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Egg price or replay history Dragon Boat Price shock 4.8 yuan / kg
April 18, 2018 09:18
With the approach of May Day, the spot price of eggs( 4047 ,-11.00 , -0.27% ) began to rise. On April 17th, the Zihua egg price index rose to 3.46, up 8.8% from the beginning of April. The price of eggs in recent months rose sharply. JD1805 closed at 3700 yuan/500 kg, or 3.73%; JD1806 closed at 3716 yuan/500 kg, or 3.45%; JD1807 closed at 3713 yuan/500 kg, or 2.57%. To this end, regarding the status quo and the possible future trend of the market, Zhihua Data interviewed Mr. L, the industry leader of the layer industry, and presented these fundamental analysis and insights to everyone in order to provide reference for readers' analysis and judgment.
With the approach of May Day, the spot price of eggs( 4047 ,-11.00 , -0.27% ) began to rise. On April 17th, the Zihua egg price index rose to 3.46, up 8.8% from the beginning of April. The price of eggs in recent months rose sharply. JD1805 closed at 3700 yuan/500 kg, or 3.73%; JD1806 closed at 3716 yuan/500 kg, or 3.45%; JD1807 closed at 3713 yuan/500 kg, or 2.57%. To this end, regarding the status quo and the possible future trend of the market, Zhihua Data interviewed Mr. L, the industry leader of the layer industry, and presented these fundamental analysis and insights to everyone in order to provide reference for readers' analysis and judgment.
Retention of the price history may be repeated
The industry’s Mr. L. said that understanding the inventory has a clearer understanding of the current state of egg prices. “We sometimes mix and dispel knockouts and puts together to discuss, and the results of such analysis are actually not very clear. Therefore, in actual work, we should first make a chart with the theoretical deposits, and then make a correction for elimination. The understanding of the entire population can be relatively thorough.” He analyzed the data provided by data sources such as ZIHUA data and indicated that from the curve of the past three years, it can be seen that the recent theoretical inventory is low. This is consistent with the current price status. “The lowest price after the Spring Festival this year is actually two blocks of eight or two. This price is relatively low compared to the Spring Festival period. But compared with previous years, this price is relatively high.
Last year’s November was also a At the low point, the low point of these prices is a reaction to the most real state of the population."
The theoretical inventory is usually considered 510 days out, which is 17 months out. So many people have two misunderstandings. The first misconception is that after a large number of restockings in October, November, December and even January, there should be more stocks than the Spring Festival, so there will be doubts about the upward movement of eggs. The industry's big coffee Mr. Lu expressed that this view is wrong, on-the-spot change should use the fill column minus elimination, April's inventory is equal to December's supplement column minus March's elimination. “The second misconception is that the data needs to be corrected. There are a lot of data on the market, but these are actually theoretical data. Which one is relatively accurate? Which data can explain the price changes in recent years? Relatively accurate. If you cannot explain the actual price change, then the data is relatively error."
Looking back at the history of the Dragon Boat Festival in several years, we can see that there is a long period of very low prices in front of it, and a very low price indicates that the elimination is concentrated. “Only the previous phase-out is relatively concentrated and there will be a fierce rise in the back. This rise was guided by the superposition of the two festivals of the Dragon Boat Festival and May Day. Therefore, there are many years when the Dragon Boat Festival is absent or very weak. ."
Respondents stated that the trend before the Dragon Boat Festival this year was very similar to the trend of spot prices in 2007. In the state of the bird flu outbreak superimposed in 2006, a long period of low peaks was formed. Therefore, the price for the Spring Festival in 2007 was quite high. “The high prices lead to delayed elimination. The old chickens were completely phased out in the months of March and March of the Spring Festival. So there was an explosive growth in the Dragon Boat Festival in 2007. The price was quite amazing and higher than the price at the time of the Spring Festival. 4 to 5 cents. I think this year is likely to repeat this fact."
Amazing phase-out to help the Dragon Boat Festival
Reducing the current egg price trend, the industry’s Mr. L. said that he was optimistic about the Dragon Boat Festival and divided the Dragon Boat Festival into “two steps”: the first goal is to approach the high point of the Spring Festival. That is, about 3 blocks. In the second step, he once again emphasized that this year's current egg trend is exactly the same as in 2007: “If you follow the pattern in 2007, the high point should be 4 blocks 8.”
For the optimistic view of the Dragon Boat Festival, he said that there was an increase in the phase-out amount as a basis. "Even if the market is good, the old chicken still needs to be eliminated. It has been delayed to about 540-580 days. If you add three months later, it will be more than 600 days. This chicken cannot survive in the market. Even if it can produce The quality of eggs and eggs is not high, and traders are not willing to accept them, so they will be forced to eliminate them.In addition, the spring is the peak of the reserve, once missed the fill column will not catch up with the Mid-Autumn market, so to make the bar must also eliminate the old chicken According to data monitoring by Zhihua, entering into April 2018, the old chickens before and after the Ching Ming Festival are very large. Mr. L, the industry analyst, analyzed that the phase-out rate has risen rapidly, which is a fundamental reason for determining the development of the market. “The date of scouring chickens has been reduced from 560 days to 490 days, which is equivalent to a two-month knock-out, which can be verified from the decline in the proportion of large eggs. If the big eggs are continuously reduced, The situation of delayed elimination is slowly improving, and old chickens are gradually being eliminated.” He said that after the elimination in March and April, about 8% to 10% of the entire market will be consumed. "In other words, the current population data should be 8% to 10% lower than the time of the Spring Festival. This is a huge amount and it is a fundamental driving force for the development of the entire market."
Since the deposits have declined, why did the egg prices in March still not improve? The industry’s big coffee Mr. L said that mainly because consumer demand in March is often relatively weak, and by April, consumption has slowly increased, with March The approaching of the festivals such as the March 1st and the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand of the industry and the consumption of the family have gradually risen at this time, so the price of eggs has been led upwards. This is the second basis.
In addition, he believes that there is another feature this year that traders basically have very little inventory. "The North has basically heard no news about cold storage stocks. The key reason is that the prices are too high, so there is no inventory pressure when real demand breaks out. This is a fundamental reason why egg prices are so explosive. It is also ours. It can be predicted that the egg price will reach 4.8 yuan/kg."
Short-term market will not callback
From April 10th to April 15th, Zhihua Data team went to Fujian and Guangdong to conduct industry in-depth research (please pay attention to “Zihua Data” public number: zhsjfx, or add “Zihua Egg” Wechat Consulting: zhsjdz ). From the survey, we learned that many large-scale companies have started to put into production, small eggs have increased, and big eggs have decreased. So will these affect the price? Analysts said that in the past year, some small households were going to produce capacity, and the recent production capacity recovery depends on large households. This is the so-called industrial scale process. “These factors will have a certain impact on the price of eggs, but the effects will only appear after a period of time, that is, after the Dragon Boat Festival will be reflected in the egg prices.” According to the law of price movement, after the egg price is rising, there will often be a correction on the weekend. “In the past, price increases were first caused by traders picking up goods and grabbing goods. In the past, four to five days later, they would have fallen by 1 to 2 cents, and then went on a second-step increase. But this time, the rise was completely different. After going up, there is no further callback, and the phenomenon of stockpiling has already disappeared.” He analyzed that in recent days, the second wave has risen, and most people still do not realize it. "People generally think that they will call back, and they are waiting for a callback and then buying and selling goods. But the facts will tell everyone that there is no callback for this market. When you grab the goods, this market may have reached its climax."
zhttp://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/agri/2018-04-18/doc-ifyuwqfa3465993.shtml
April 18, 2018 09:18
With the approach of May Day, the spot price of eggs( 4047 ,-11.00 , -0.27% ) began to rise. On April 17th, the Zihua egg price index rose to 3.46, up 8.8% from the beginning of April. The price of eggs in recent months rose sharply. JD1805 closed at 3700 yuan/500 kg, or 3.73%; JD1806 closed at 3716 yuan/500 kg, or 3.45%; JD1807 closed at 3713 yuan/500 kg, or 2.57%. To this end, regarding the status quo and the possible future trend of the market, Zhihua Data interviewed Mr. L, the industry leader of the layer industry, and presented these fundamental analysis and insights to everyone in order to provide reference for readers' analysis and judgment.
With the approach of May Day, the spot price of eggs( 4047 ,-11.00 , -0.27% ) began to rise. On April 17th, the Zihua egg price index rose to 3.46, up 8.8% from the beginning of April. The price of eggs in recent months rose sharply. JD1805 closed at 3700 yuan/500 kg, or 3.73%; JD1806 closed at 3716 yuan/500 kg, or 3.45%; JD1807 closed at 3713 yuan/500 kg, or 2.57%. To this end, regarding the status quo and the possible future trend of the market, Zhihua Data interviewed Mr. L, the industry leader of the layer industry, and presented these fundamental analysis and insights to everyone in order to provide reference for readers' analysis and judgment.
Retention of the price history may be repeated
The industry’s Mr. L. said that understanding the inventory has a clearer understanding of the current state of egg prices. “We sometimes mix and dispel knockouts and puts together to discuss, and the results of such analysis are actually not very clear. Therefore, in actual work, we should first make a chart with the theoretical deposits, and then make a correction for elimination. The understanding of the entire population can be relatively thorough.” He analyzed the data provided by data sources such as ZIHUA data and indicated that from the curve of the past three years, it can be seen that the recent theoretical inventory is low. This is consistent with the current price status. “The lowest price after the Spring Festival this year is actually two blocks of eight or two. This price is relatively low compared to the Spring Festival period. But compared with previous years, this price is relatively high.
Last year’s November was also a At the low point, the low point of these prices is a reaction to the most real state of the population."
The theoretical inventory is usually considered 510 days out, which is 17 months out. So many people have two misunderstandings. The first misconception is that after a large number of restockings in October, November, December and even January, there should be more stocks than the Spring Festival, so there will be doubts about the upward movement of eggs. The industry's big coffee Mr. Lu expressed that this view is wrong, on-the-spot change should use the fill column minus elimination, April's inventory is equal to December's supplement column minus March's elimination. “The second misconception is that the data needs to be corrected. There are a lot of data on the market, but these are actually theoretical data. Which one is relatively accurate? Which data can explain the price changes in recent years? Relatively accurate. If you cannot explain the actual price change, then the data is relatively error."
Looking back at the history of the Dragon Boat Festival in several years, we can see that there is a long period of very low prices in front of it, and a very low price indicates that the elimination is concentrated. “Only the previous phase-out is relatively concentrated and there will be a fierce rise in the back. This rise was guided by the superposition of the two festivals of the Dragon Boat Festival and May Day. Therefore, there are many years when the Dragon Boat Festival is absent or very weak. ."
Respondents stated that the trend before the Dragon Boat Festival this year was very similar to the trend of spot prices in 2007. In the state of the bird flu outbreak superimposed in 2006, a long period of low peaks was formed. Therefore, the price for the Spring Festival in 2007 was quite high. “The high prices lead to delayed elimination. The old chickens were completely phased out in the months of March and March of the Spring Festival. So there was an explosive growth in the Dragon Boat Festival in 2007. The price was quite amazing and higher than the price at the time of the Spring Festival. 4 to 5 cents. I think this year is likely to repeat this fact."
Amazing phase-out to help the Dragon Boat Festival
Reducing the current egg price trend, the industry’s Mr. L. said that he was optimistic about the Dragon Boat Festival and divided the Dragon Boat Festival into “two steps”: the first goal is to approach the high point of the Spring Festival. That is, about 3 blocks. In the second step, he once again emphasized that this year's current egg trend is exactly the same as in 2007: “If you follow the pattern in 2007, the high point should be 4 blocks 8.”
For the optimistic view of the Dragon Boat Festival, he said that there was an increase in the phase-out amount as a basis. "Even if the market is good, the old chicken still needs to be eliminated. It has been delayed to about 540-580 days. If you add three months later, it will be more than 600 days. This chicken cannot survive in the market. Even if it can produce The quality of eggs and eggs is not high, and traders are not willing to accept them, so they will be forced to eliminate them.In addition, the spring is the peak of the reserve, once missed the fill column will not catch up with the Mid-Autumn market, so to make the bar must also eliminate the old chicken According to data monitoring by Zhihua, entering into April 2018, the old chickens before and after the Ching Ming Festival are very large. Mr. L, the industry analyst, analyzed that the phase-out rate has risen rapidly, which is a fundamental reason for determining the development of the market. “The date of scouring chickens has been reduced from 560 days to 490 days, which is equivalent to a two-month knock-out, which can be verified from the decline in the proportion of large eggs. If the big eggs are continuously reduced, The situation of delayed elimination is slowly improving, and old chickens are gradually being eliminated.” He said that after the elimination in March and April, about 8% to 10% of the entire market will be consumed. "In other words, the current population data should be 8% to 10% lower than the time of the Spring Festival. This is a huge amount and it is a fundamental driving force for the development of the entire market."
Since the deposits have declined, why did the egg prices in March still not improve? The industry’s big coffee Mr. L said that mainly because consumer demand in March is often relatively weak, and by April, consumption has slowly increased, with March The approaching of the festivals such as the March 1st and the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand of the industry and the consumption of the family have gradually risen at this time, so the price of eggs has been led upwards. This is the second basis.
In addition, he believes that there is another feature this year that traders basically have very little inventory. "The North has basically heard no news about cold storage stocks. The key reason is that the prices are too high, so there is no inventory pressure when real demand breaks out. This is a fundamental reason why egg prices are so explosive. It is also ours. It can be predicted that the egg price will reach 4.8 yuan/kg."
Short-term market will not callback
From April 10th to April 15th, Zhihua Data team went to Fujian and Guangdong to conduct industry in-depth research (please pay attention to “Zihua Data” public number: zhsjfx, or add “Zihua Egg” Wechat Consulting: zhsjdz ). From the survey, we learned that many large-scale companies have started to put into production, small eggs have increased, and big eggs have decreased. So will these affect the price? Analysts said that in the past year, some small households were going to produce capacity, and the recent production capacity recovery depends on large households. This is the so-called industrial scale process. “These factors will have a certain impact on the price of eggs, but the effects will only appear after a period of time, that is, after the Dragon Boat Festival will be reflected in the egg prices.” According to the law of price movement, after the egg price is rising, there will often be a correction on the weekend. “In the past, price increases were first caused by traders picking up goods and grabbing goods. In the past, four to five days later, they would have fallen by 1 to 2 cents, and then went on a second-step increase. But this time, the rise was completely different. After going up, there is no further callback, and the phenomenon of stockpiling has already disappeared.” He analyzed that in recent days, the second wave has risen, and most people still do not realize it. "People generally think that they will call back, and they are waiting for a callback and then buying and selling goods. But the facts will tell everyone that there is no callback for this market. When you grab the goods, this market may have reached its climax."
zhttp://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/agri/2018-04-18/doc-ifyuwqfa3465993.shtml
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