Cardiovascular risk tool overestimates actual chance of cardiovascular events five- to sixfold

[Gert van der Hoek]

the risk tool probably is useless?


2-MAY-2016

Cardiovascular risk tool overestimates actual chance of cardiovascular events

Kaiser Permanente study finds incidence of heart attacks and ischemic strokes over 5 years substantially lower than predicted by nationally recommended risk calculator

OAKLAND, Calif., May 2, 2016 -- A widely recommended risk calculator for predicting a person's chance of experiencing a cardiovascular disease event -- such as heart attack, ischemic stroke or dying from coronary artery disease -- has been found to substantially overestimate the actual five-year risk in adults overall and across all sociodemographic subgroups. The study by Kaiser Permanente was published today in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.

"From a relative standpoint, the overestimation is approximately five- to six-fold," explained Dr. Go. "Translating this, it would mean that we would be over-treating a good many people based on the risk calculator."

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[Emily]

the risk tool probably is useless?

Maybe it at least applies to diabetics. This emphasizes how important testing for diabetes is. The condition effects so many aspects of health.

On the other hand, researchers found that observed atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk was substantially closer to that predicted by the ACC/AHA tool among adults with diabetes who were not treated with statin therapy for primary prevention.

[Gert van der Hoek]

It seems difficult to distinguish between people with CVD and people with diabetes. CVD and diabetes seem to be 2 sides of the same coin? People with CVD who are not diagnosed as a diabetic, simply are not diagnosed?

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