest punch is expected to hit the Earth's atmosphere on Thursday...

  • #2
    Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids

    Good article from National Geographic here:



    Biggest Solar Flare in Years?Auroras to Be Widespread Tonight?
    Explosive magnetic reconnection aims "firehose" of charged gas at Earth..

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids

      Solar Storms, CMEs & FEMA





      # 5320


      CME Feb 2000 ? Credit SOHO


      Over the past 48 hours activity on our sun - which has been in a prolonged quiescent period called a solar minimum for nearly 5 years - has increased signaling our approach to a solar maximum expected sometime in 2012 or 2013.
      Our sun is a variable star, and it goes through many major, and minor cycles. The best documented of these is the 11-year/22-year sunspot cycle.

      Roughly every 11 years (it runs anywhere from 9 to 14 years), the sun experiences a magnetic pole shift at the time of solar maximum ? a period of high sunspot and solar flare activity.

      Every 22 years, the cycle completes, and the poles return to their `original? position.

      Our sun has, since 2006, been in a solar minimum or quiescent phase. Very few sunspots and solar flares.
      Regular readers will remember that three times last year I wrote about solar storms, and their potential for harm to our infrastructure.
      Yesterday, the newswires were filled with stories about a large (although not particularly severe) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) headed for earth. From the United States Space Weather Prediction Center, we get this update.

      February 16, 2011 -- The calm before the storm. Three CMEs are enroute, all a part of the Radio Blackout events on February 13, 14, and 15 (UTC). The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the forerunners about mid to late day tomorrow, February 17. Watch this space for updates on the impending -- G2, possibly periods of G3 -- geomagnetic storming.

      Watch Today's Space Weather for the most recent activity.

      CME?s are essentially huge bubbles (millions of tons, actually) of magnetized plasma that during times of heightened solar activity, are occasionally ejected from sun at great speed. And when they are directed at earth, they can cause severe geomagnetic storms.

      The most famous, and extreme example occurred in 1859 and is known as The Carrington Event.

      While they pose no direct physical danger to us on the surface (we are protected by the earths magnetic field and atmosphere), they can wreak havoc with electronics, power generation, and communications.

      So today would seem a good day to review solar storms, their impact, and how FEMA, NASA, and other agencies are preparing for them.
      And what you should be doing to prepare, as well.
      Although a G2-G3 level geomagnetic storm poses little threat, the scale goes up to a G5.

      And while rare, when those occur, the potential for damage is enormous. You can view the entire scale at NOAA Space Weather Scales, but I?ve excerpted the G5 description.
      G 5
      Extreme
      Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
      Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
      Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40? geomagnetic lat.)**.

      A year ago FEMA held a major table-top exercise in anticipation of the upcoming solar maximum, and according to a tweet from FEMA Director Craig Fugate yesterday, they now include a solar weather update in their daily briefings.

      A 30 page PDF file is available for download from the FEMA library on this exercise which envisioned a `near worst-case scenario?.
      Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain - The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm


      The United States (U.S.) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) planned and hosted The Workshop on Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain ? The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm in Boulder, Colorado, on February 23-24, 2010.

      The overarching goals of the Geomagnetic Storm Workshop were to allow senior government officials and representatives of both public and private entities from the U.S., Sweden, and the European Union (EU) to compare and contrast the current plans, policies, and procedures used to prepare for and respond to a widespread disaster in the U.S. and EU. The workshop also provided a means to discuss communications between the U.S. and EU in the event of a catastrophic disaster with Transatlantic implications.
      An excerpt from this report?s forward reads:
      Unlike natural hazards that we have faced in the past, disasters caused by abnormal solar activity could pose a worldwide threat and disrupt energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure.

      Addressing such a large-scale disaster in purely national terms is not sufficient and requires international collaboration.


      Last year NPR produced a news report, and a brief All Things Considered audio report on this exercise.
      The impact scenario used in this `near? worst-case exercise reads:
      An intense geomagnetic storm began on February 25, 2010, during a particularly cold weather outbreak in the Northeastern U.S. and Northern Europe. Significant electric power grid problems occurred, and a massive power fluctuation affected the transmission grid. Within one hour, cascading power outages were reported throughout the eastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. and eastern Canada.

      Power stations reported numerous generator step-up transformers and transmission transformers out of commission, with projected replacements and repairs taking weeks and even months. This raised immediate concern of a critical infrastructure collapse with loss of water distribution, sewage disposal, hospital care, phone service, and fuel resupply. Satellite outages were reported, and cell phones experienced significant service disruptions.

      Significant problems were also reported in Northern Europe. Power outages were reported in large areas of southern Sweden, Scotland, Northern England, and the upper tip of Northern Europe. The power outage's effects on international air transport and financial markets were widespread.

      The extreme geomagnetic storm lasted for 24 hours, ending late on February 26. Full recovery of the U.S. power grid is expected to take six months. Many populated areas are expected to be without power for weeks or months.
      While sounding a bit like science-fiction, and being used as fodder by prophesy/ Mayan 2012/ End-of-the-World fringe websites, the truth is large and potentially disruptive solar storms do occur on rare occasions ? usually at the time of a solar maximum.

      NASA, while admitting that a serious solar storm could happen practically anytime, also cautions that the next big one could be many decades away. It is a genuine threat, they say, but the timing is impossible to predict.
      In 2009 the National Academy of Sciences produced a 134 page report on the potential damage that another major solar flare could cause in Severe Space Weather Events?Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts.
      You can read it for free online at the above link.

      Last year Space.com produced a spectacular 18 minute video entitled Attack of the Sun, which may be viewed on YouTube.



      All of which brings us to what you can do to protect your family, your business, and your community should a `worst-case? geomagnetic storm strike the earth.
      While I wouldn?t advise anyone to lie awake at night worrying about such a rare event, it is another good reason to take general `all threats? preparedness seriously.
      So if you are well prepared for an earthquake, a hurricane, or a pandemic . . . you are automatically in a better position to weather the disruptions caused by a solar storm.

      Some resources to get you started on the road to `all threats? preparedness include:
      And a few of my (many) preparedness essays include:You can search this blog for more preparedness information by clicking this link.

      As we approach the solar maximum in 2013, you can expect to be hearing more and more stories about heightened sunspot, solar flare, and CME activity.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids?

        Huge solar flare said to jam China communications
        AFP
        February 17, 2011, 4:34 pm

        WASHINGTON (AFP) - The strongest solar flare in four years disrupted radio communications in southern China, according to the China Meteorological Administration.

        The solar flare, a huge explosion on the sun's surface caused by magnetic activity, affected transmissions in southern China on Tuesday, Xinhua news agency reported, quoting the CMA.
        .....
        "The only security we have is our ability to adapt."

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids?

          Source: http://www.montrealgazette.com/techn...935/story.html

          Geomagnetic storm dodges Earth: Scientist
          By Jim Mannion, AFP February 17, 2011 2:02 PM

          WASHINGTON - A wave of charged plasma particles from a huge solar eruption has glanced off the Earth's northern pole, lighting up auroras and disrupting some radio communications, a NASA scientist said.

          But the Earth appears to have escaped a widespread geomagnetic storm, with the effects confined to the northern latitudes, possibly reaching down into Canada and Norway.

          "There can be sporadic outages based on particular small-scale events," said Dean Persnell, project scientist at NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory at Goddard Space Flight Centre.

          He told AFP the official forecast is "for generally quiet conditions today, perhaps some minor storming tomorrow, but nothing extraordinary..."

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids?

            Solar flare radiation expected to hit starting today


            [Source: Los Angeles Times, View Original Article. Feb 18 2011.]

            The largest solar flare in four years erupted Monday. Its radiation is expected to reach Earth today and Friday and perhaps interfere with communication systems, power grids and navigation satellites. It might also enhance the northern lights. Radiation from the largest solar flare in four years is expected to reach the Earth Thursday and Friday, potentially interfering with communication and navigation satellites and disrupting ground-based communication networks and power grids.

            -
            -----

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Solar flare to blast Earth's atmosphere; could impact GPS, power grids?

              Solar flare 2011: How a dazzling display can wreak electrical havoc


              [Source: Christian Science Monitor, View Original Article. Feb 18 2011.]

              Solar flare 2011: A massive eruption of charged solar plasma glanced off the earth this week, a reminder that our star can still surprise us.
              -
              ------

              Comment


              • #8
                A CME reportedly shut down the air ports in New Zealand yesterday. In the last 24 hours about 3 of them have hit the earth. Another one is incoming. I am not overly concerned but watchful. I noticed some interference with the GPS yesterday and wonder if it was caused by the CME's? There is more information at the link. The information on the videos are taken from sources available to the public. The additional information and links to the information sources can be found at:



                Bigger Eruption, Solar Storm Effect | S0 News June 25, 2015



                SEVERE Magnetic Storm, More is Coming | S0 News June 23, 2015

                We were put on this earth to help and take care of one another.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Effects on tectonics is something I've wondered about since the timing of solar events and a couple of recent great earthquakes. I see USGS did a statistical study published in 2013 and did not find a pattern:


                  Insignificant solar-terrestrial triggering of earthquakes

                  They pointed out a couple of great earthquakes that did not correlate to increased solar activity, but they don't reference the paper below from 2011.


                  During the times of solar minima the pressure from the solar wind
                  on the earth decreases, then the magnetosphere expands and earthquakes happen in a different
                  pattern according to the geological feature on earth?s surface less frequently...
                  I'm not going to try to figure out how the 1964 & 2004 earthquakes fit into the minima patterns, nor where we fit into these patterns today, but it is a good time to update emergency plans.
                  _____________________________________________

                  Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                  i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                  "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                  (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
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                  • #10
                    Source: http://news.yahoo.com/earth-will-onl...081651736.html


                    Earth Will Only Have 12 Hours To Prepare For Massive Solar Storm
                    9 hours ago

                    ...In a new government document, the Department of Business, Innovation and Skills has laid out its Space Weather Preparedness Strategy, outlining the risks of unsettled space weather as well as what it plans to do about them.

                    The document explains that the worst case scenario is a ?coronal mass ejection? - huge eruptions on the sun which cause parts of its corona to detach. The corona is the pearly glow around the sun that you can only usually see during a total solar eclipse, made up of plasma and rarefied gases...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Comment: Who should be worried about space weather

                      By Rodney Viereck

                      If you live in hurricane-prone regions, you?re probably familiar with the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale; if you?re in Tornado Alley, you probably know the Fujita scale. If a meteorologist tells you a Category-5 hurricane or an F-5 tornado is headed your way, you probably know to evacuate or take cover. But what happens if a solar storm is headed toward Earth? We?ve all likely heard from the media about the potential impacts of severe space weather events: no cellphone service, no GPS, no satellite TV, no way for airplanes to communicate, no electricity as the power grid goes down. But to whom do you turn for reliable information, and how do you know if you should worry? Scientists have now created a scaling system for solar storms like those used for hurricanes and tornadoes with the hope that such a system will help government agencies and the public prepare for and respond to space weather events...
                      Viereck is a physicist with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colo. The views expressed are his own.



                      Saturday, July 25, 2015 - 06:00
                      American Geosciences Institute


                      _____________________________________________

                      Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.

                      i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

                      "...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party

                      (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
                      Never forget Excalibur.

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