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China - MoA official: Supply problems will cause pig price to exceed historical high in fourth quarter 2019 - April 23, 2019

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  • China - MoA official: Supply problems will cause pig price to exceed historical high in fourth quarter 2019 - April 23, 2019

    Ministry of Agriculture: Pig prices will break through 16 years of historical highs

    2019-04-23 14:23:02Source: Securities Times

      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: The price of live pigs in the fourth quarter will break through the historical high point of 2016.

      Wang Junxun, deputy director of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said on April 23 that the pig price has entered the rising cycle ahead of schedule, predicting that pork production will decline throughout the year. The supply of pigs will be tighter in the later period, and the price of live pigs in the fourth quarter will exceed the historical high point of 2016.

      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: Timber supply is expected to tighten in the second half of the year, prices may rise significantly

      Wei Baigang, director of the Department of Development and Planning of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that due to the impact of African swine fever, the scale of pig farms is now more prudent, and some small-scale households are speeding up the launch. The number of live pigs and able-bred sows continues to decrease, falling for three consecutive months. More than 10%, according to the six-month pig production cycle, it is expected that pork supply may tighten in the second half of the year, and prices may rise significantly. Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has also urged all localities to strengthen pig production and market monitoring and early warning, and strengthen a series of policy measures to ensure the smooth operation of pig production.

    Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: Africa's swine fever epidemic situation slows down

      Wei Baigang, director of the Development and Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at a news conference today that the African swine fever epidemic has slowed down, and 23 provinces have lifted the epidemic blockade, pig production and The order of transportation is speeding up recovery. In the first quarter, pigs slaughtered 188 million heads, down 5.1% year-on-year; pork production was 14.63 million tons, down 5.2% year-on-year. The dairy industry revitalization action was implemented in depth. The milk production in the first quarter was 6.25 million tons, an increase of 2% year-on-year. The total output of aquatic products was 12.63 million tons, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year.

      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: In the first quarter, it is estimated that the operating income of agricultural products processing enterprises above

      designated size will be 3.4 trillion yuan. Wei Baigang, director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced on April 23, at present, 62 national-level modern agricultural industrial parks have been approved and recognized. It has created more than 1,000 provincial and a large number of municipal and county-level industrial parks. Two days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national modern agricultural industrial park promotion conference in Xinhui District, Jiangmen District, Guangdong Province, and promoted this work as an important starting point and breakthrough point for rural revitalization. In the first quarter, the agricultural product processing industry developed steadily. It is estimated that the operating income of agricultural products processing enterprises above designated size will be 3.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.

      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: The overall agricultural and rural economy is stable this year

      Wei Baigang, Director of the Development and Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said at the press conference held by the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on the 23rd that the agricultural and rural economy has been generally stable and has started well this year. According to him, the added value of the primary industry in the first quarter of this year reached 876.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7%; the per capita disposable income of rural residents reached 4,600 yuan, an actual increase of 6.9%, continuing the "double growth" momentum.

      Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Areas: Continue to promote investment in agricultural infrastructure

      Zhao Changbao, deputy director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Policy and Reform, said at the press conference today that the next step is to continue to increase investment in agricultural infrastructure and strengthen high standards. Farmland construction, adjustment and optimization of agricultural structure, promote the organic connection between small farmers and modern agricultural development, develop moderate scale operations, and promote the continuous growth of agricultural production and operation income.

      Wen's shares: the decline in pig prices dragged down the 18-year performance cycle and gradually improved the future performance elasticity.

      Wen's shares 300498

      Research institutions: Fortune Securities analyst: Chen Bo wrote date: 2019-02-26 The

      fall in pig prices dragged down the company's overall profit. 1) Profit decline in pig business: The average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities nationwide from January to December 2018 was 12.70 yuan/kg, down 15.55% year-on-year. The decline in pig prices led to a sharp decline in the profitability of the company's farming business. During the reporting period, the company produced 22.297 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 17.10%, and the average selling price was 12.82 yuan/kg, down 14.42% year-on-year. Among them, sales were 142,400 heads, income was 247 million yuan, and the average selling price was 17.57 yuan/kg. In the fourth quarter alone, the company produced 6.115 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%. Affected by the African swine fever epidemic in August, the increase in epidemic prevention costs led to a slight increase in the total cost of the company's commercial pigs. It is estimated that the company's total cost of raising pigs in 2018 is 12.3 yuan/kg. It is estimated that the company's commercial pigs will earn 60-65 yuan in 2018. The pig breeding sector is expected to contribute a profit of 1.4 billion yuan; 2) the profitability of the yellow chicken business is improved: in the second half of 2018, as the supply and demand of broiler improved, the market consumption gradually adjusted, the broiler market entered a recovery growth, and the profitability of the chicken industry increased. . In 2018, the company's Huang Yu chicken is expected to sell 7.9-800 million feathers, compared with 780 million feathers in 2017. According to the full cost of 5.5 yuan / kg, it is estimated that the profit of Huang Yu chicken is 3.0 yuan, and the contribution of Huang Yu chicken plate The profit is 2.4 billion yuan. At the same time, during the reporting period, the company completed the registration of the first restricted stock, and amortized the restricted stock incentive fee of 312 million yuan in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises, resulting in a decrease in net profit.

      Stable growth in the number of pigs, benefiting from the new round of pig cycle: According to the Chinese government network data, the number of sows that can be used in January 2019 was 28.82 million, down 1.06 million from December 18, down 15.6% year-on-year; The inventory was 293.38 million, down 5.7% from the previous month and down 13.1% year-on-year. The process of accelerating the production of pigs in Africa has continued. According to the pig breeding cycle, the concentration of sows in the industry starting in the second half of 2018 is expected to appear in March-March 2019, and a new round of pig cycles is expected to arrive in the second quarter of 2019. As a model of the “company + farmer (or family farm)” farming model, the company has strong competitiveness in raw material procurement, breeding technology, information technology, disease prevention and epidemic prevention. It is estimated that the company’s production capacity of pigs from 2019 to 2020 is 2400, 29 million heads, it is expected to fully benefit from the increase in pig prices in the future.

      Earnings forecast and investment rating. The company's pig production has grown steadily, and the reversal of the pig cycle is expected to boost the profitability of the pig sector. At the same time, the company's Huang Yu chicken business has a stable profit. As the company continues to increase its downstream slaughtering and processing business, it is expected that the poultry business will contribute stable profits. We estimate that the company's revenue for 2018/2019/2020 is 573.08/641.57/796.06 billion yuan, net profit is 39.62/68.78/12.279 billion yuan, EPS is 0.75/1.29/2.29 yuan, and the current stock price is 44.38 for PE. /25.57/14.44 times. Referring to the company's historical valuation and taking into account the performance elasticity brought about by the pig cycle reversal, the company was given 30-33 times PE in 2019, and the reasonable price range was 38.7-42.6 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

      Risk warning: pig prices, chicken prices fell sharply, capacity expansion was less than expected, and the epidemic affected.

      Makino shares: optimistic about the company's live pig price and price

      rise. Makino shares 002714

      Research Institute: Shen Wan Hongyuan analyst: Zhao Jinhou written date: 2019-03-05

      Event: On February 27, the company announced the 2018 performance report: the annual operating income was 13.388 billion yuan, an increase of 33.32%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 78%, and the realized earnings per share was 0.17 yuan. . Among them, Q4 achieved operating income of 4.207 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 25.35% year-on-year; realized net profit of 170 million yuan, down 30.74% year-on-year, in line with our previous fourth-quarter earnings forecast.

      In 2018, the number of live pigs was 11.1 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 52.14%, slightly lower than the market expectation at the beginning of the year (12 million to 14 million heads). In 2018, the company slaughtered 1,101,100 pigs, an increase of 52.14%. Among them, the number of pigs in the market was 10.1091 million, and the number of pigs in the stalls was 863,500. The number of pigs in the Q4 single-selling pigs was 336,600, a year-on-year increase of 68.72%, a year-on-year increase of 15.99%. Among them, there were 3,260,900 commercial pigs and 98,800 piglets. In general, the company's live pig production in 2018 showed a quarter-to-quarter growth trend, and the Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 pig production was 221.50/252.90/290.30/336.60 million.

      However, the company's annual average sales price was 11.61 yuan / kg, down 19.96% from 2017. The fluctuation of hog prices in 2018 is more due to industry fluctuations. There are two main reasons: First, the seasonal excess in the first half of the year due to oversupply. In the first half of 2018, due to the sharp increase in supply, the national hog price in the off-season of the superimposed consumption showed a “cliff-like” decline. The average selling price of the company’s pigs also fell from 13.65 yuan/kg in January-February to 9.99 yuan/kg in April, Q2 in 2018. The company suffered a loss in the first quarter since its listing. The second is the impact of the African swine fever epidemic. After the occurrence of African swine fever in August 2018, especially the first African swine fever epidemic occurred in Henan Province on August 14th, the province's main capacity distribution area was restricted by inter-provincial transportation in Henan Province (Henan is a pig-raising area), within the region. The price of live pigs has fallen sharply. The company's sales of live pigs in September were only 774,400, and the average hog sales price fell from 13.21 yuan/kg in August to 10.64 yuan in December. The decline in the sales price of live pigs is a major factor in the company's 2018 decline.

      We expect a large increase in hog prices in the second half of 2019. The main logic: the African swine fever epidemic has been and will continue to consume pig production capacity. In the short term, there has not been a large-scale replenishment. After the pork stocks are digested, the supply of the live pig market may be short-selling and drive the price of live pigs. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced that there have been 111 cases of African swine fever (as of 2011.2.28), and there is currently no effective vaccine. The earliest occurrence of the epidemic situation in the northeast region is also the area where pigs are transferred, and the production capacity is more. After the transfer of the blockade was gradually lifted, the large and medium-sized farmers under the Spring Festival had a large number of overweight pigs, and the price of live pigs in the Northeast region was the first to fall. Early new epidemic areas in the south also appeared in advance. The epidemic is still relatively large in the production capacity of sows (sows are more susceptible to African swine fever virus due to physiological structural characteristics), and many sows have to be “cleared” after the onset of sows. We expect that the price of live pigs will increase significantly in the second half of 2019 and can be maintained for about 12 months (assuming that the gilts are replenished from the gilts to the commodity-based hog supply).

      It is estimated that the number of live pigs in 2019/2020 will be 140.8 million, respectively. If the price of live pigs rises as expected, the company's performance will rebound sharply. The company's potential capacity still maintains a rapid increase. From the company's third quarter report on fixed assets and construction in progress, it still maintained a relatively high growth rate: the two were 19.68% and 82.78%, respectively. In particular, the construction in progress has reached 2.738 billion yuan, which has provided sufficient reserves for the continuous high growth of pig production in the next few years. In the short-term, the company's main capacity distribution area in Henan, Anhui, Africa, the pig swine epidemic situation is more serious, is expected to affect the company's 2019 pig production capacity. It is estimated that the company's production in 2019-2020 will be 140.8 million heads. The 2019-2020 year will be a good opportunity for the company to gradually release the production capacity and increase the sales price. The company's performance is expected to rebound sharply.

      Investment suggestion: The company's pig breeding costs have obvious advantages in the industry, and the company will maintain rapid growth in production capacity in the next few years. It is expected that the price of live pigs will rebound sharply in the second half of 2019 and will remain at least 2020, optimistic about the company's pig breeding business. We estimate that the company will produce 14 million 18 million pigs from 2019 to 2020, and the revenue from 2018 to 2020 will be 133.88/215.60/30.69 billion yuan respectively (assuming an average sales price of 14 yuan/kg and 15.50 yuan/kg in 2019-2020). Before the adjustment was 151.89/22.21/30.094 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company was 5.20/23.58/6.186 billion yuan (20.09/25.73/59.83 billion yuan in 18/19/20 years before the adjustment), EPS For the price of 0.25/1.13/2.97 yuan, the company's performance has a V-shaped reversal basis. The current stock price corresponds to 2018/2019/2020 PE is 184X/41X/15X, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

      Risk factors: The price of live pigs rose less than expected; the company's actual pig production was lower than expected.

      Tianbang Stock: Pig Breeding "Quantity and Price Increase" There is still room for valuation of the benchmark faucet

      Tianbang 002124

      Research Institute: Shen Wan Hongyuan Analyst: Zhao Jinhou Date of writing: 2019-03-06

      Tianbang Shares (hereinafter referred to as the company) The industrial chain layout, from 2019 to 2020, mainly focuses on the pig breeding business. The company's main business includes feed, biological products (Chengdu Tianbang), pig breeding (Han Shiwei), fresh food (picking taste) and engineering construction (Tianbang Kaiwu). The performance elasticity of the company from 2019 to 2020 mainly comes from the “quantity and price increase” of pig breeding.

      It is estimated that the number of live pigs will reach 217/350/5 million in 2018-2020, a year-on-year growth rate of 114%/61%/71%. We are from the balance sheet of fixed assets, construction in progress, productive biological assets and cash. The capital expenditure of the flow analyzes the company's pig breeding reserve capacity. 2019: The newly added capacity is still mainly from fixed-income investment projects. The newly added capacity of 18Q1, 18Q2, 18Q4 and 19Q1 is 1.275 million heads, 165,000 heads, 930,000 heads and 993,000 heads respectively. In 2019, the number of new columns can theoretically reach 2 million heads (16.5/2+93+99.3). Assuming that the new capacity utilization rate can be 65%-70%, then 350,000 heads can be achieved in 2019. 2020: In 2018, the company's fixed assets, construction in progress, and productive biological assets increased by more than the same industry (Muyuan, Wenshi, Zhengbang Technology). 2017-2018Q3 capital expenditure has exceeded 2.3 billion yuan (estimated new capacity of 4.6 million heads), even if the new capacity in 18Q4 and 2019 is not considered, the capacity in the reserve can achieve 6 million heads in 2020. Medium-term goal: According to the company's plan, the company's production capacity is expected to exceed 10 million heads, but the pace of capacity release depends on factors such as funds and African swine fever.

      Based on our estimates of company volume, price, cost and neutral assumptions, it is estimated that the company's pig profit will exceed 700 million yuan in 2019. The main factor driving the increase in the price of live pigs in 2019 is the impact of the African swine fever epidemic. In theory, the more serious the epidemic situation, the greater the deteriorating rate of industrial production, the greater the increase in pig prices, the greater the probability that listed companies will not exceed expectations, and the cost will rise. The greater the possibility. If the impact of African swine fever is ruled out, suppose: the output of 3.5 million in 2019; the average selling price of live pigs is 15 yuan/kg; the weight of the slaughter is 110 kg/head; the total cost of breeding is 13 yuan/kg, which can be used to calculate the company in 2019. The profit from the pig breeding business is about 773 million yuan. In the fixed cost calculation, the net profit of the company's pig breeding sector is far more flexible than the elasticity of the market. In addition, we have made flexible calculations under the premise of different costs. In 2019, the net profit of the company's pig breeding sector has a large probability of falling around 700-800 million yuan, and the current market value (excluding other businesses) corresponds to the PE of the pig breeding business. For 15-17X; under the optimistic assumption, the breeding profit is expected to reach 1.0-1.5 billion yuan, the current valuation is about 8-12X; under the pessimistic assumption, the breeding profit is only 3-4 billion yuan, at the current valuation It is 29-39X.

      Earnings Forecast and Valuation: It is estimated that the net profit of the company will be -5.52/8.98/20.64 billion in 18/19/20 (because the 18-year pig price is low, and the large non-recurring loss is confirmed, the 18-year profit is lowered. The forecast is that the original value is 585 million yuan; the new 19-20 year profit forecast), the EPS is -0.48/0.77/1.78 yuan/share, and the current stock price corresponds to the 19/20 year PE of 16/7X. The current share price of Tianbang, Wenshi, Muyuan and Zhengbang Technology is 16/21/45/23X for 19 years respectively; the average market capitalization is 3334/6161/7034/3944. Under the two valuation methods, the valuation of Tianbang is lower than the industry average. If the method of head-to-market value is adopted and the company's valuation is close to the leading companies, the company's share price still has doubled space and maintains a “buy” rating.

      Risk warning: the increase in pig price is not up to expectations; the company's impact on the African swine fever epidemic is significantly lower than expected or the cost increase is much higher than expected will affect the company's performance; there are insufficient supervision risks in corporate governance, etc.

      Zhengbang Technology: Continuous expansion of breeding scale, future cost improvement space

      Zhengbang Technology 002157

      Research Institute: Guotai Junan Analyst: Zhong Kaifeng Date of writing: 2018-08-09

      Investment suggestion: Maintain overweight. As the pig price is in the down cycle, the EPS forecast for 2018-19 is lowered to 0.23 and 0.32 yuan (previous forecast of 0.33, 0.46 yuan), and the target price is lowered to 4.7 yuan (previous forecast of 6.51 yuan) to maintain the increase.

      The first half of the 18-year results were in line with market expectations. The company released the results of the 2018 interim report. In the first half of the year, the operating income was 12.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.21%, and the net profit of the mother was -191 million yuan, down 169.48% year-on-year. The results were in line with market expectations.

      The scale of farming continues to expand, and there is room for improvement in future costs. From January to June, the company sold a total of 2.4818 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 157.38%; sales revenue of 3.093 billion yuan, an increase of 91.59%. In the second quarter, the industry generally entered a downturn. The company's aquaculture business suffered a loss in the first half of the year. The average price of fat pigs was about 11.5 yuan/kg in the first half of the year, the total cost was about 12.6 yuan/kg, and the weight of the pigs was 115 kilograms. The fat pigs and piglets were 225 and 23 respectively. According to the calculation of Wantou, it is estimated that the aquaculture sector will lose about 280 million yuan in the first half of the year, and the total profit of feed, animal protection and plant protection will be about 100 million. With the improvement of the management level brought about by modern farming, the production capacity of the superimposed company's pigs is gradually released. It is expected that the full cost of 18 years is expected to fall below 12.5 yuan / kg.

      The feed business has developed steadily and the product mix has continued to be optimized. The company increased the support of advantageous resources in key regions and key customers, implemented customer service customized technical support, and greatly improved customer stickiness; the company's product structure continued to optimize, and the proportion of pig sales increased from 48.34% in the same period in 17 years to 59.53%. The comprehensive gross profit margin of feed increased by 0.49pct over the same period, and the overall gross profit margin level was further improved.

      Risk warning: risk of fluctuations in livestock prices and risk of disease.

      Tangren God: significant improvement in feed and breeding double high growth and cost reduction

      Tang Ren Shen 002567

      Research Institute: Northeast Securities analyst: Li Qiang Date of writing: 2018-02-12 The

      sales of pigs exceeded expectations, and the feed maintained a high growth rate. The company's annual feed sales in 2017 was approximately 4.7 million tons, an increase of 23.68% year-on-year. Among them, the pig feed is 230-2.4 million tons, which is more than 50% year-on-year, which greatly exceeds the average growth rate of the industry; the bird feed is 2.2 million tons. The customers of Shandong Hemei are mainly medium-sized and large-scale farmers, which are less affected by bird flu and grow year on year. About 8%; aquatic products of 100,000-200,000 tons, an increase of 24%. Since 2016, the company has implemented the business policy of sales growth as its top priority. Feed sales have entered a high growth rate. At the same time, the increase in the proportion of pork materials will improve the average gross profit margin. The feed segment of Tangren has entered a good growth in both sales volume and profitability. trend.

      The acquisition of high-quality pig raising enterprises has steadily expanded production of pigs. In 2017, the number of live pigs was 560,000 heads, an increase of about 129% year-on-year. The number of pigs raised by Hunan Meishen pigs was more than 300,000 heads. The number of farms and animal husbandry in Longhua was more than 200,000 heads. Among them, Longhua Agriculture and Animal Husbandry increased piglets in the first half of 17 years. Sales, the annual sales of piglets accounted for 70%, strong profitability, the growth of pig slaughter will offset the impact of the fall in pig prices on the company's profits, and achieve positive growth in pig profits; the future depends on Hunan Meishen and Longhua Agriculture and Animal Husbandry An efficient breeding platform for the expansion of pig scale ensures the company's ability to maintain long-term profitability in the farming sector.

      The scale effect and the amoeba incentives help boost costs and increase efficiency. Since the end of 2015, Tangren has promoted the amoeba incentive mechanism. At the end of 2016, it has begun to bear fruit. It has fully authorized the sales unit leadership, the sales staff has increased their initiative, and the advanced units and personal income and performance growth have increased simultaneously, which has stimulated various sales. The unit's work passion and performance improvement. At present, the average cost of feed for the headquarters is about 220 yuan / ton, which is 69 yuan / ton in the first half of 17 years, and 38 yuan / ton in 17 years. The results of the cost reduction and efficiency increase are significant. We estimate that the company's net profit will increase in 2017. 47%.

      Investment suggestion: It is estimated that the company's net profit at home in 2017-2019 is 2.92/4.33/5.30 billion yuan, EPS is 0.35/0.52/0.63 yuan, and PE is 17/11/9 times, respectively. Into the rating.

      Risk warning: acquisition projects fell short of expectations, pig prices fell more than expected, bird flu, environmental policy tightening.

    http://sc.stock.cnfol.com/shichangju...27430137.shtml


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