Local power shortages are coming, and many places have limited power and production. Can new energy solve the urgent need for power shortages?
August 6, 2021
A battle to defend Henan's power coal quietly started in the railway sector.
Before the 7.20 rainstorm hit Henan, the "lack of electricity" has become a problem that plagued the local manufacturing industry. The Henan Development and Reform Commission had to "limit the export of electric coal" to ensure the power supply in the province.
However, during heavy rains, such supply is at stake. The railway quickly activated an emergency supply mechanism for electric coal, and formulated a transportation plan in accordance with the "one enterprise, one policy", and transported 60 trains of electric coal from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions to Henan every day. , Carry out a point-to-point precise guarantee for Henan power coal supply.
However, in more places, the problem of power shortage still exists. It is understood that currently, the regional power grids in East China and Central China, as well as 11 provincial power grids in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, and Guangxi, have reached historical highs.
In order to ensure power consumption during peak periods, the State Grid has increased the degree of power transmission across regions, and the cross-region power transmission capacity during the peak period exceeded 100 million kilowatts for the first time. At the same time, manufacturing industries such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have successively shifted peaks and restricted production due to new highs in electricity load. Even Yunnan, a major power generation province, issued a second power rationing order this summer.
At the same time, many places have also begun to develop renewable energy planning and construction. While ensuring the supply of coal power, they will focus more on renewable energy planning policies, major project construction, and energy and people's livelihood protection. Currently, Guangdong has begun to construct renewable energy systems such as offshore wind power and solar power.
In the eyes of industry insiders, the importance of coal power is unshakable in a short period of time, but focusing on renewable energy can not only alleviate the power shortage problem every summer to a large extent, but is also vital to the realization of my country’s “dual carbon” .
Electricity demand soared
With the rapid economic recovery, this year's power shortage is also exceptionally early. Guangdong, a major manufacturing province, was the first to lack power.
As early as May this year, the load of the Guangdong Power Grid hit a record high. Data show that in the first half of this year, the total social consumption in Guangdong increased by 22.89% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 9.7%.
This is the first time that Guangdong's electricity load has a gap after the global financial crisis. In response to this, Guangdong had to limit electricity across the province.
But the lack of electricity in Guangdong is just the beginning.
On July 14, Jiangsu power grid dispatching load hit a record high, breaking through 120 million for the first time, setting a record high, reaching 120.4 million kilowatts, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. In order to ensure the safety of electricity consumption during the summer peak period, the local government has introduced various response measures to guide industrial users, commercial buildings, energy storage power stations, electric vehicles and other users to actively declare and participate in power demand response, and do a good job in the implementation of peak electricity prices. Prioritize market-oriented means to alleviate the contradiction between power supply and demand.
Hubei has also launched power demand response for the first time. At present, more than 500 power customers in Hubei have signed response agreements, and initially reserve an adjustable load of about 1.8 million kilowatts.
"The appearance of the electricity shortage is that the supply side is affected by the weather and the policy tightening has led to insufficient production capacity. In fact, it is more of the demand side growth." Soochow Research Institute analyst Yao Pei said.
However, as the "electricity shortage" in various provinces hits, plans for the resumption of manufacturing capacity may be affected.
According to forecasts, Jiangsu may have a power supply gap of 4.25 million to 9.25 million kilowatts; Zhejiang is expected to have a short-term power supply gap of about 2 million kilowatts during the summer peak power balance; Shandong is expected to have a short-term power supply gap of 2 million kilowatts during the peak summer period this year; Guangdong in the second quarter Electricity in the province may have a maximum load gap of about 7.6 million kilowatts.
"With the continued economic recovery and the liberalization of consumption scenarios, the electricity shortage may continue for a period of time." Yao Pei said.
It is worth noting that Mongolia, the main coal producing area, and Yunnan, the main force in power transmission from west to east, are also facing power shortages this year.
Inner Mongolia, which experienced power cuts in June, issued a red and orange warning for orderly power consumption again in mid-July.
Yunnan had already experienced a power rationing earlier in May. Due to the serious overdraft of Yunnan's main reservoirs, the continuous decline of coal storage in thermal power, and the serious decline in power generation, there was a power gap of about 700,000 kilowatts at the peak of electricity consumption. The local government had to require enterprises to suspend peak-to-peak power for emergency, and the peak-to-peak power limit is 10%-30%.
In July, Yunnan ushered in the second power cut this summer, and zinc and tin smelters have received a notice requesting a 25% reduction in electricity consumption.
But supply is still tight.
In fact, in the first half of this year, Yunnan’s thermal power generation has reached its best level this year, but demand is still in short supply. According to documents from the Yunnan Electric Power Mobilization and Control Center, the current available days for coal storage in thermal power are less than 10 days, the start-up capacity and effective output of thermal power accounts for a low proportion of installed capacity, and thermal power generation is seriously worse than expected. Currently, thermal power plants in Yunnan have been shutting down one after another, and new energy power generation has fallen sharply compared with the previous period, and the province's power supply gap has further expanded. In addition, the west-to-east power transmission still needs to be implemented. Therefore, Yunnan local has to increase coal to ensure power, and coordinate and optimize the power transmission from west to east in Yunnan, and dynamically adjust the scale of orderly power consumption according to the power gap.
Fully guarantee supply
It is understood that in addition to the surge in demand, another important reason for the lack of electricity is the high coal price.
Due to the current surge in electricity consumption, coal demand exceeds supply, and prices continue to rise. Take the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal produced by Qingang (03369) Shanxi as an example. The average price in 2020 is 571 yuan/ton, and the average price from January to June 2021 is 780 yuan/ton, and the average price has remained at 920 yuan in the past month. Around RMB/ton.
Under the high prices, many power plants deliberately control the quantity and scale of procurement to prevent coal prices from being pulled up again. Despite the overall low inventory of power plants, it still maintains a rigid pull, that is, replenishes as much as it consumes. It also reduces bidding and procurement of coal in the high-priced market, looking forward to national policy intervention.
In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an instruction as early as mid-July to ensure a stable supply of thermal coal and not allow coal shortages and shutdowns. At the same time, all regions are also improving the peak and valley tariff policies, strengthening market adjustment methods, and stimulating more users to respond and be proactive.
The effect has begun to bear fruit. At present, the power shortage in Guangdong has been alleviated.
At the same time, a larger energy layout has been launched. At present, in the context of the "dual carbon" target, all regions are also beginning to build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline propose that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's energy consumption intensity will be reduced by 13.5%, resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects, and promote green transformation to achieve positive development.
For example, in Guangdong, we will promote the construction of key power supply projects and delivery projects, and focus on the promotion of offshore wind power, photovoltaic power generation and gas turbine cogeneration projects to help the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the energy transformation and upgrading of Guangdong Province. According to the plan, in the next 5 years, Guangdong will promote the completion and commissioning of provincial-managed wind power projects with an installed capacity of over 8 million kilowatts, build a base of 10 million kilowatts in eastern Guangdong, accelerate the large-scale application of large-capacity units of 8 megawatts and above, and promote offshore wind power to achieve parity on the Internet. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total investment in Guangdong is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
In fact, at present, the scale of my country's renewable energy installed capacity is steadily expanding. As of the end of June this year, the national installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 971 million kilowatts. Among them, hydropower installed capacity is 378 million kilowatts (of which pumped storage is 32.14 million kilowatts), wind power installed capacity is 292 million kilowatts, photovoltaic power generation capacity is 268 million kilowatts, and biomass power generation capacity is 33.19 million kilowatts.
"In the future, the SASAC will guide central enterprises to strictly control the consumption of fossil energy, actively develop non-fossil energy, develop hydropower according to local conditions, accelerate the development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and actively and orderly develop nuclear power. Build a new type of power with new energy as the main body System, coordinate and promote the development of the whole chain of'production, transportation, storage and use' of hydrogen energy." Peng Huagang, Secretary-General of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and spokesman, said a few days ago.
From the perspective of industry insiders, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have set new boundaries for the reform and development of electric power, and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body puts forward new requirements. How to ensure power security in the next 10 and 40 years Stable supply requires systematic research and top-level design to form a realistic and scientific overall solution, which will be implemented and continuously dynamically evaluated, adjusted and improved.
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