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China - Bird flu has been detected: elimination rate of chickens has increased sharply in recent days - January 4, 2019

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  • China - Bird flu has been detected: elimination rate of chickens has increased sharply in recent days - January 4, 2019

    Eggs: Rationally Treating the Spring Festival Consumption Quotes

    January 4, 2019, 13:53 Hongye Futures
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    Business News January 04   First, the egg( 3425 , 15.00 , 0.44% ) price is running weakly
      The egg price continued to fall, and the egg index continued to break down. From the trend of the moving average, the 1905 contract and the 1909 contract failed to get rid of the downtrend. It will take time to stabilize.
      The current price of eggs is also showing a weak operation. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas is slowly declining. From the basis of the trend, it can be found that the spot price falls faster than the futures. The recent New Year's stocking failed to drive the price of eggs, and the weak price of eggs did not change.
      Second, the profit of laying hens declined
      Since the end of November, the bird flu epidemic has been detected, causing fears of weakening consumption, and egg prices have fallen sharply. The cost of laying hens has fallen sharply, and the support for egg prices has weakened. According to statistics from Zhihua, the profit of laying hens has continued to decline recently, from 1.09 yuan/kg at the beginning of November to 0.71 yuan/kg at present. The elimination rate of chickens has increased sharply in recent days.
      At present, the number of laying hens in the country and the total number of laying hens in the country are both lower than the same period last year. The supply pressure is relatively small compared with last year; the number of brooding chickens has rebounded; The profit is hard to change, the old chicken is eliminated or further increased, and the brooding keeps up.
      Third, the Chinese New Year consumer demand is difficult to support
      As can be seen from the egg trade situation, the current speed of receiving goods has risen rapidly, but the stocks have been slow and stocks have rebounded slightly. The previous New Year's stocking market did not push up the price of eggs, but the price of eggs continued to weaken. At present, the Chinese New Year consumption market is starting soon, but as we discussed earlier, the supply and demand of eggs are relatively saturated, and the Spring Festival is expected to be overdrawn in advance; and the post-holiday consumption season is short-lived, and the driving effect can be limited.
      Fourth, summary and recommendations
      With the decline in the profit of laying hens, the cost of breeding has fallen back. The elimination rate of old chickens has increased in the later period, and the brooding chickens have rebounded. It is expected that the production capacity of laying hens will be restored and the supply pressure of eggs will increase. Technically, the main force of the egg is difficult to turn, and it takes time to stabilize.
      (Article source: Hongye Futures)