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  • China - Hog prices continued to decline

    Translation Google

    Hog prices continued to decline two weeks breakdown breakeven point NDRC said "timely" control

    January 27, 2014 09:16:45 Source: Nanfang Daily

    New Year shopping season can not pull up the market prices, pork prices continue to decline. Xinhua News Agency issued
      
    Of the year, this is the shopping season. But this year, there was chicken, pork prices both fell situation.
      
    Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission , said more openly, according to monitoring data on January 22, the pig grain price has fallen to 5.66:1, 6:1 for two consecutive weeks below the national average breakeven point, hog prices continue to decline, the state will in due course promoter regulation plan.
      
    In this regard, the industry said, the state's regulatory policies or hard landing soon, even really started purchasing and storage, prop effect is very weak, pork is immune to pick up in the first half of this year.
      
    Pig grain than the breakeven point breakdown NDRC said the introduction of regulation plan
      
    While pork has not continued to decline news, but the industry who do not want to see the New Year shopping season still can not pull up the market price. According to the Ministry of Agriculture Market and Economic Information Division released the first three weeks of 2014 domestic agricultural market dynamics show that over the same period, "the national wholesale price index of agricultural products" as 205.11, compared with the previous week rose 0.97 points, but still not ideal pork and chicken prices , pork, whole chicken and weekly average price was 20.78 yuan per kilogram, 13.93 yuan and 8.49 yuan, down by 2.5%, 0.7% and 0.2%. But rather higher beef and mutton prices stabilize, weekly average price of 54.67 yuan per kilogram and 56.55 yuan, the chain were up 0.4%.
      
    Specific to the Guangdong market, it is out of the chickens, pigs double play situation, according to the Guangzhou Municipal Price Bureau aspect of the information provided, the recent decline in wholesale prices of many raw chicken Guangzhou market reached 20%, while the last two months National hog prices are nearly 15 percent decline. Compared to suffer a sudden blow H7N9 chicken market downturn described as "Rome was not built in a day" pork prices, according to statistics, the average price last week, hog Guangzhou was 14.5 yuan / kg, pig grain price is 5.94 : 1, has fallen below the cost of line losses (currently the hog-corn ratio fell below the breakeven point "6"), into the loss zone.
      
    Yesterday, the National Development and Reform Commission has also publicly acknowledged, according to statistics on January 22, the pig grain price has fallen to 5.66:1, for two consecutive weeks breakeven point below the national average of 6:1, as of January 22, the National average farmgate price of pig 13.58 yuan per kilogram, down 15.3% from the previous high (last December 11), some farmers have begun loss.
      
    National Development and Reform Commission, said the side aspect, hog prices fell during the Spring Festival is conducive to the stability of the general price level, will help reduce the burden on consumers, but at the same time worried that if excessive fall will affect the enthusiasm of farmers, may cause rapid post-pork rise.
      
    In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission has also made it clear that, according to "ease the cyclical fluctuations in the market price of live pigs regulation plan" (hereinafter referred to as "" control plan ",") the provisions of the national authorities are closely monitoring changes in pig production and market price will be based on market conditions, the timely start-control plan to prevent excessive decline in hog prices to avoid large losses occur pig farming, pig production efforts to mitigate cyclical fluctuations and market prices.
      
    Purchasing and storage industry, said the short-term is still difficult to start large-scale farmers to withstand the force
      
    According to "control plan" shows that the situation is now more in line with "three response" state, when the pig grain price in the period of time between successive 6:1-5.5:1 (blue area), it can increase a certain number of timely frozen pork reserve center, local governments have increased a number of timely local frozen pork reserves to stabilize the price of live pigs and pig production; and proceeded to do preparatory work for the implementation of the secondary response.
      
    However, industry sources said that the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document more to stabilize the market sentiment, purchasing and storage measures should not be so quick to start. "'Timely' start austerity measures meant to say mainly depends on the market reaction conditions in the pork price declines, nothing more than to see if farmers had to bear. "the source said, from the current situation, the large farms Strong ability to take risks, losses have not yet reached the line, and the limited amount of small farmers herds, loss of basic controllable, so the possibility of starting direct state purchasing and storage is not large.
      
    In this regard, agriculture analyst Oriental Iger also said that after a few years ago reshuffle, many small farmers have quit, while large farmers the ability to take risks not only stronger, while the sensitivity of the price is not so high, more mostly in the pursuit of a long-term profit.
      
    The NDRC also no mention in the text will directly start purchasing and storage, more is inked on the market guidance "from herds situation, China's current production capacity in normal pig high level, the situation is still oversupply is likely to continue period of time. suggest that the majority of pig farmers based on market price movements, accelerate the elimination of part of the overage sow promote aquaculture restructuring. "
    Need to boost consumption, such as the second half of the pork market rebound or
      
    At the same time, the industry is also mostly said it does not expect the country to start purchasing and storage of special effects still need to pick up the entire market to boost consumption.
      
    "Today is a little pork went detail accumulated. Analogy, now Zhumiao prices continue to rise, feed prices have gone up too quickly, so regard the pig farmers raise very large, to apportion costs. On the other hand, a lot of places in consumer tastes changed, the demand for pig bones are larger than pork prices are higher, but to provide such a large bone, pigs must also supplies large, so the higher the cost, the more we To raise. "one says farmers, feeling the whole market into a" vicious circle. "
      
    This is also supported by the market situation, the new network aspects of animal husbandry, says that the recent nationwide hog slaughter capacity is still rising overall, due to the current cost of pork has fallen down the line, so that farmers produce contradiction, sell phenomenon but declined.
      
    When talking about the effect of the country to start purchasing and storage prop up the market, many people also said they were not expecting. "You think about it, the amount of state purchasing and storage of it have? Can solve millions head pretty good amount, but the amount of the country's so big, can play a role in how much prying. Additionally, pork reserves can only keep about six months, when the time is to put out. "In this regard, an industry source said," The most critical issue is the problem of stagnant consumption, since last year slaughter so big, but economic growth continue to put slow, too little consumption, thus causing pork prices so low, if consumption is able to come up, and what the policy is difficult to take effect. "
      
    Feng Yonghui domestic farmers and information specialists also said that this is the case for nearly 10 years, never seen before, a direct result of excess breeding stock oversupply. When the current national sow herd of about 50 million, and only fell to 47 million -4800 million head, it may be out of pig farming loss situation.
      
    Oriental Iger analyst also said that from the current situation, the price of pork in the first half of this year is immune to pick up and restore the entire market at least until the second half. ● Nanfang Daily reporter Zhong Xiao

    zhttp://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2014-01/27/c_126067472.htm
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

  • #2
    Re: China - Hog prices continued to decline

    Translation Google

    65,000 tons of frozen pork purchasing and storage work started 4 days 18 provincial pork still hit new lows

    2014年04月01日02:32
      
    Pork losing streak after 15 weeks, hit a three-year low, purchasing and storage policies pig market until finally shot.
      
    March 27, the Ministry of Commerce in conjunction with the Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance and other departments, the organization launched in 2014 the first batch of e-procurement bids central purchasing and storage of frozen pork reserve. It is understood that in the current round of nationwide purchasing and storage of purchasing and storage 65,000 tons, of which the northeast, Beijing and Tianjin, Hebei, cold storage purchasing and storage accounted for 18.9%, Shandong cold storage accounted for 20%. The industry believes that we can see the northeast, north, east area is the focus of the purchasing and storage.
      
    Foreign Ministry of Commerce document pointed out that the purpose of purchasing and storage of live pigs for hog prices fell further suppressed to protect the interests of farming households, to maintain market stability. But in fact, many believe that the hog industry insiders drop in price different from the past, purchasing and storage of converting up to the expected outcome can only play on the downward trend weak support. Search Network Feng Yonghui, chief analyst believes pigs, 3-4 years before the big round "pig cycle" has changed, and gradually evolved into a year round small "pig cycle."
      
    Shouchu limited long-term impact on pork
      
    In 2009, a total of 10 countries recorded purchasing and storage of frozen pork. Each occurred in pig grain purchasing and storage than after below equilibrium, often purchasing and storage size of 0.1% to 0.2% of the total consumption.
      
    June 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the launch of purchasing and storage of frozen pork. Prior to the acquisition, pig grain price has been below the breakeven for 4 weeks warning point, hog prices to the lowest level since November 2006. 2010, compared to the previous year, two months ahead of the purchasing and storage of frozen pork to start work. 2013 In early May, the state after four weeks of continuous pig grain price fell below the breakeven point 6:1, started the cyclical fluctuations in the market price of live pigs to ease regulation plan.
      
    This is several times reserve, are effectively reverse the decline in pork over the momentum of the hog market played a boost, reducing the pressure on pig farmers, stop in time. As a result, most of the pig farmers are anxiously waiting for purchasing and storage policy, hoping to give up power hog. Shandong and other places pig farmers even Adversity purchased sows, want a bet on the market outlook.
      
    However, from the start four days after purchasing and storage of frozen pork, March 31, 18 provinces hog prices continue to fall, the largest regional decline in Shanxi Province. Monitoring and early warning system to monitor pig Sichuan, Sichuan pig feed prices continue to fall, pig grain, feed ratio is close to the annual mid-May last year, the lowest point, breeding efficiency losses increase.
      
    "Purchasing and storage of frozen pork prices will enable faster signal transmission to the end-consumer market, while the pig farmers, the hard times will continue," Feng Yonghui that "due to the purchasing and storage size of total domestic consumption levels accounted for a very low, you can not change the domestic pig, pork fundamental supply and demand situation, and therefore the long-term impact on the pork is very limited, in previous years appears to stimulate purchasing and storage hog prices go just because of a few Shouchu point 5 to 6 months with pork seasonal rebound nodes coincide, if the country frequently purchasing and storage prop, so farmers become dependent on the policy, but will result in Bulan rose, is not conducive to improving the structure of supply and demand. "
      
    Hog prices continued downward pressure exists
      
    Hog prices are determined by the "cost, supply and demand," the three elements. Bulan sows and epidemic attacks are the two major factors affecting the supply of live pigs.
      
    As the degree of national scale pig industry structure generally improved during the 2013 case does not appear nationwide elimination of excess sow herds, and sow Bulan is very positive, the result is one of Bulan and domestic sow herds are in serious surplus.
      
    Feng Yonghui that in the past three years, hog market is not only below the equilibrium profit for three consecutive years, and the extent of losses year after year to deepen the off-season, season rebound declining, suggesting that 3-4 years round of big "pig cycle" pattern is changing, Because three consecutive years below the equilibrium profit, eventually there will one day eliminate excess capacity, hog market has grown from three to four years is a big cycle over a small period to one year.
      
    As the decisive factor in the pig cycle from cyclical changes in sow herds, so long as the sow herds did not complete elimination of excess capacity, the pig cycle of a real sense of loss will not end. Market analysts believe that the current pig production is still high, with the next few months is spending the off-season, the presence of continued downward pressure on hog prices.
      
    Oversupply, the market hit the market rules anti-pig carcasses, further illustrates the urgent development of modern agriculture. Feng Yonghui told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, walk-scale farming can better roads and pig farming in retail no pricing power, weak, high cost of farming defects should be in the form of mergers and acquisitions or form cooperatives, the formation of large regional or national pig breeding business, a planned production and sales, and optimizing the variety in the industry downturn, eliminate backward production capacity, waiting for the market to recover.
      
    In fact, the ups and downs ups and downs of the market hogs always follow the "Northeast lead the country," the law. Hebei Shenzhou pig farmers Han Ping told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, "hog price is always the first or the Northeast, then Henan, Shandong and other places, and finally transfer to the South China region."

    zhttp://finance.eastmoney.com/news/1350,20140401372953770.html
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

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