China - Ministry of Agriculture: "the uncertainty in the operation of domestic and foreign agricultural products markets has increased...be more calm" - August 26, 2020

[sharon sanders]

2020-08-26 09:53:51Beijing News




Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: my country's grain prices have risen with stability and corn prices have increased significantly



Beijing News Express News The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on the morning of August 26 to introduce the current situation of grain market operation and production, and answer questions from reporters.


Tang Ke, Director of the Department of Market Economy and Information, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Affected by the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, floods and shocks in international food prices, the operation of China's grain market has experienced periodic fluctuations, which has attracted widespread attention from the society. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continued to strengthen the monitoring of grain prices and the tracking and analysis of market supply and demand. On the whole, the current grain prices in my country are steadily rising, with different trends among varieties, and price fluctuations in different links. In July, the average price of rice, wheat, and corn in the three grain trade markets was 122.4 yuan per hundred catties, up 0.2% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year. Among them, the price of rice increased the least, followed by wheat, and the price of corn increased significantly. Food prices in the wholesale sector have increased significantly. my country's food prices remain stable on the whole, supported by three fundamental factors:


First, production is stable and improving . The key to the stability of the grain market is production. There have been good harvests of summer grain and early rice this year. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of summer grain this year was 285.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.42 billion jin; the output of early rice was 54.6 billion jin, an increase of 2.06 billion jin, and the output resumed after a decline for seven consecutive years. The annual rice and corn production mainly depends on autumn grains. Judging from the situation of the Ministry of Agriculture, the area of autumn grain has increased steadily this year. Although local droughts and floods have been severe, the recovery of production after the disaster is timely and effective. The growth of autumn grain is generally good, and the trend of stable and good grain production has not changed. If there are no major disasters in the later period, the whole year will be a bumper year.


The second is that grain stocks are abundant . With grain in hand, I don't panic. In recent years, my country’s ration inventory has continued to maintain a high level. The current national rice and wheat inventory levels are roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of urban and rural residents. Although the corn inventory is digested quickly, the market supply is guaranteed. After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, relevant departments have strengthened the release of reserves and emergency supply in a timely manner. The market supply is stable and orderly, and there is no shortage of food and oil in the market.


Third, consumption is relatively stable . As a daily necessities of life, consumption of grain is relatively rigid, and generally does not decrease or increase significantly during the year. Affected by the epidemic this year, home consumption of rations increased, but consumption out of homes decreased, and there was little change in total consumption; after the epidemic prevention and control situation continued to improve, corn feed and deep processing consumption recovered well, but actual demand increased. It is also relatively stable. In the early stage, some consumers and traders were hoarding grain, which will drive market demand fluctuations in the short term, but it will not change the trend of grain consumption. In other words, changes in short-term food demand will not have a sustained impact on food prices.


From the perspective of the later trend, China’s grain production and supply is completely guaranteed. We have a good foundation for ensuring the stable operation of grain prices. In addition, the supply of most bulk agricultural products such as corn and soybeans in the world is sufficient and the prices are low, and domestic grain prices are lacking. Under the conditions of a sharp increase, it is expected that China’s grain market is expected to remain basically stable as the autumn grain harvests are successively listed. In the next step, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will follow the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, based on disaster relief to win a bumper harvest, make every effort to capture a good harvest of autumn grain this year, and cooperate with relevant departments to regulate the grain market to ensure the "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets" of urban and rural residents. Provide strong support for the "six stability" work and the implementation of the "six guarantees" task.


Here, I want to emphasize one more point. In the context of the global pandemic of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the uncertainty in the operation of domestic and foreign agricultural products markets has increased. Some consumers buy more grains and oils out of risk prevention. Some food is understandable, but we must avoid following the trend to prevent waste caused by improper storage, and to prevent losses caused by price fluctuations in the later period. In fact, judging from the operation of China’s grain market during the first half of this year’s epidemic, due to sufficient grain reserves, a high level of grain and oil processing and transformation capacity, strong grain market regulation and emergency protection capabilities, coupled with a developed logistics distribution system, the domestic terminal grain and oil products The market supply is continuously abundant, and the price is basically stable. There is no need for consumers to be overly anxious or even panic to buy. They can be more calm and calm.

http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/08/26/762410.html

[Sally Furniss]

Protein shake up: China's demand for pork, sorghum, corn surges (Bloomberg)

China boosted imports of farm goods ranging from corn to pork to sorghum last month, signaling a demand recovery for protein in the world’s most-populous nation.

Imports of corn, used in animal feed by the world’s second-largest consumer, climbed to a three-year high in July as the country sought more supplies to plug a widening shortage and cool surging prices

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/p...065935725.html

[Sally Furniss]

Based on field and industry reporting, Fall Armyworm (FAW) has spread across the Yangtze River and entered central China, reaching the border of Henan Province earlier this growing season than it did during last season.

FAW’s movement to Northern China this year has occurred at least three months earlier than last year, making it highly likely that the pest will establish itself in Northeast China, the largest corn producing region in China. While some industry contacts and academics predict the country will suffer a corn deficit and corresponding soaring prices this year, the Chinese government released their official estimate that corn production will decline only 2.5 percent due to the pest

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi...0of_06-10-2020

[sharon sanders]

Also please see:

China leader targets ‘shocking’ food waste as China battles floods and pandemic supply problems - August 11, 2020

[sharon sanders]

2020-08-28 10:06:57Beijing News




Don’t worry about food security. Let’s not figure it out.



"There is food at home, so don't panic in my heart", this ancient life creed has become popular again in the 20th year of the 21st century.


In the context of the new crown pneumonia pandemic, Vietnam took the lead in releasing the news that it would ban the export of rice, and then changed its statement that it would control the export of rice. Egypt announced that it would stop exporting various bean products for three months, and Russia would ban wheat and rye. Export quotas have been restricted, and Cambodia has also banned the export of white rice and rice from April 5. In China, "strict economy and oppose waste" has become popular in the whole society, and the act of catering waste has put the brakes on emergency, which has also brought a lot of doubts and anxiety-is our ration still safe?

The food is really enough

How much grain can China produce in a year? This is the most critical data.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the total national grain output in 2019 was 663.84 million tons (about 660 million tons), an increase of 5.94 million tons over 2018, an increase of 0.9%, a record high. This is already the fifth consecutive year that my country's annual grain output has exceeded 650 million tons, and the performance is still very stable.

Calculated based on the annual grain output of 650 million tons, divided by my country’s 1.4 billion population, and then divided by 365 days, the figure is 0.00127 tons, and the conversion unit is jin, which is 2.54 jin. This means that the current annual grain production in our country is an average of 2.5 kilograms of grain per person per day.


As Li Guoxiang, director of the Agricultural Products Market and Trade Research Office of the Rural Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "Common sense of life tells us that in today's society, on average, a person eats 2.5 kilograms of grain a day, which is not eaten anyway." Generally speaking, , A person will not go hungry if he gets one catty of grain a day. What's more, this 2.5 catties is the average amount from babies to the elderly.


Don't forget that in addition to the newly harvested grain each year, there are also grain stocks from previous years. According to Wei Baigang, Director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at a press conference on April 4 of the State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism, my country’s current grain inventory consumption ratio is much higher than the 17%-18% level proposed by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. They are two major rations, wheat and rice stocks roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of the people of the country.

Where does the food come from?

The current situation is difficult, can this food supply be guaranteed? Many people worry about this.

The problem is not big. my country’s food sources are mainly self-produced and imported. The above-mentioned 650 million tons per year are all self-produced. This means that in an international environment where food exports are restricted by many countries and Sino-US relations are strained, we can still achieve self-sufficiency. of.

Many people should ask, will the severe floods in the south in the second half of the year affect the domestic grain harvest this year?

Here, the rational number of the Beijing News compiled the grain output of each province in 2019 and observed it in the form of a map.

The total national grain production in 2019 was 663.84 million tons (about 660 million tons). The top three contributing to this total are 75.03 million tons in Heilongjiang, 66.95 million tons in Henan and 53.57 million tons in Shandong. These three provinces accounted for 30% of the country's grain output. They are all northern provinces and were not greatly affected by the floods.

The next five places are Anhui in fourth place, Jilin in fifth place, Hebei in sixth place, Jiangsu in seventh place, and Inner Mongolia in eighth place. From this, it can be predicted that only the two southern provinces of Anhui and Jiangsu will be affected to some extent by the floods this year.

In fact, unlike the ancient "southern grain transportation to the north" in the land of fish and rice in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, my country's grain production center has long been shifted to the north, especially Heilongjiang. Thanks to the vast plains, Heilongjiang was able to use modern machinery to realize the large-scale production of commercial grains. For every 9 bowls of rice, one bowl comes from Heilongjiang. The ancient land of fish and rice in the south of the Yangtze River has become a densely populated and developed commercial city, and agriculture has regressed and followed. "Transporting grain from the north to the south" has become a new trend.

Is import dependence true?

Since the country can be self-sufficient, how can it import so much food every year? Some people have mistrust from this.

The import volume is indeed huge. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, my country's food imports in 2016 reached 11.467 million tons, an increase of 208.8% from 37.138 million tons in 2006. Over 100 million tons of grain imports each year, making my country the largest grain importer.

Here, we have to take a special kind of grain-soybeans, and talk about it.

Observing my country's grain import structure in 2018, it is not difficult to find that my country is importing a large amount of grain instead of a large amount of soybeans: imported soybeans account for 77% of the total weight of imported grain.

Why do we import so many soybeans?

Because the cultivation of soybeans in our country is deliberately suppressed. Observing the output of various grains in the past 20 years, it can be seen that the annual output of beans is much lower than that of wheat, rice and corn.

There are two reasons for this. First, compared with rice and wheat, soybeans are not the main food of the Chinese people. With limited land, soybeans have to make room for rice and wheat. Second, soybeans are resource-intensive, and the yield per unit is only half of that of corn and wheat. According to the data of 2019, China can only achieve self-sufficiency if it takes out 47% of the land.

Since soybeans occupies land, is low-yield, and are not the main ration, it is not as cost-effective as direct import. At present, the main purpose of my country's imported soybeans is not human rations, but 75%-80% are used to produce soybean meal (that is, animal feed). Soybean is a grain rich in protein. Pigs can grow 1 catty of meat for every 2.7 catties of feed, while chickens can grow 1 catty of meat or produce 1 catty of eggs for every 2 catties of feed.

What about the world situation?

The fact that domestic food is in a safe state does not mean that the whole world is like this.

A recent report jointly issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, the World Food Program and other institutions shows that the new crown pneumonia epidemic may cause a significant increase in the number of hungry people in the world in 2020. This year, 130 million hungry people will be added. 690 million people in the world will be hungry. The United Nations research report even issued a warning that the world ushered in the worst food crisis in 50 years.

Before the COVID-19 epidemic, many people on the planet were hungry. According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FSIN), in 2019, people with severe food shortages affected 55 countries and regions, and 135 million people worldwide were affected. Among them, more than half of the affected population is concentrated in Africa. Moreover, in modern society, “man-made disasters” are more fearful than “natural disasters”: extreme weather is no longer the main cause of famine, and regional conflicts and economic shocks are more likely to bring about food crises.

The tension in the international food situation has also spread to the country: According to statistics from the State Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves, as of August 5, the total purchase of 42.857 million tons of wheat in the main producing areas, a year-on-year decrease of 9.383 million tons. This data has caused panic among many people.


In fact, the reduction in purchases is not the reduction in output. Shang Jinsuo, director of the Hebei Baixiang Grain Depot, believes that an important reason for the year-on-year decline in grain purchases this year is that farmers are generally reluctant to sell them. Under the background of the normalization of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, farmers realize the importance of food security and according to market conditions Choose when to sell grain to maximize the income of growing grain.

http://www.bjnews.com.cn/graphic/2020/08/28/763202.html