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China - "Electricity shortage" in various provinces hits, plans for the resumption of manufacturing capacity may be affected, "an unprecedented 'power outage wave' is spreading across the country." - August 6+

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  • China - "Electricity shortage" in various provinces hits, plans for the resumption of manufacturing capacity may be affected, "an unprecedented 'power outage wave' is spreading across the country." - August 6+

    Local power shortages are coming, and many places have limited power and production. Can new energy solve the urgent need for power shortages?

    August 6, 2021

    A battle to defend Henan's power coal quietly started in the railway sector.
    Before the 7.20 rainstorm hit Henan, the "lack of electricity" has become a problem that plagued the local manufacturing industry. The Henan Development and Reform Commission had to "limit the export of electric coal" to ensure the power supply in the province.
    However, during heavy rains, such supply is at stake. The railway quickly activated an emergency supply mechanism for electric coal, and formulated a transportation plan in accordance with the "one enterprise, one policy", and transported 60 trains of electric coal from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions to Henan every day. , Carry out a point-to-point precise guarantee for Henan power coal supply.
    However, in more places, the problem of power shortage still exists. It is understood that currently, the regional power grids in East China and Central China, as well as 11 provincial power grids in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Shaanxi, and Guangxi, have reached historical highs.
    In order to ensure power consumption during peak periods, the State Grid has increased the degree of power transmission across regions, and the cross-region power transmission capacity during the peak period exceeded 100 million kilowatts for the first time. At the same time, manufacturing industries such as Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong have successively shifted peaks and restricted production due to new highs in electricity load. Even Yunnan, a major power generation province, issued a second power rationing order this summer.
    At the same time, many places have also begun to develop renewable energy planning and construction. While ensuring the supply of coal power, they will focus more on renewable energy planning policies, major project construction, and energy and people's livelihood protection. Currently, Guangdong has begun to construct renewable energy systems such as offshore wind power and solar power.
    In the eyes of industry insiders, the importance of coal power is unshakable in a short period of time, but focusing on renewable energy can not only alleviate the power shortage problem every summer to a large extent, but is also vital to the realization of my country’s “dual carbon” .
    Electricity demand soared
    With the rapid economic recovery, this year's power shortage is also exceptionally early. Guangdong, a major manufacturing province, was the first to lack power.
    As early as May this year, the load of the Guangdong Power Grid hit a record high. Data show that in the first half of this year, the total social consumption in Guangdong increased by 22.89% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 9.7%.
    This is the first time that Guangdong's electricity load has a gap after the global financial crisis. In response to this, Guangdong had to limit electricity across the province.
    But the lack of electricity in Guangdong is just the beginning.
    On July 14, Jiangsu power grid dispatching load hit a record high, breaking through 120 million for the first time, setting a record high, reaching 120.4 million kilowatts, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. In order to ensure the safety of electricity consumption during the summer peak period, the local government has introduced various response measures to guide industrial users, commercial buildings, energy storage power stations, electric vehicles and other users to actively declare and participate in power demand response, and do a good job in the implementation of peak electricity prices. Prioritize market-oriented means to alleviate the contradiction between power supply and demand.
    Hubei has also launched power demand response for the first time. At present, more than 500 power customers in Hubei have signed response agreements, and initially reserve an adjustable load of about 1.8 million kilowatts.
    "The appearance of the electricity shortage is that the supply side is affected by the weather and the policy tightening has led to insufficient production capacity. In fact, it is more of the demand side growth." Soochow Research Institute analyst Yao Pei said.
    However, as the "electricity shortage" in various provinces hits, plans for the resumption of manufacturing capacity may be affected.
    According to forecasts, Jiangsu may have a power supply gap of 4.25 million to 9.25 million kilowatts; Zhejiang is expected to have a short-term power supply gap of about 2 million kilowatts during the summer peak power balance; Shandong is expected to have a short-term power supply gap of 2 million kilowatts during the peak summer period this year; Guangdong in the second quarter Electricity in the province may have a maximum load gap of about 7.6 million kilowatts.
    "With the continued economic recovery and the liberalization of consumption scenarios, the electricity shortage may continue for a period of time." Yao Pei said.
    It is worth noting that Mongolia, the main coal producing area, and Yunnan, the main force in power transmission from west to east, are also facing power shortages this year.
    Inner Mongolia, which experienced power cuts in June, issued a red and orange warning for orderly power consumption again in mid-July.
    Yunnan had already experienced a power rationing earlier in May. Due to the serious overdraft of Yunnan's main reservoirs, the continuous decline of coal storage in thermal power, and the serious decline in power generation, there was a power gap of about 700,000 kilowatts at the peak of electricity consumption. The local government had to require enterprises to suspend peak-to-peak power for emergency, and the peak-to-peak power limit is 10%-30%.
    In July, Yunnan ushered in the second power cut this summer, and zinc and tin smelters have received a notice requesting a 25% reduction in electricity consumption.
    But supply is still tight.
    In fact, in the first half of this year, Yunnan’s thermal power generation has reached its best level this year, but demand is still in short supply. According to documents from the Yunnan Electric Power Mobilization and Control Center, the current available days for coal storage in thermal power are less than 10 days, the start-up capacity and effective output of thermal power accounts for a low proportion of installed capacity, and thermal power generation is seriously worse than expected. Currently, thermal power plants in Yunnan have been shutting down one after another, and new energy power generation has fallen sharply compared with the previous period, and the province's power supply gap has further expanded. In addition, the west-to-east power transmission still needs to be implemented. Therefore, Yunnan local has to increase coal to ensure power, and coordinate and optimize the power transmission from west to east in Yunnan, and dynamically adjust the scale of orderly power consumption according to the power gap.
    Fully guarantee supply
    It is understood that in addition to the surge in demand, another important reason for the lack of electricity is the high coal price.
    Due to the current surge in electricity consumption, coal demand exceeds supply, and prices continue to rise. Take the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal produced by Qingang (03369) Shanxi as an example. The average price in 2020 is 571 yuan/ton, and the average price from January to June 2021 is 780 yuan/ton, and the average price has remained at 920 yuan in the past month. Around RMB/ton.
    Under the high prices, many power plants deliberately control the quantity and scale of procurement to prevent coal prices from being pulled up again. Despite the overall low inventory of power plants, it still maintains a rigid pull, that is, replenishes as much as it consumes. It also reduces bidding and procurement of coal in the high-priced market, looking forward to national policy intervention.
    In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an instruction as early as mid-July to ensure a stable supply of thermal coal and not allow coal shortages and shutdowns. At the same time, all regions are also improving the peak and valley tariff policies, strengthening market adjustment methods, and stimulating more users to respond and be proactive.
    The effect has begun to bear fruit. At present, the power shortage in Guangdong has been alleviated.
    At the same time, a larger energy layout has been launched. At present, in the context of the "dual carbon" target, all regions are also beginning to build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
    The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the 2035 long-term goal outline propose that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's energy consumption intensity will be reduced by 13.5%, resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects, and promote green transformation to achieve positive development.
    For example, in Guangdong, we will promote the construction of key power supply projects and delivery projects, and focus on the promotion of offshore wind power, photovoltaic power generation and gas turbine cogeneration projects to help the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the energy transformation and upgrading of Guangdong Province. According to the plan, in the next 5 years, Guangdong will promote the completion and commissioning of provincial-managed wind power projects with an installed capacity of over 8 million kilowatts, build a base of 10 million kilowatts in eastern Guangdong, accelerate the large-scale application of large-capacity units of 8 megawatts and above, and promote offshore wind power to achieve parity on the Internet. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total investment in Guangdong is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.
    In fact, at present, the scale of my country's renewable energy installed capacity is steadily expanding. As of the end of June this year, the national installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 971 million kilowatts. Among them, hydropower installed capacity is 378 million kilowatts (of which pumped storage is 32.14 million kilowatts), wind power installed capacity is 292 million kilowatts, photovoltaic power generation capacity is 268 million kilowatts, and biomass power generation capacity is 33.19 million kilowatts.
    "In the future, the SASAC will guide central enterprises to strictly control the consumption of fossil energy, actively develop non-fossil energy, develop hydropower according to local conditions, accelerate the development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and actively and orderly develop nuclear power. Build a new type of power with new energy as the main body System, coordinate and promote the development of the whole chain of'production, transportation, storage and use' of hydrogen energy." Peng Huagang, Secretary-General of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and spokesman, said a few days ago.
    From the perspective of industry insiders, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have set new boundaries for the reform and development of electric power, and the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body puts forward new requirements. How to ensure power security in the next 10 and 40 years Stable supply requires systematic research and top-level design to form a realistic and scientific overall solution, which will be implemented and continuously dynamically evaluated, adjusted and improved.


  • #2

    Big power shortage in the three provinces of Northeast China! Manufacturing, electricity, and local governments have all reached the threshold

    2021-09-26 21:41:17

    An unprecedented "power outage wave" is spreading across the country.
    The most influential is the three provinces in the northeast and the coldest in China.
    In recent days, there have been no notices of sudden power outages in many parts of the Northeast. In some places, there were several outages a day, and in some places, outages exceeded 12 hours. The blackout areas are mostly concentrated in prefecture-level cities and rural areas.
    Some netizens joked, why can't the Northeast rationing be hot search, because they can't access the Internet.
    Although it is a joke, how big is the impact of a large-scale blackout in a modern society?
    Needless to say, the most obvious lighting problem is that you can’t play with your mobile phone, you can’t connect to the Internet, you can’t use rice cookers and water heaters. To be more serious, there are more problems with the survival of traffic chaos and heating.
    In Shenyang, the traffic lights were cut off due to power cuts, which caused congestion.

    A local friend said, “I just climbed the 19th floor and got home yesterday, but I couldn’t get through to the elderly at home. Afterwards, the northeast is getting colder and colder. There are already many elderly people in the northeast, so I really don’t know what to do.”
    This afternoon, "the peak power consumption of the three provinces in the East and the peak of power rationing" boarded the second most searched Weibo. The State Grid also responded, stating that the Northeast region has implemented orderly electricity consumption for non-residents first, but there is still a power gap after the implementation. At present, the entire grid is in danger of collapsing, so it has adopted measures to restrict electricity to residents .
    However, when the electricity consumption of residents will be restored, the response is that the current time is unknown.
    This is just a microcosm of the nation’s “electricity shortage”.
    In southeastern China, countless enterprises in Guangdong Province ushered in unprecedented long-term power rationing. The start-up market of high-energy-consuming enterprises in some regions has changed from "six openings and one stop" to "six openings and six stoppages". Ground stoppage on the edge.
    The same situation has also appeared in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and even Yunnan. Under the iron ban on power rationing, both small and medium-sized enterprises and listed companies are treated equally.
    Regardless of whether industrial or domestic electricity is used, it is facing tough power cuts.
    Behind this is an electricity shortage that has lasted for nearly 10 months, the retaliatory rebound of international orders after the epidemic, the price increase brought about by the tightening of coal supply and imports, and the local government is afraid of being interviewed to make up for operations . Various factors are intertwined. Together, they form such a severe, yet slightly magical scene.
    At the same time, the pains of energy reform are surging, and more contradictions are still being revealed.
    Manufacturing, electricity, and local governments have all reached the juncture of change.

    Manufacturing in a hurricane under a blackout

    Electricity shortage has always been not far from us.
    I still remember that round of power cuts at the end of last year was just the beginning of the current round of power shortages.
    On December 14, 2020, the Hunan Power Grid has a maximum load of 31.5 million kilowatts and a daily power of 613.2 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 35.43% and 36.22% respectively over the same period of the previous year. Due to the limited power generation capacity, the power supply situation is tight.
    At that time, the power limit in Hunan was tough.
    In the snowy winter, the Changsha Development and Reform Commission issued an orderly electricity use initiative, requiring all air conditioners in the city to be controlled below 20°C and not to use high-energy appliances such as electric stoves and electric ovens. If high-energy-consuming electrical appliances are used during the orderly power consumption period (10:30-12:00, 16:30-20:30), which causes overload tripping and power failure, the electric power department will conduct intelligent investigations based on the meter data and treat the overload Electricity households implement restrictions on power supply.
    Do you think this is just some plain official document statement? The operation that fell into reality is that as a large electricity user, office buildings bear the brunt-the elevator is only half open, the air conditioners are all turned off, and the supply of hot water is stopped. In order to get the card in time, the migrant workers in Hunan can only climb 20 or 30 floors by stairs.
    At the same time, regardless of residents or office buildings, all the air conditioners that continuously produce heating are required to be turned off.
    Hunan shut down air-conditioning, Zhejiang shut down factories, Jiangxi and Shaanxi also started to curtail power due to power shortages.
    The power failure is only a momentary impermanence, and the power shortage has spread intermittently from December last year to the present.
    Due to climatic reasons and the peak period of industrial production, the previous peak season for electricity consumption started in June. In addition to climate factors, there are also industries that are gradually entering the peak of production. However, this year's peak season has come particularly fast. In May, Guangdong is expected to have a maximum power load demand of 133 million kilowatts. There is a power gap of 8 million to 11 million kilowatts. The gap has expanded to 6.02% to 8.3% compared to March expectations.
    According to experience, when the weather turns cooler in September, the grid load will drop, and the power supply shortage in the south will be alleviated.
    But not this time.
    According to the work dynamics of the official website of the Guangdong Energy Bureau, the demand for electricity in Guangdong Province has continued to rise since early September. As of September 23, the maximum load demand in Guangdong has reached 141 million kilowatts, an increase of 11% over the highest load last year. Has reached a record high .
    Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other places have encountered the same situation as Guangdong. The surge in electricity demand is closely related to industrial electricity.
    In the second half of 2020, China took the lead to resume production from the epidemic, international orders are flooding in, and vigorous growth continues to this day. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic industrial value added above designated size has been significantly higher than that of the same period in history, and the monthly growth rate in the second quarter has remained above 8%. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic imports and exports has remained above 20%, reaching the highest level in the past 20 years.

    Guangdong Free Trade Port Terminal
    In order to fulfill these orders, companies have to increase production capacity. Taking Guangdong as an example, before the official start of power rationing, Guangdong's electricity consumption from January to April increased by 32.2% and 40.2% year-on-year respectively. Demand has risen sharply, but supply has not kept up.
    Affected by the dry season, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the “West-to-East Power Transmission”, which accounted for 1/3 of Guangdong’s total electricity consumption, has insufficient power transmission capacity this year. The cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour continues to rise due to the impact of coal price increases.

    " West-East Power Transmission" Major Project: Baihetan Hydropower Station
    In August of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Barometer of Completion of Energy Consumption Dual Control Targets in Various Regions in the First Half of 2021". Among them, nine provinces including Guangdong, Fujian and Qinghai were criticized for not falling but increasing their energy intensity in the first half of the year. The level is raised to one level. In this document, more than 40% of cities nationwide have failed to meet the energy consumption emission standards.
    High power demand and power shortage, under the pressure of dual control, gave birth to the largest scale in history, and possibly the longest duration and the widest range of power cuts. International orders have turned from a dream to a nightmare.
    Small and medium-sized enterprises are fined when they start work; if they do not start work, workers are lost and orders cannot be completed on schedule. Large-scale listed companies have ceased production one after another, and their stock prices have fallen.
    The impact is not limited to the moment. In fact, the manufacturing industry has reached the cusp of constant change.
    Take the chemical industry as an example, power and production restrictions have led to a decline in production capacity, not only leading to delays in delivery, loss of customers and lower profits, but also a rise in the price of chemical raw materials, which directly affects downstream industries, such as printing and dyeing companies.
    On September 17, the Changshu Printing and Dyeing Chamber of Commerce in Jiangsu Province issued the "Dyeing and Printing Fee Adjustment Notice", requiring member companies to uniformly increase the printing and dyeing fee by no less than 1,000 yuan/ton from October 1. On September 15th, the Sweater Dyeing and Finishing Chamber of Commerce in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province issued the "Letter on Adjusting the Dyeing and Processing Fees of Hank Yarn", requesting that the printing and dyeing processing fees be increased by 500 yuan/ton.
    According to industry insiders, the prices of various chemicals such as dyes, auxiliaries and major chemicals have increased in turn. Dyeing and printing companies are facing huge operating pressures, superimposed on their own production constraints, and rising costs for dyeing and printing companies have become a trend.
    In addition, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are China's main polyester production areas, and the production capacity of polyester in the two provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu accounts for about 77% of the country's total polyester production capacity. However, the goal of achieving dual energy consumption control in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has not reached the standard. The dual control policy is in the second level of early warning. In the near future, strict power and production restrictions have been introduced. The high concentration of the polyester industry means that the production capacity of this place is affected. Restrictions, the impact will spread to the entire industry chain and the whole country.

    Textile factory
    And when the upstream fabric and dyeing and printing prices rise, the downstream garment industry will also be involved.
    One link after another, aggressive policies are like a butterfly flapping its wings, causing hurricanes in various industries.

    The dangerous bureau of the electric power enterprise sends out one kilowatt-hour of electricity, and loses a dime

    The rise and fall of coal prices has always been highly cyclical. As seasonal electricity demand changes, prices have risen or fallen.
    China's energy structure is "more coal, less oil and gas shortage". Coal is widely used in the country , that is, there are many "next houses", and the demand is also great. At present, the annual domestic coal mining accounts for 50% of the world's total. . In 2012, after a decade of mining during the golden age of the industry, the coal market was severely oversupply, causing coal transaction prices to drop sharply, and coal prices have never been able to reach the 1,000 yuan mark.
    But now, everything has changed.
    In these two months, the spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has exceeded 1,500 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 900 yuan per ton compared with the same period last year, an increase of 180%, and an increase of more than 120% compared with last year's low. The price of coking coal, which is a nobleman among coals, once exceeded 3,500 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 200%.
    The price of coal has repeatedly surpassed one thousand, and this super cycle seems to be invisible.
    You know, electricity is the lifeblood of industry, and coal is the lifeblood of electricity.

    Coal-fired power generation is still the most important power generation method in my country
    Although in recent years, new energy generation such as wind power and photovoltaic power has been promoted in China, the proportion of coal-fired power generation has declined. But coal-fired thermal power generation has always accounted for more than half of the total power generation, almost twice the global average and three times that of the United States.
    So the key is the price of coal.
    Yang Fuqiang, a distinguished researcher at the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, pointed out that since the beginning of this year, international thermal coal prices have risen due to four major factors including the rebound in global industrial demand, the limited global coal supply capacity, the linkage effect with other energy prices, and inflation.
    Last year, Australia's diplomatic relations with China deteriorated. China suspended coal imports from Australia and increased coal imports from Indonesia and Russia, which also raised international coal prices to a certain extent.
    In China, in addition to being affected by the overall supply of the power industry chain, last year, Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal producing area, investigated coal corruption for 20 years, resulting in a nearly 10% reduction in coal production in Inner Mongolia in 2020.

    This round of anti-corruption efforts is extremely strong
    In September 2020, at the 75th United Nations General Assembly, China announced an important decision: “Strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.”
    This commitment almost confirms the direction of the energy transition in the next five years or even decades. 2021 is the starting year of this strategy, and the "dual energy consumption control" policies of various provinces have also been introduced, and each province, autonomous region and municipality has a carbon emission quota. If the carbon emission limit of each region reaches the warning line, then the region where it is located must start to limit carbon emissions.
    This, to a certain extent, restricts the supply of thermal power generation through the supply of coal.
    Several factors are superimposed, and the coal "madness" is gradually growing.
    The rise in raw materials has also led to higher cost of thermal power. According to the China Times report, the national average fuel cost in 2020 will reach 0.3456 yuan/kWh, and the current benchmark electricity price is around 0.35-0.36 yuan/kWh. Electricity has changed from a high-profit industry in the past to an almost gratuitous charity.
    In power plants in some areas, there is even a situation of "generating one kilowatt-hour and losing a dime". The capital chain of some small and medium-sized power plants is directly dragged down by the high coal price.
    The price of upstream raw materials has risen, and downstream demand has surged, and the living space of the electric power companies caught in the middle has been repeatedly squeezed, which has already caused endless complaints.
    In August, 11 coal-fired power generation companies including Datang Power International, Beijing Guodian Power, Jingneng Power, and Huaneng Group North China Branch jointly filed a letter to the Beijing Municipal Management Committee, requesting re-signing of direct electricity transactions in the Beijing area October-December 2021 The annual long-term association contract.

    However, there has been no response to this matter-unlike Western countries where prices are determined by the market, my country's electricity prices implement a long-term price agreement system.
    The top level continuously reduces the proportion of thermal power in the energy structure, and the industry chain is blocked at both ends. The ancient energy industry of coal is facing unprecedented challenges.
    Ma Jun, director of the Green Finance Committee of the Chinese Finance Society, said that in the context of carbon neutrality, the default rate of loans to coal power companies in China may rise to more than 20% within 10 years. The loan default rate of other high-carbon industries may also rise sharply. The financial risks brought about by the climate transition may become the source of systemic financial risks.
    In other words, coal companies and traditional power companies will collapse while struggling.

    Why can't the sports-type energy-reducing photovoltaic and wind power top?

    However, even if the coal price rises caused great pressure on power companies, the grid supply continues. Even though the demand for electricity is extremely large, the high-energy-consuming industries have already started to stop production. Why is there still no electricity for residents, even for traffic lights?
    Because these places are making up their homework.
    This wave of movement-style power cuts to limit power consumption and reduce energy consumption comes from the document issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in mid-August. In the document, the completion of the "dual energy consumption control" target in each region in the first half of 2021 was evaluated as a "barometer" . The most important thing is that 9 provinces are classified as first-level early warning areas. In other places, because energy consumption did not drop but increased, they were interviewed by superiors.
    Being interviewed is bigger than anything else.
    Some regions hurriedly began "commanded" shutdowns, requiring high-energy-consuming industries to stop production and even limit electricity.
    According to the comment of "Xia Ke Island" under the People's Daily:
    Some people blamed the “dual energy consumption control” for the suspension of production and electricity restriction, and believed that the sudden increase in the policy led to local assault-style shutdowns of production and electricity restrictions. The energy consumption intensity restraint system has been implemented for more than 10 years, the "dual energy consumption control" has been implemented for nearly 6 years, and the "barometer" published on a quarterly basis has also been implemented for eight or nine years. The goal of "dual energy consumption control" has always been stable and clear, and there is no temporary overweight.
    In addition to the sharp increase in orders for resumption of work and production in various places, it has brought high demand for electricity. In some areas, under the anticipation of carbon peak in 2030, the nearly 10 years before the “carbon peak” is interpreted as a window of time for “climbing the peak”, and they are rushing to implement the “two highs” projects with high energy consumption and high emissions. Violating regulations gave the "two highs" project the green light, and wanted to control the "site" of the increase in energy consumption early. Unapproved first-to-build projects have repeatedly appeared in some places.

    In order to complete the assessment of energy consumption requirements, some local governments can only cut off the power across the board, reducing the overall energy consumption value throughout the year. Next, let alone stop the traffic lights, it will happen constantly if the elevators are stopped in each building.
    Then what? Can you stop like this for five years?
    A very cruel problem lies ahead: China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP is 1.5 times the world average, and the economic growth model has always been considered extensive and inefficient.

    The "Thirteenth Five-Year" Comprehensive Work Plan for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction has proposed a goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 15% in 2020 compared to 2015, but in the end it was only reduced by 13.2%, failing to reach the target.
    Under the new "14th Five-Year Plan", the GDP energy consumption ratio is required to be reduced by 13.5% in 2025 compared to 2020. This means that China needs to increase energy consumption at an average annual rate of about 2% to support about 5% of energy consumption. GDP growth rate. Therefore, China will have more institutional requirements in terms of energy consumption. Places have to restrain themselves according to indicators at any time.
    Why? Photovoltaic and wind power have also been developed for ten years, are they really not able to top it? In fact, clean energy, mainly wind power and photovoltaics, will enjoy more policy dividends in the reform of the energy supply side.
    Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Plan for Improving the Dual Control System of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Quantity", which proposed that, based on the consumption and trading of renewable energy in various provinces, excess power consumption should not be included in the five-year plan. The total assessment. At the same time, companies that use clean energy will also be given a certain degree of policy flexibility in terms of their emissions.
    In other words, clean energy has certain immunity in the dual control.
    The regulation at the policy level is to promote the reform of the energy structure, which is essentially to create more room for the development of clean energy. However, the proportion of coal-fired power generation in my country and the technological boundaries of clean energy determine that it cannot survive the energy transition as smoothly as other countries.
    On the one hand, wind power and photovoltaics have certain disadvantages compared to thermal power. For example, grid-connected transmission and use have always been a major problem for wind power and photovoltaics.
    Wind power and photovoltaic power generation are unstable and power generation equipment is located in remote areas. In order to achieve smooth grid connection of wind power and photovoltaics, it is necessary to construct ultra-high lines and carry out large-scale transformation of the existing power grid. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, although the manufacturing costs of domestic photovoltaic and wind power have fallen sharply, there is a serious lag in power grid transformation and UHV line construction.
    For example, the Qishao UHV in Hunan, as the country’s first large-scale UHV DC transmission channel for large-scale transmission of new energy power, has been less than expected in actual power transmission capacity-the current annual transmission capacity of this line is only 4.5 million kilowatts. The design capacity is a little more than half of 8 million.
    On the other hand, in 2018, after the decline of photovoltaic subsidies, market confidence was hit hard, and some photovoltaic companies had to cut production. This year, before the official decline of wind power subsidies, there was a wave of construction, but the future situation is even more uncertain.
    Everything is just beginning.
    Feng Yongsheng, an associate researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that due to the random, volatile and intermittent characteristics of renewable energy power generation, under the background of the “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” goals, with a high proportion of new energy access As the power system and the degree of electrification on the demand side increase, the peak-to-valley difference in power load is bound to increase year by year, and the phenomenon of "peak load" will become more pronounced.



    • #3

      Xinhua News Agency Investigation: Why are many places "cutting off power cuts"? Can the subsequent power supply be guaranteed?

      2021-09-29 07:34:07

      Xinhua News Agency reported on September 28 in Beijing that power rationing and production suspension are hot words of the moment. In the context of tight power supply, many places across the country have issued notices of power rationing, and most areas have focused on enterprises, and some enterprises have staggered production or stopped production.

      What is the power supply situation in these areas? Why the power cut? Can the subsequent power supply be guaranteed? In response to these issues, reporters from "Xinhua Viewpoint" conducted an investigation.

      Power curtailment companies in many places stop production

      Recently, Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have successively issued notices on orderly use or curtailment of electricity.

      As of the 28th, more than 20 listed companies have issued announcements related to power curtailment and production suspension, including Mona Lisa, Diou Home Furnishing, Chenhua, Zhongnong United, Limin, etc.

      Taoli Bread announced that nine wholly-owned subsidiaries located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Tianjin, and Heilongjiang have received local electricity curtailment notices. Among them, Jiangsu Taoli will suspend production from September 25 to 30; the remaining 8 companies have cooperated with the power curtailment measures in accordance with the relevant notices of the local orderly use of electricity.

      In some serious areas, the phenomenon of "opening two and stopping five" or even "opening one and stopping six" has appeared in some serious areas.

      "The company has only produced one day in the last week. The Mid-Autumn Festival holiday on September 21, and power cuts on September 22, 23, 24, 26, and 27 have halted production, which has made the company's inadequate production capacity worse." Dongguan, Guangdong Said Wang Yong, general manager of Jishuo Industrial Co., Ltd.

      "Since May and June this year, power rationing has always existed. It’s just that the restrictions have been more severe recently. Not only in Guangdong, but the company’s projects in Hunan, Jiangxi, Heilongjiang and other places have also been shut down due to power rationing. In some places, equipment can only be used a day. Turn on for 9 hours." Peng Shufen, general manager of Guangdong Taiquan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters.

      "Our park received a notice on September 15 that non-essential laboratories will not be air-conditioned and the load will be reduced to half of the previous level. Now two floors of office buildings share a hot water pot." said a person in charge of Jiangsu Life Science and Technology Innovation Park.

      Power outages have also occurred in some cities in the three northeastern provinces, affecting the lives of the people.

      “The sudden power outage at 5 pm on September 23 caused many people to fail to prepare.” A citizen in Hunchun, Jilin told reporters that the power outage was at the peak of get off work hours. After the traffic lights were out of power, the traffic order fell into chaos, and elevators were out of service. Cooking and washing are affected. There are roads in some areas of Shenyang City that are congested due to lack of electricity from signal lights.

      Multiple factors such as "recovery" and "coal shortage" are superimposed

      Industry insiders pointed out that there are two main reasons for power rationing in many places. The first is the strong economic recovery in coastal provinces and cities after the epidemic, and the rapid growth of electricity demand; the second is that coal prices have soared, coal supply is tight, thermal power companies are losing money, and power generation output is insufficient.

      The person in charge of the Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau said that the general high temperature in Guangdong Province this summer. Industrial production and high temperature weather have brought strong demand for electricity, and superimposed factors such as the lack of water and electricity supply in some areas as expected, resulting in a shortage of electricity supply.

      "The economic recovery is strong, driving the rapid growth of electricity demand. In January and March, Guangdong Province's electricity load exceeded 100 million kilowatts, and the electricity consumption growth rate reached more than 30%." "In the peak order period, the demand for electricity in the secondary and tertiary industries continues to be strong. At present, the maximum load demand of Guangdong Province has reached a record high of 135.13 million kilowatts.

      Yang Fuqiang, a distinguished researcher at the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, believes that the substantial increase in electricity consumption reflects the accelerated recovery of domestic economic and social operations after the epidemic. “Affected by the epidemic in some countries, foreign supply has been blocked, and the global market’s demand for Chinese-made products has increased significantly, which has stimulated power consumption in some coastal cities.”

      Monitoring data from the State Grid shows that in the first half of 2021, the monthly electricity consumption in the operation area of ​​the State Grid increased rapidly year-on-year, and the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 15.83% over the same period in 2020 and also increased over the same period in 2019. 14.97%. From the perspective of electricity consumption in the three major industries, the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries accounted for 1.26%, 78.66%, and 20.08% respectively in the first half of the year, an increase of 20.13%, 16.39%, and 25.21% respectively over the same period in 2020, which is similar to the same period in 2019. The specific growth rate exceeded 14 percentage points.

      At the same time, the power generation capacity of some provinces has declined. The prices of natural gas and coal are soaring, the supply of resources is tight, and the on-grid power prices remain unchanged. Thermal power companies are losing money on a large scale, are not motivated to generate electricity, and the number of shutdowns for maintenance has increased significantly.

      A person in charge of a power generation company in Guangdong told reporters that the thermal power plant will lose 70 to 80 cents per kilowatt- hour of electricity .

      "Coal shortage" has also appeared in the three northeastern provinces. On September 26, Liaoning Province held a power security work conference. The meeting pointed out that since July, due to a sharp drop in power generation capacity, there has been a shortage of power in Liaoning Province. From September 23 to 25, the power supply gap further increased to a severe level. In order to prevent the collapse of the entire power grid, the Northeast Power Grid dispatching department directly issued instructions to implement "grid accidents and power rationing" in accordance with relevant plans, and the scope of power consumption was expanded to residents and enterprises that did not implement orderly power use measures.

      Thermal power occupies an important position in the energy structure, accounting for about 70% of electricity generation. Therefore, the "lack" or "not lacking" of electricity has a lot to do with the supply of coal. Recently, the prices of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke, the "three brothers" of coal, hit a record high. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price of high calorific value thermal coal above 5500 kcal on September 26 was about 1535 yuan/ton.

      In addition, in the first half of this year, the energy consumption intensity of some regions rose instead of falling, reflecting the rapid expansion of energy-intensive industries in related regions, and the mismatch between economic growth and energy consumption growth, which also affected the orderly power consumption measures in individual regions.

      Take multiple measures to ensure supply

      The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice to various localities and related enterprises, requesting to promote direct insurance and full coverage of medium and long-term coal contracts for power generation and heating companies, to ensure the need for coal for power generation and heating, and to keep the bottom line of coal for people's livelihood.

      On the 25th, a signing ceremony for the full coverage and concentration of coal for power generation and heating in Northeast China was held in Beijing. The signed mid- and long-term coal contract involves major domestic coal production companies, guaranteed coal mines, and key power generation and heating companies in Northeast China. The proportion of medium and long-term contracts of thermal enterprises in the amount of coal used this winter will be increased to 100%, so as to ensure the use of coal for people's livelihood in the heating season in the northeast and the people's demand for warmth through the winter.

      In accordance with the deployment of the increase in production and supply during the heating season, the relevant business departments of the National Energy Administration have recently gone to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, East Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hunan and other places to supervise the work of ensuring the supply of coal and natural gas. Guide localities and enterprises to implement various measures to ensure energy supply, strive to increase energy supply, and go all out to ensure the energy demand for people's livelihood in key areas this winter and next spring.

      September 23 to 25, deputy director of the National Energy Board any Jingdong led to go to Ningxia, Shaanxi, in-depth production line construction, coal, natural gas and increase security for on-site research supervision, local and enterprise requirements for liability insurance compaction, further Exploit the potential for increasing production, give prominence to ensuring the use of coal for power generation, heating and other people’s livelihoods, and promote the stable operation of the economy and society.

      The relevant person in charge of the State Grid told the reporter that comprehensive measures and multiple measures will be taken to fight the battle of power supply; strengthen the unified dispatch of the entire network, rationally arrange the operation mode, serve the power generation enterprises, and achieve the merger; coordinate the deployment of resources, Give full play to the advantages of the large power grid platform, tap the potential of cross-regional and cross-provincial channels for power transmission; strengthen the monitoring of power consumption, and ensure the power consumption of residents; strictly implement the demand response and orderly power use plans formulated by the government, and timely communicate and coordinate work , Maintain the order and stability of power supply and use; strengthen the emergency duty of grid operation to ensure safe and reliable power use.

      Guangdong Province is taking full measures to actively respond to the shortage of power supply. The Energy Bureau of Guangdong Province urges power plants to do a good job in reserve of fuel and auxiliary materials for power generation, to ensure stable and reliable operation of units during peak hours, to coordinate the increase in supply of Western Power, and to send power to Guangdong according to its maximum capacity.

      Liaoning Province requires that the orderly use of electricity is implemented in place, and the maximum possible avoidance of power cuts. All local power operation authorities have avoided the need for power cuts that involve safety production, people's livelihood, and important users. Grid companies should extend the time for orderly electricity load gap forecasting and the release time of early warning levels, expand the scope of notification, and facilitate users to arrange electricity consumption plans in advance.

      Jilin Province requires every effort to guarantee basic electricity demand for people's livelihood, and to the greatest possible avoidance of power cuts. Grid companies must make scientific and precise dispatch, and it is true that power cuts are necessary, and residents must be informed in advance to make preparations and guide enterprises to avoid peak and off-peak electricity consumption. Power generation companies must do everything possible to increase supply, reduce downtime for maintenance, ensure power generation capacity during peak hours, and at the same time coordinate the peak output of wind and new energy.

      At present, some areas in Zhejiang have suspended power curtailment measures, and will further refine their policies, and give priority to protecting people's livelihood and industrial chain related enterprises based on the evaluation system of energy efficiency ratio.

      According to industry insiders, in order to curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming and high-emission projects, some local governments have organized measures such as energy budget management, orderly use of electricity and peak-shift production for high-energy-consuming enterprises. This is a response to the original neglect of energy conservation and emission reduction Work correction measures, but we must pay attention to methods and methods to avoid "one size fits all" "simplification" and other practices. In particular, while adopting an orderly use of electricity, it is necessary to further strengthen refined management to ensure that people's livelihood use is not affected.



      • #4

        So, can coal prices be stabilized by increasing coal production capacity? According to the laws of the market, the answer is no. The price of coal remains high. In addition to the driving force of power generation demand and market speculation, the fundamental reason is that the shortage of coal leads to "no rice to cook." From an internal point of view, its own production capacity is limited. In the past few years, domestic coal supply-side reforms have continuously suppressed thermal coal and coking coal production capacity. In particular, based on the important development goal of reducing carbon emissions, many high-polluting and low-efficiency coal companies have been shut down and transferred. Externally, coal imports are seriously inadequate. From January to June this year, my country’s coal imports were 13.9561 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% and a significant decrease of 34 million tons. In the same period last year, coal imports from Australia accounted for more than 30%. Due to the tension between China and Australia and there is no sign of easing, it has now returned to zero. . Although Russia, Mongolia, Canada, and the United States have relatively increased coking coal, their volume is small and the gully is difficult to smooth. In general, the tight supply situation is difficult to effectively resolve.



        • #5
          bump this


          • #6
            Russia doubles electricity exports to China to help ease power crunch

            September 29, 2021. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
            01 Oct 2021 10:24PM



            • #7

              10h ago
              Even the Dirtiest Coal Is Surging Due to China’s Power Crunch
              Serene Cheong and Alfred Cang, Bloomberg News

              (Bloomberg) -- China is paying the most on record for the dirtiest type of coal, showing how the power crisis is turbo-charging Asian energy markets.

              The price of a variety of lignite coal from Indonesia surged to $110 to $120 a ton this week due to rising demand from China and falling production from mines in Kalimantan, said traders who buy and sell the grade. That’s up from last year when some shipments sold for as little as $20 to $25 per ton.

              The increase in demand for what’s regarded as one of the world’s most pollutive and energy-inefficient fuels is raising concerns about a jump in carbon emissions from China this winter. The grade, known as 4200-GAR, is usually mixed with more energy-efficient coal.

              Chinese buyers were out in full force earlier this week to bid for shipments of the Indonesian coal grade, the traders said. Beijing’s order for state-owned companies to secure energy supplies for the winter at all costs is likely to see buying activity intensify...


              • #8

                Why China has to ration electricity and how that could affect everyone
                Updated October 1, 20217:31 AM ET
                Heard on Morning Edition
                Emily Feng at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., March 19, 2019.

                BEIJING — Here is a riddle: China has more than enough power plants to meet electricity demand. So why are local governments having to ration power across the country?

                The search for an answer begins with the pandemic.

                "Coal consumption shot up like crazy in the first half of the year because of a very energy-intensive, industry-driven recovery from the COVID-19 lockdowns," says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki.

                In other words, as China's export machine roared back to life, electricity-guzzling factories churned out fast fashion and home appliances for customers in the United States and elsewhere. Regulators also loosened controls on coal-intensive sectors like steelmaking as a way to recover from China's pandemic-induced economic slowdown.

                Now thermal coal has tripled in price on some commodities exchanges. About 90% of coal used in China is domestically mined, but mining volumes from some of China's northern provinces have dropped by as much as 17.7%, according to respected Chinese financial magazine Caijing.

                Normally, those higher coal prices would have been passed on to energy consumers. But electricity utility rates are capped. This mismatch has pushed power plants to the brink of financial collapse because higher coal prices have forced them to operate at a loss. In September, 11 Beijing-based power generation companies penned an open letter petitioning a central policy decision-making body, the National Development and Reform Commission, to raise electricity rates.
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                "When coal prices are very high, what happens is that it's not profitable for a lot of coal plants to generate electricity," Myllyvirta says.

                The result: Coal-fired power plants have simply shut down...