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Why Chinese Scientists Are More Worried Than Ever About Bird Flu
April 11, 20175:06 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Rob Schmitz 2016 square
ROB SCHMITZ
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This lab at Hong Kong University is at the world's forefront of our understanding of H7N9, a deadly strain of the bird flu that has killed more people this season — 162 from September up to March 1 — than in any single season since when it was first discovered in humans four years ago. That worries lab director Guan Yi. But what disturbs him more is how fast this strain is evolving. "We're trying our best, but we still can't control this virus," says Guan. "It's too late for us to eradicate it."
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"Ten years ago, H7N9 was less lethal," says Guan. "Now it's become deadlier in chickens. Before it barely affected chickens. Now many are dying. Our research shows it can kill all the chickens in our lab within 24 hours. If this latest mutation isn't stopped, more will die."
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What worries Guan more, though, is that H7N9 has proved an ability to mutate quickly. There's no evidence that the virus has become more deadly in people. But already, in the rare cases when humans catch it from birds, more than a third of them die.
Currently, the virus hasn't been known to spread easily among humans, but Guan fears a future mutation could. "Based on my 20 years of studying H7N9 — the virus itself as well as how the government handles it — I'm pessimistic," says Guan, shaking his head. "I think this virus poses the greatest threat to humanity than any other in the past 100 years."
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Guan's choice of 100 years is deliberate. Next year will mark the 100th anniversary of what was known as the Spanish flu, the most devastating epidemic in recorded history. As World War I drew to a close, the influenza of 1918 killed between 20 million and 50 million people, all dead from a flu that originated in birds. He says it's not a stretch to envision another global pandemic.
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Fukuda, who now teaches at Hong Kong University's school of public health, says H7N9's ability to mutate from low pathogenic to highly pathogenic — deadly and infectious — in chickens disturbs him.
"It makes us queasy," Fukuda says. "Because it's a very visible way to see these viruses as restless. Some of these changes are dead-end, but some are not. And this genetic mutation is not. It's becoming more lethal for poultry. For people? We're not sure."
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http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsand...about-bird-flu
April 11, 20175:06 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Rob Schmitz 2016 square
ROB SCHMITZ
...
This lab at Hong Kong University is at the world's forefront of our understanding of H7N9, a deadly strain of the bird flu that has killed more people this season — 162 from September up to March 1 — than in any single season since when it was first discovered in humans four years ago. That worries lab director Guan Yi. But what disturbs him more is how fast this strain is evolving. "We're trying our best, but we still can't control this virus," says Guan. "It's too late for us to eradicate it."
...
"Ten years ago, H7N9 was less lethal," says Guan. "Now it's become deadlier in chickens. Before it barely affected chickens. Now many are dying. Our research shows it can kill all the chickens in our lab within 24 hours. If this latest mutation isn't stopped, more will die."
...
What worries Guan more, though, is that H7N9 has proved an ability to mutate quickly. There's no evidence that the virus has become more deadly in people. But already, in the rare cases when humans catch it from birds, more than a third of them die.
Currently, the virus hasn't been known to spread easily among humans, but Guan fears a future mutation could. "Based on my 20 years of studying H7N9 — the virus itself as well as how the government handles it — I'm pessimistic," says Guan, shaking his head. "I think this virus poses the greatest threat to humanity than any other in the past 100 years."
...
Guan's choice of 100 years is deliberate. Next year will mark the 100th anniversary of what was known as the Spanish flu, the most devastating epidemic in recorded history. As World War I drew to a close, the influenza of 1918 killed between 20 million and 50 million people, all dead from a flu that originated in birds. He says it's not a stretch to envision another global pandemic.
...
Fukuda, who now teaches at Hong Kong University's school of public health, says H7N9's ability to mutate from low pathogenic to highly pathogenic — deadly and infectious — in chickens disturbs him.
"It makes us queasy," Fukuda says. "Because it's a very visible way to see these viruses as restless. Some of these changes are dead-end, but some are not. And this genetic mutation is not. It's becoming more lethal for poultry. For people? We're not sure."
...
http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsand...about-bird-flu