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Can China keep track of H7N9 avian flu cases? Or H5N6?

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  • Can China keep track of H7N9 avian flu cases? Or H5N6?


    In the standard monthly notifiable disease report prepared by the China National Health and Family Planning Commission there is no entry for H7N9 flu. In fact, only about 1/3 of the list is now published on their website:

    Click image for larger version

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    http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/jkj/s3578/20...eebf6c96.shtml



    The classificiation "Unclassified hepatitis" is the last entry. Please compare to the November 2016 report to see the actual listing of reportable diseases:
    A Survey of Statutory Infectious Diseases in China in Nov

    Published: 2016-12-14



      November 2016 (November 1, 2016 to November 30, 2400), the country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the same below) a total of 599,559 cases of legal infectious diseases, death 1876 people. Among them, a class of infectious diseases plague, cholera without disease, death report. Infectious diseases such as SARS, diphtheria, poliomyelitis and human highly pathogenic avian influenza were not reported. The remaining 22 kinds of infectious diseases reported 280752 cases of death and 1868 deaths. The top five reported diseases were viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, syphilis, gonorrhea, and bacterial and amebic dysentery, accounting for 93% of the total number of reported cases of B infectious diseases.
      In the same period, there was no incidence and death of filariasis in C infectious diseases. The remaining 10 infectious diseases reported 318807 cases and 8 deaths. The top three reported diseases were hand-foot-mouth disease, other infectious diarrhea and influenza, accounting for 94% of the total number of reported cases of C infectious diseases.


      annex
    Statutory November 2016 National infectious
    morbidity, mortality tables
    Disease name
    Incidence
    Deaths **
    A, B and C categories
    599559
    1876
    Total Class B Infectious Diseases
    280752
    1868
    plague
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    cholera
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Infectious atypical pneumonia
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    AIDS
    5743
    1578
    Viral *
    116519
    37
    Hepatitis A
    1875
    1
    Hepatitis B
    91478
    28
    Hepatitis C
    19100
    7
    D hepatitis
    53
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Hepatitis E
    2168
    1
    Unclassified hepatitis
    1845
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    polio
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    measles
    336
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Epidemic hemorrhagic fever
    1248
    8
    Rabies
    52
    58
    Epidemic encephalitis
    51
    7
    dengue
    196
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Anthrax
    twenty one
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Bacterial and amoebic dysentery
    6699
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    tuberculosis
    87963
    171
    Typhoid and paratyphoid
    821
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis
    6
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    pertussis
    410
    1
    diphtheria
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Neonatal tetanus
    8
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Scarlet fever
    6097
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Brucellosis
    2634
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    gonorrhea
    11171
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    syphilis
    38914
    8
    Leptospirosis
    77
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Schistosomiasis
    1585
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    malaria
    195
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Human infection with H7N9avian influenza
    6
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Total Class C Infectious Diseases
    318807
    8
    influenza
    20800
    1
    Epidemic parotitis
    16073
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    rubella
    162
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis
    2524
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Leprosy
    56
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    typhus
    158
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Kala - azar
    26
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Hydatid disease
    639
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Filariasis
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Other infectious diarrhea
    60615
    Lt; / RTI & gt;
    Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease
    217754
    7
    http://www.nhfpc.gov.cn/jkj/s3578/20...51f58863.shtml


    Please note: Lt/RTI & gt: is an indication of 0 (zero).


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Why does China only publish part of their monthly notifiable disease listing now- and literally - stopping just before the listing for H7N9 avian flu?

    Are they concealing cases and deaths - or is the situation so out-of-control that they can not count the numbers accurately?


    Last edited by sharon sanders; February 5, 2017, 12:50 PM. Reason: clarification

  • #2
    I made a clarification in the title and in the present tense of the verbs in the above post. A friend of FluTrackers reminded me that originally the report did list 106 cases and 20 deaths. For some reason the list is now truncated and the H7N9 data does not display to the public:


    China - HFPC announces 106 H7N9 cases and 20 deaths for December 2016 - January 11, 2017 - All cases probably known from Hong Kong CHP disclosure of 10/1/17

    Comment


    • #3
      The link to the original December report, which lists the H7N9 count, is completely gone:
      Not Found

      The requested URL /jkj/s3578/201701/5038707a8e50477794c6025fd3d4fcba.shtml was not found on this server.

      Comment


      • #4
        When I translated their Monthly report for December, the URL was as bellow (1).
        Today, after reading your message, I tried to use the URL but in vain.
        Fortunately I have already uploaded my translation and the related list for Dec. as bellow (2).

        (1) NHFPC's URL already broken:


        (2) My lab's page:


        The first one (http://mi-jch.com/wp-content/uploads...210fba6dcd.pdf
        ) is their report, the second one(http://mi-jch.com/wp-content/uploads...1c4af175b4.pdf
        ) is the list which you want.
        Though it is translated into Japanese, you can easily grasp the contents since their format is the same every month.
        Fortunately I put an Chinese name of each disease!!: LOL

        Here, they reports 106 cases and 20 deaths.

        Is this helpful for you?

        Comment


        • #5
          Yes. Thank you. I was making a point that the China NHFPC deleted their original report that included all of the notifiable diseases including H7N9 and have replaced it with a list that that stops before the H7N9 category is listed.

          Comment


          • #6
            Dear Sharon-san,
            Yes, NHFPC is so mysterious for us: LOL
            It seems that they usually controlling the number of the patients.
            For example, they reduce lots of patients in the Yearly-Report from the cumulative total (based on 12 months' report) especially for "Hepatitis B" or "Tuberculosis".

            Today Feb. 23, 2017) , the NHFPC released the Year-2016's Infectious disease report.
            The reported numbers of each disease patient shows big difference in the above disease especially.
            Hepatitis B : 942,268 in this Yearly Report 1,100,691 (accumulation of each monthly report) ==>158,423 were reduced
            Tuberculosis: 836,236 in this Yearly Report 1,121,019 (accumulation of each monthly report) ==>284,783 were reduced

            And the number of patients and the number of death in Rabies is so interesting every year.
            So many patients do not die even after diagnosed!!! For example, 644 was diagnosed but only 592 died in the year 2016, and 801 was diagnosed but only 744 died in the year 2015. Don't you think it is strange? I was told Rabies's fatality is thought to be 99.99% from many doctors.

            AS FOR H7N9:
            It is reporting as follows:
            人感染H7N9禽流感
            264
            73

            Comment


            • #7
              The government of China is very dishonest in their reporting. For instance they omitted the H5N6 cases from their 2016 list above: Click image for larger version

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              There were 9 human infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 with onset dates in 2016:


              2016

              7) Male, 25, onset January 1, 2016, hospitalized January 4, 2016 in critical condition, Longgang, Shenzhen, Guangdong province Death WHO rpt Jan. 11 note

              9) Female, 31, onset January 8, hospitalized in critical condition, Futian, Shenzhen, Guangdong province WHO rpt Jan 28

              11) Female, 40, onset February 20, hospitalized February 22, critical condition, Guizhou, Guangdong province WHO rpt March 23 WHO rpt April 4 Death note

              12) Male, 35, onset April 9, hospitalized April 12, critical condition, Hubei WHO rpt May 6

              13) Female, 11, onset April 11, hospitalized April 13, ICU April 18, discharged, Zhuzhou City, Hunan note WHO rpt May 6

              14) Female, 65, onset April 24, hospitalized April 27, Xuancheng, Anhui WHO rpt May 10

              15) Male, 50, [Tian], onset May 23, hospitalized in critical condition May 28, Xiangxi, Hunan WHO rpt June 8 Death note

              16) Female, 47, [Luo], onset and hospitalized on November 18, died on November 20, Shaoyang, Whugang, Hunan Death WHO rpt Dec 7

              17) Female, 30, onset November 8, hospitalized November 18 in critical condition, Luizhou, Guangxi WHO rpt Dec 7


              Source:

              FluTrackers H5N6 Cumulative Case List link
              Last edited by sharon sanders; February 23, 2017, 04:10 PM. Reason: link format

              Comment


              • #8
                I have taken a screen shot for posterity:

                Click image for larger version

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                General Situation of National Statutory Infectious Diseases in 2016

                Posted: 2017-02-23
                  2016 years (January 1, 2010 0:00 to December 31 at 24:00), the country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the same below) reported a total of 6944240 cases of legal infectious diseases, death 18237 people, the reported incidence of 506.59 / 10 Million, reported mortality rate of 1.33 / 10 million.
                  2016 national statutory infectious diseases by category statistics: First, a class of infectious diseases in the plague reported 1 case; cholera reported the incidence of 27 cases, no death, reported incidence increased by 100.00% over 2015. Second, B infectious diseases in addition to infectious atypical pneumonia, poliomyelitis and diphtheria without disease, death report, the other reported a total of 2956472 cases of disease, death of 17968 people; reported incidence of 215.67 / 10 million, down 3.5% % Reported a mortality rate of 1.31 / 10 million, an increase of 7.68% over 2015. The top five diseases were reported as viral hepatitis, tuberculosis, syphilis, bacterial and amoebic dysentery, gonorrhea, accounting for 92.48% of the total reported incidence of infectious diseases of class B; reported the top five deaths Of the disease followed by AIDS, tuberculosis, rabies, viral hepatitis and human infection H7N9 avian influenza, accounting for B infectious diseases reported 98.84% of the total number of deaths. Third, C cases of infectious diseases in addition to filariasis without disease, death report, the other reported a total of 3987740 cases of disease, 269 deaths, reported incidence of 290.91 / 10 million, reported mortality rate of 0.020 / 10 million, respectively, compared with 2015 Up 17.89% and 67.52%. The top five diseases reported were hand, foot and mouth disease, other infectious diarrheal diseases, influenza, epidemic parotitis and acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, accounting for 99.72% of the total reported incidence of C infectious diseases; The number of deaths for the hand, foot and mouth disease, influenza and other infectious diarrheal diseases, accounting for C infectious diseases reported 98.51% of the total number of deaths.
                  In 2016 the national class B infectious diseases by means of transmission statistics: First, the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases 206177 cases, 29 deaths; reported incidence of 15.04 / 10 million, reported mortality rate of 0.0021 / 10 million, respectively, compared with 2015 9.88% and 19.23% respectively. Second, the report of respiratory tract infectious disease incidence of 926,287 cases, the death of 2569 people; reported incidence of 67.57 / 10 million, reported mortality rate of 0.19 / 10 million, respectively, compared with 2015 decreased by 6.21% and up 5.52%. Three reported the incidence of natural and arbital infectious diseases 66765 cases, 709 deaths; reported incidence of 4.87 / 10 million, reported mortality rate of 0.052 / 10 million, respectively, compared with 2015 decreased by 39.98% and 17.44%. Fourth, the report of blood and sexually transmitted diseases, the incidence of 1757094 cases, 14,658 deaths; reported incidence of 128.18 / 10 million, reported mortality rate of 1.07 / 10 million, respectively, compared with 2015 increased by 1.15% and 9.86%.
                annex
                2016 national legal infectious disease incidence, death statistics
                Sick name
                Number of cases
                Number of deaths (person)
                 
                Incidence ( / 100 000 )
                Mortality (/ 100 000)
                Class A and Class B
                6944240
                18237
                506.5857
                1.3303
                Class A and B infectious diseases
                2956500
                17968
                 
                215.6764
                1.3107
                plague
                1
                0
                0.0001
                0
                cholera
                27
                0
                0.002
                0
                Infectious atypical pneumonia
                0
                0
                0
                0
                AIDS
                54360
                14091
                3.9656
                1.028
                Viral hepatitis
                1221479
                537
                89.108
                0.0392
                Hepatitis A
                21285
                5
                1.5528
                0.0004
                Hepatitis B
                942268
                405
                68.7393
                0.0295
                Hepatitis C
                206832
                108
                15.0886
                0.0079
                Hepatitis D
                411
                0
                0.03
                0
                Hepatitis E
                27922
                15
                2.0369
                0.0011
                Unclassified hepatitis
                22761
                4
                1.6604
                0.0003
                polio
                0
                0
                0
                0
                Human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza
                0
                1
                0
                0.0001
                measles
                24820
                18
                1.8106
                0.0013
                Epidemic hemorrhagic fever
                8853
                48
                0.6458
                0.0035
                Rabies
                644
                592
                0.047
                0.0432
                Epidemic encephalitis
                1237
                47
                0.0902
                0.0034
                dengue
                2050
                0
                0.1495
                0
                Anthrax
                374
                2
                0.0273
                0.0001
                Bacterial and amoebic dysentery
                123283
                4
                8.9936
                0.0003
                tuberculosis
                836236
                2465
                61.0042
                0.1798
                Typhoid and paratyphoid
                10899
                1
                0.7951
                0.0001
                Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis
                101
                10
                0.0074
                0.0007
                pertussis
                5584
                3
                0.4074
                0.0002
                diphtheria
                0
                0
                0
                0
                Neonatal tetanus
                177
                3
                0.0114
                0.0002
                Scarlet fever
                59282
                0
                4.3247
                0
                Brucellosis
                47139
                2
                3.4388
                0.0001
                gonorrhea
                115024
                1
                8.3911
                0.0001
                syphilis
                438199
                53
                31.967
                0.0039
                Leptospirosis
                354
                1
                0.0258
                0.0001
                Schistosomiasis
                2924
                0
                0.2133
                0
                malaria
                3189
                16
                0.2326
                0.0012
                Human infection with H7N9 avian influenza
                264
                73
                0.0193
                0.0053
                Class C Infectious Diseases Total
                3987740
                269
                 
                290.9094
                0.0196
                influenza
                306682
                56
                22.3727
                0.0041
                Mumps
                175001
                0
                12.7665
                0
                rubella
                4535
                0
                0.3308
                0
                Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis
                34253
                0
                2.4988
                0
                Leprosy
                284
                0
                0.0207
                0
                typhus
                1160
                1
                0.0846
                0.0001
                Black fever
                305
                1
                0.0223
                0.0001
                Hydatid disease
                4777
                2
                0.3485
                0.0001
                Filariasis
                0
                0
                0
                0
                Other infectious diarrhea
                1018605
                14
                74.3082
                0.001
                Hand, Foot and mouth disease
                2442138
                195
                 
                178.1562
                0.0142

                  Note: 1. Table of the data for the annual report cases according to the date of the onset of clinical diagnosis of laboratory cases and laboratory confirmed cases (excluding foreign and Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao).
                    2. Viral hepatitis reported the number of deaths, the number of deaths for hepatitis A, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, hepatitis D, hepatitis E and the total number of non-classified hepatitis.
                    3. Reporting rate of neonatal tetanus and reported mortality rate is / 1000.
                    4. Population data used by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2016 announced by the end of 2015 the national resident population information.


                Comment


                • #9
                  Based on my 11 years of tracking diseases all over the world, I do not believe one thing from the Chinese government. I have seen many, many inconsistencies over the years.

                  Lying to the public is one way to GUARANTEE that they will panic in a crisis.

                  Comment

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