Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

China - Improvement in shortage of electrical power expected in late Autumn in Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places - August 22, 2022

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • China - Improvement in shortage of electrical power expected in late Autumn in Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places - August 22, 2022


    Expert: This round of power shortage will not affect the cycle too long


    August 22, 2022 at 16:51




      The reason for the lack of electricity this time is different from last year, and the impact is also different. We have three overall judgments: first, the impact period will not be too long, and power supply and industrial production are expected to see improvement after entering late autumn and the subtropical high pressure weakens; second, the impact scope will not be too wide, and it will have an impact on the overall power supply pattern in the country limited; third, the degree of impact will not be too large, and it is expected to have a 0.4-0.6% impact on national industrial production in August.
      Recently, due to the shortage of power supply in Sichuan, Chongqing, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, notices on orderly electricity consumption have been issued successively, requiring some industrial enterprises to use electricity in an orderly manner and off-peak electricity consumption to ensure normal electricity consumption by residents. The market has certain concerns about the current industrial production due to the association of the power curtailment incident in many places caused by the dual control of energy consumption and the shortage of coal supply in September last year.
      However, we believe that the causes of the two power shortages are different, and their effects cannot be compared. This power shortage is caused by extreme weather. We judge that the cycle is short, which will have a short-term impact on the industrial production of local regions and some industries, but the impact on the overall situation is limited. With the weakening of the subtropical high (hereinafter referred to as the "subtropical high"), the power supply and industrial production are expected to see a turnaround in the late autumn and the weakening of the subtropical high.
      1. How long will the power shortage in Sichuan last?
      The cause determines the continuity of the power outage.
      For example, in our article "The Truth of Energy that Can't Be Ignored" a year ago , the northward shift of the rainfall belt and the dislocation of the installed hydropower capacity are the fundamental reasons for this power shortage.
      According to the August press conference of the China Meteorological Administration, since the beginning of summer this year, the subtropical high pressure in the northern hemisphere has been stronger and larger than the same period of the previous year, resulting in sustained high temperature and heat wave events in many parts of the northern hemisphere.
      The essence of the power shortage in Sichuan this time is that the demand for electricity has surged in extreme high temperature and dry weather, and the power supply and demand are doubled due to the superimposed water shortage. According to the "Sichuan Daily" report on the Sichuan Electric Power Supply Guarantee and Scheduling Meeting on August 15, the superposition of the three "most" has led to short-term power supply and demand in Sichuan:
      One "most" is that Sichuan is facing the highest extreme high temperature in the same period in history. Taking Chengdu as an example, since the beginning of summer this year, the highest temperature has repeatedly exceeded the historical peak for the same period, and it has continued to rise since early August. From August 7 to 19, the highest temperature in Chengdu exceeded the historical peak by an average of 4 degrees Celsius.

      The second "most" is that Sichuan faces the lowest precipitation during the same period in history. Monitoring data from the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration shows that from August 9 to 18, the precipitation in southern my country was significantly lower than the historical average for the same period, especially in Sichuan and Chongqing, which are in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, even more than 80% lower than the historical average.
      The three "most" is that Sichuan faces the highest power load in the same period in history. According to the Sichuan Electric Power Supply Guarantee and Dispatching Association, the largest electricity load in Sichuan this year will increase by 25% compared with the same period last year.
      Sichuan's power generation structure is heavily dependent on hydropower, and the impact of drought on power supply is obvious. Sichuan's annual power generation in 2021 will be 433 billion kWh, of which hydropower will account for 353.1 billion kWh, accounting for as high as 82%, while hydropower accounts for only 15% of the national power generation during the same period. From the perspective of installed power generation capacity, as of June this year, hydropower accounted for 77% of the power generation equipment capacity of power plants of 6,000 kilowatts and above in Sichuan, while thermal power only 16%, which means that thermal power is difficult to hedge even at full capacity. Gap in water and electricity.

      The extreme of extreme climate is mainly reflected in the temperature and precipitation in a certain period of time beyond the historical statistical range, but it will not last forever. With the gradual entry of late autumn and the weakening of the subtropical high, the situation of power shortage will be improved after the temperature drops and the water supply recovers. This is fundamentally different from the imbalance between power supply and demand caused by dual control of energy consumption + coal shortage in September 2021.
      2. How much electricity is missing in Sichuan this year?
      Compared with previous years, Sichuan's hydropower generation has been at a relatively high level this year. From January to July this year, Sichuan's hydropower output totaled 201.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 22%, significantly higher than the same period in previous years. We believe that this may be directly related to the increase in the amount of electricity sent to Sichuan in the context of energy supply. From January to July this year, Sichuan exported a total of 97.7 billion kWh of electricity to other provinces, an increase of 47% year-on-year.

      Power generation in Sichuan has already been hit by the dry weather in July. Under normal circumstances, the third quarter is the peak season for hydropower generation in Sichuan. From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of hydropower generation in Sichuan from July to September was 90%, 89%, and 92% respectively, which was significantly higher than that in the first half of the year. In July this year, while hydropower generation was still rising, the proportion of hydropower in Sichuan dropped significantly to only 85%, 5 percentage points lower than the seasonal level. This means that since July, Sichuan has been using other power generation methods to supplement hydropower, indicating that under the current circumstances, Sichuan's utilization of hydropower has basically been full.
      In July, the average inflow flow of the Three Gorges Reservoir was 17,000 cubic meters per second, only 65% ​​of the same period in 2021, which is basically in line with the "Sichuan Daily" said that "the inflow of Sichuan in July is 40% dry". In July, the hydropower generation in Sichuan was 46.4 billion kWh, which was 118% of the same period last year. According to the "Sichuan Daily" that "the water inflow in Sichuan was 50% dry in August", the hydropower generation in Sichuan in August is expected to be 98% of the same period last year, or 38.5 billion kWh.
      According to the calculation results, the hydropower generation in Sichuan in August this year is expected to be basically the same as the same period in 2021 under the condition of making full use of hydropower and no water abandonment. In other words, the power gap in Sichuan in August this year will mainly come from the demand for electricity, rather than the supply of hydropower.
      The increase in demand in the province is expected to bring about an electricity gap of 8 billion kWh. In August 2021, Sichuan's electricity consumption was 32.1 billion kWh. If the largest electricity load in Sichuan this year increased by 25% compared with the same period last year, according to the estimates of the Sichuan Electric Power Supply Guarantee and Dispatch Committee, Sichuan's electricity consumption in August this year is estimated About 40 billion kWh, about 8 billion kWh more than the same period in 2021.
      Thermal power is expected to fill at least the 2.4 billion kWh gap. In July, the decline of hydropower generation in Sichuan has been initially reflected, and it has been hedged by increasing the scale of thermal power generation. Sichuan's thermal power generation in July increased by 2.4 billion kWh compared with the same period last year. Under conservative estimates, the additional power generation that thermal power can provide in August should be at least the same as in July.

      Therefore, taking into account the full use of hydropower and thermal power, and the 25% year-on-year increase in Sichuan's electricity load, it is estimated that the electricity shortfall in Sichuan in August will be about 5.6 billion kWh, accounting for about the same period in 2021. Sichuan's electricity consumption 17% of the electricity consumption in Sichuan province, accounting for about 11% of the electricity consumption in Sichuan province.
      3. How big is the impact of this power outage?
      1. Overall judgment:
      First, we give three general judgments:
      First, the period of influence will not be too long. The extremely hot and dry climate will not continue endlessly. After the temperature and precipitation recover, the contradiction between power supply and demand will also converge. The climate is clearly more resilient than the recovery of coal supplies.
      Second, the scope of influence will not be too broad. my country's overall power supply is dominated by thermal power, so in September 2021, coal shortage + dual control of energy consumption will have an impact on most provinces that rely on thermal power. This year's drought has had a major impact on hydropower in Sichuan and Chongqing. This year, the coal supply is relatively abundant and thermal power is operating normally, so the impact on the country's overall power supply pattern is limited.
      However, since Sichuan is still a major province of electricity delivery, in the first half of 2022, Sichuan's electricity delivery accounted for 9% of the country's electricity delivery, second only to Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. If the power shortage in Sichuan is further exacerbated and it is necessary to negotiate to reduce the amount of electricity sent to the outside world, some eastern provinces that originally accepted the power transmission from west to east may be indirectly affected.

      Third, the degree of impact will not be too great. According to the above calculations, after considering the electricity consumption in Sichuan Province and the electricity sent to the outside world, the shortfall accounts for about 11% of the electricity consumption in the same period last year. In addition, other provinces have begun to provide power assistance to Sichuan, and the actual gap in Sichuan will be further reduced, which is equivalent to sharing Sichuan's power gap with multiple provinces, and the impact will not be too great.
      2. Industry influence:
      Second, we try to analyze which industries are likely to be relatively more affected.
      First, which industries consume the most electricity? Considering that the production and supply of electricity, heat, fuel, and water have livelihood attributes, we only examine mining and manufacturing. Analysis of the power consumption data of various industries in the country in 2020, metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical product manufacturing, non-metallic mineral manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing consume 13,918, 8,810, 3,930, and 180.3 billion kWh of power respectively, accounting for mining + manufacturing power. 32%, 20%, 9%, and 4% of the total consumption, accounting for a total of 65%.

      Second, which products are produced more in Sichuan? According to Sichuan's 2017 input-output table, in the mining and manufacturing industries, the total output of electronic equipment such as food and tobacco, chemical products, communication computers, and transportation equipment is relatively high, accounting for the total output of Sichuan's mining and manufacturing industries, respectively. 18%, 13%, 11%, and 9% of the total output, accounting for a total of 51%.
      Since it is currently impossible to know the power rationing list in Sichuan's orderly electricity consumption plan, it is impossible to accurately determine which industries are more affected. But logically, there are two ways of thinking:
      First, from the perspective of maximizing efficiency, priority should be given to restricting electricity consumption in high-power-consuming industries. Therefore, industries with high power consumption such as metal smelting and rolling, chemical product manufacturing, non-metallic mineral manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing will bear the brunt.
      Second, from the perspective of maximizing fairness, electricity consumption should be limited on average across all industries. Therefore, industries with a large output in Sichuan, such as food and tobacco manufacturing, chemical product manufacturing, communication computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and transportation equipment manufacturing industries, will be more affected.
      Under the two ideas, there is overlap between the chemical product manufacturing industry and the transportation equipment manufacturing industry . Therefore, no matter what power curtailment plan is adopted, these two industries will likely be greatly affected.
      3. Quantitative analysis:
      Finally, we try to quantitatively measure the impact of the power shortage in Sichuan on industrial production in four cases.
      The two basic assumptions are: 1) The hydropower shock in Sichuan will last until the end of August; 2) The static calculation does not consider the indirect shock caused by the transmission of the industrial chain.
      We build four scenarios through two dimensions:
      The first dimension is fairness and efficiency. In the case of efficiency priority, each industry bears the duration of power curtailment according to the proportion of power consumption; in the case of fairness priority, each industry assumes the average duration of power curtailment.
      The second dimension is whether to share the electricity gap with the delivery province. In the case of Sichuan alone bearing the shortfall, the electricity shortfall accounted for 17% of Sichuan's electricity consumption in the same period last year; in the case of sharing the shortfall with the delivery provinces, the electricity shortfall accounted for 11% of Sichuan's electricity consumption in the same period last year. After sharing, the industrial production of the provinces receiving the delivery is expected to be indirectly affected, but the impact on a single province is relatively controllable after considering the sharing of multiple provinces, so we only consider the impact on industrial production in Sichuan.

      The basic idea of ​​calculation is:
      The first step is to calculate the proportion of the power curtailment time borne by various industrial sectors in Sichuan under different scenarios;
      The second step is to calculate the degree of production loss of various industries in Sichuan compared with the same period last year according to the proportion of power rationing time undertaken by each industry and the proportion of electricity gap in Sichuan’s electricity consumption in the same period last year;
      In the third step, according to the proportion of the output of various industries in Sichuan in the country, calculate the degree of loss of the production of various industries in the country compared with the same period last year, and add up to obtain the degree of impact on the production of the national mining industry + manufacturing industry.
      According to our calculations, the power shortage in Sichuan may have an impact of 0.37%-0.57% on the national industrial production in August, which is relatively small. In terms of industry, if Sichuan takes the practice of giving priority to restricting electricity consumption in high-power-consuming industries, it will have a relatively large impact on the metal smelting and rolling processing industry, and the chemical manufacturing industry, which may cause 0.09%-0.14%, 0.07%-0.11% impact respectively, In the case of Sichuan's independent responsibility for the electricity consumption gap, the impact is larger, and the sharing of multiple provinces will reduce the impact.



    zhttps://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-08-22/doc-imizmscv7251031.shtml

  • #2
    bump this

    Comment


    • #3

      Dazhou, Sichuan facing power shortage amid ongoing heatwave
      By GT staff reportersPublished: Aug 23, 2022 09:59 PM

      snip

      Complaints and dissatisfaction have been voiced by local residents over the power shortage. Relevant topics on Sina Weibo, China’s Twitter-like social media, have received 170 million views as of press time.

      “The city has been without power for 6-7 hours a day in the last week. Many people could not fall asleep at night due to the hot weather so they came out on to the street or bridges to cool themselves down,” a Dazhou resident surnamed Huang told the Global Times on Tuesday.

      Huang said his milk tea shop was also temporally closed due to the lack of electricity.

      According to a plan for electricity saving that Dazhou authorities issued on Saturday, 98 high-load energy enterprises in the city had all stopped production, with only the security load retained.

      more...

      zhttps://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1273699.shtml

      Comment


      • #4

        China’s power shortage leaves 1 million electric cars, 400,000 stations in search of the jolt to charge their batteries
        • EV sales will in fact rise in the next three to four months, before Beijing cancels cash subsidies next year, industry watcher says
        • State Grid has not yet said when power cuts at charging stations will end


        Daniel Ren in Shanghai
        + FOLLOW

        Published: 7:30am, 24 Aug, 2022

        China’s spreading power shortage is affecting more than 1 million electric vehicles (EVs) because of reduced power supply at about 400,000 public charging facilities, but is not expected to dent demand for battery-powered cars.

        State Grid, the country’s largest electricity distributor, has since last Thursday reduced power supply between the peak hours of 3pm to 10pm everyday at public facilities in Zhejiang, Hubei, Sichuan and Henan provinces and Chongqing municipality. It also suspended operations at some charging facilities during these hours.

        more...

        https://www.scmp.com/business/china-...gtype=homepage

        Comment


        • #5


          Gazprom

          ⚙️ From 22 to 29 September, planned maintenance work will be carried out at the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. During this period, gas transportation will be temporarily suspended.

          In accordance with the Gas Purchase and Sale Agreement for the Eastern Route between Gazprom and the Chinese company CNPC, preventive maintenance of the equipment and systems of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline is carried out twice a year: in spring and autumn.

          t.me/gazprom/921
          25.7KviewsSep 20 at 03:07[


          ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Gazprom Halts Pipeline Gas Deliveries To China For A Week

          By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 20, 2022, 10:00 AM CDT

          Gazprom will suspend natural gas deliveries via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China between September 22 and 29 due to scheduled preventive maintenance, the Russian gas giant said on Tuesday.

          The Power of Siberia pipeline went into operation at the end of 2019, after eight years of construction.

          Under the sales and purchase agreement between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for gas supply via the route, preventive maintenance of the equipment along the pipeline is carried out twice a year, once in the spring and once in the autumn, Gazprom said today.

          more....

          https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...or-A-Week.html

          Comment

          Working...
          X