Re: Canada - British Columbia: HP H5N2 Avian Influenza confirmed on 10 farms in Fraser Valley
I compare this with the reaction of the American press to ebola, which IMO was a non-event in USA.
This new H5N8 virus gives America a new, entirely different reservoir of influenza viruses to select
from for reassortment with human or swine viruses.
The last time that this happened was in the ~1950s and two pandemics followed
that picked new avian segments (2,4,6) in 1957 and (2,4) in 1968 for reassortment
with circulating human viruses.
While diversity in segments 4,6 is already big in the wild bird's population,
diversity in segment 2 isn't. Nor is it in 1,3,5,7 and 2 types in 8.
Well, this reassortment could also (more likely) happen in Asia, they already
had the viruses and even the domestic ducks as mixing vessel.
But now we (we=mankind) get the American types of HAs and NAs that
weren't available before. Plus the 17g types, and the American H5N2 poultry viruses.
H5N8 currently doesn't infect humans, at least we have seen no cases so far.
But we know, how quickly that can change, when it keeps reassorting.
Fouchier,Kawaoka, etc. may soon show how few mutations are needed
or what other reassortments may achieve likely transmission in humans.
H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 happened in Asia, but some of the segments are
closer to American avian viruses:
>A/Index/1957(H2N2)
----------segment 2-------------
466 106 2274 46 >CY014669,A/turkey/Wisconsin/1/1966,1966//,USA,H9N2,Avian,2
488 111 2274 30 >GU052881,A/turkey/Canada/1963,1963//,Canada,H6N8,Avian,2
510 116 2274 26 >GU052524,A/chicken/Scotland/1959,1959//,United Kingdom,H5N1,Avian,2
510 116 2274 31 >CY130020,A/duck/Ukraine/1/1963,1963//,Ukraine,H3N8,Avian,2
540 123 2274 17 >CY130028,A/duck/Czechoslovakia/1956,1956//,Czech Republic,H4N6,Avian,2
----------segment 4-------------
578 7 121 134 >CY077449,A/mallard/New Zealand/449-94/2004,2004//,New Zealand,H2N3,Avian,4
680 115 1689 491 >L11129,A/duck/Germany/1972,1972//,Germany,H2N9,Avian,4
698 118 1689 86 >CY014710,A/duck/Germany/1215/1973,1973//,Germany,H2N3,Avian,4
----------segment 6-------------
638 90 1410 3 >AY968677,A/turkey/Canada/63,1963//,Canada,H6N2,Avian,6
638 90 1410 25 >GU052550,A/turkey/England/N28/1973,1973//,United Kingdom,H5N2,Avian,6
652 92 1410 1137 >AY724264,A/chicken/Hebei/1/2002,2002//,China,H7N2,Avian,6
673 95 1410 31 >CY005554,A/duck/Hong Kong/7/1975,1975//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,6
702 99 1410 15 >EU182282,A/turkey/Wisconsin/1966,1966//,USA,H9N2,Avian,6
>A/Beijing/1/1968(H3N2)
----------segment 2-------------
314 12 381 167 >CY177572,A/duck/Minnesota/51/1975,1975//,USA,H6N2,Avian,2
321 73 2274 119 >CY181335,A/mallard/Wisconsin/23/1974,1974//,USA,H6N2,Avian,2
325 74 2274 87 >DQ870886,A/turkey/Oregon/1971,1971//,USA,H7N3,Avian,2
329 75 2274 186 >GU186638,A/duck/Alberta/35/1976,1976//,Canada,H1N1,Avian,2
334 76 2274 144 >CY180770,A/duck/Minnesota/3/1975,1975//,USA,H3N8,Avian,2
334 76 2274 145 >CY180786,A/duck/Minnesota/12/1975,1975//,USA,H3N8,Avian,2
338 77 2274 121 >CY181255,A/mallard/Wisconsin/13/1974,1974//,USA,H6N8,Avian,2
338 77 2274 180 >CY177542,A/duck/Minnesota/23/1975,1975//,USA,mixed,Avian,2
...
405 41 1011 183 >GU053161,A/duck/Victoria/9003-09-1400/1976,1976//,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
426 97 2274 182 >CY061608,A/duck/Victoria/1976,1976//,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
430 98 2274 126 >CY045261,A/shearwater/Australia/751/1975,1975//,Australia,H5N3,Avian,2
430 98 2274 299 >CY024792,A/chicken/Victoria/1976,1976/01/,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
430 98 2274 300 >CY005744,A/duck/New Zealand/164/76,1976/01/01,New Zealand,H11N3,Avian,2
----------segment 4-------------
260 43 1653 150 >M16739,A/duck/33/1980,1980//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
270 46 1701 67 >AB292410,A/duck/Hong Kong/22A/1976,1976//,Hong Kong,H3N3,Avian,4
282 48 1701 68 >AB292660,A/duck/Hong Kong/22B/1976,1976//,Hong Kong,H3N6,Avian,4
284 47 1653 220 >M16743,A/duck/10/1985,1985//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
308 51 1653 93 >M16737,A/duck/5/1977,1977//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
317 54 1701 94 >AB277754,A/duck/Hokkaido/5/1977,1977//,Japan,H3N2,Avian,4
326 54 1653 219 >M16742,A/duck/9/1985,1985//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
335 57 1701 221 >AB276113,A/duck/Hokkaido/10/1985,1985//,Japan,H3N8,Avian,4
340 58 1701 147 >AB292402,A/duck/Hong Kong/836/1980,1980//,Hong Kong,H3N1,Avian,4
354 35 987 92 >D21171,A/duck/Hong Kong/245/1977,1977//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,4
358 61 1701 105 >AB829334,A/chicken/Hong Kong/37/1978,1978//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,4
393 67 1701 40 >CY014702,A/duck/Chabarovsk/1610/1972 ,1972//,Russia,H3N8,Avian,4
I compare this with the reaction of the American press to ebola, which IMO was a non-event in USA.
This new H5N8 virus gives America a new, entirely different reservoir of influenza viruses to select
from for reassortment with human or swine viruses.
The last time that this happened was in the ~1950s and two pandemics followed
that picked new avian segments (2,4,6) in 1957 and (2,4) in 1968 for reassortment
with circulating human viruses.
While diversity in segments 4,6 is already big in the wild bird's population,
diversity in segment 2 isn't. Nor is it in 1,3,5,7 and 2 types in 8.
Well, this reassortment could also (more likely) happen in Asia, they already
had the viruses and even the domestic ducks as mixing vessel.
But now we (we=mankind) get the American types of HAs and NAs that
weren't available before. Plus the 17g types, and the American H5N2 poultry viruses.
H5N8 currently doesn't infect humans, at least we have seen no cases so far.
But we know, how quickly that can change, when it keeps reassorting.
Fouchier,Kawaoka, etc. may soon show how few mutations are needed
or what other reassortments may achieve likely transmission in humans.
H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 happened in Asia, but some of the segments are
closer to American avian viruses:
>A/Index/1957(H2N2)
----------segment 2-------------
466 106 2274 46 >CY014669,A/turkey/Wisconsin/1/1966,1966//,USA,H9N2,Avian,2
488 111 2274 30 >GU052881,A/turkey/Canada/1963,1963//,Canada,H6N8,Avian,2
510 116 2274 26 >GU052524,A/chicken/Scotland/1959,1959//,United Kingdom,H5N1,Avian,2
510 116 2274 31 >CY130020,A/duck/Ukraine/1/1963,1963//,Ukraine,H3N8,Avian,2
540 123 2274 17 >CY130028,A/duck/Czechoslovakia/1956,1956//,Czech Republic,H4N6,Avian,2
----------segment 4-------------
578 7 121 134 >CY077449,A/mallard/New Zealand/449-94/2004,2004//,New Zealand,H2N3,Avian,4
680 115 1689 491 >L11129,A/duck/Germany/1972,1972//,Germany,H2N9,Avian,4
698 118 1689 86 >CY014710,A/duck/Germany/1215/1973,1973//,Germany,H2N3,Avian,4
----------segment 6-------------
638 90 1410 3 >AY968677,A/turkey/Canada/63,1963//,Canada,H6N2,Avian,6
638 90 1410 25 >GU052550,A/turkey/England/N28/1973,1973//,United Kingdom,H5N2,Avian,6
652 92 1410 1137 >AY724264,A/chicken/Hebei/1/2002,2002//,China,H7N2,Avian,6
673 95 1410 31 >CY005554,A/duck/Hong Kong/7/1975,1975//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,6
702 99 1410 15 >EU182282,A/turkey/Wisconsin/1966,1966//,USA,H9N2,Avian,6
>A/Beijing/1/1968(H3N2)
----------segment 2-------------
314 12 381 167 >CY177572,A/duck/Minnesota/51/1975,1975//,USA,H6N2,Avian,2
321 73 2274 119 >CY181335,A/mallard/Wisconsin/23/1974,1974//,USA,H6N2,Avian,2
325 74 2274 87 >DQ870886,A/turkey/Oregon/1971,1971//,USA,H7N3,Avian,2
329 75 2274 186 >GU186638,A/duck/Alberta/35/1976,1976//,Canada,H1N1,Avian,2
334 76 2274 144 >CY180770,A/duck/Minnesota/3/1975,1975//,USA,H3N8,Avian,2
334 76 2274 145 >CY180786,A/duck/Minnesota/12/1975,1975//,USA,H3N8,Avian,2
338 77 2274 121 >CY181255,A/mallard/Wisconsin/13/1974,1974//,USA,H6N8,Avian,2
338 77 2274 180 >CY177542,A/duck/Minnesota/23/1975,1975//,USA,mixed,Avian,2
...
405 41 1011 183 >GU053161,A/duck/Victoria/9003-09-1400/1976,1976//,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
426 97 2274 182 >CY061608,A/duck/Victoria/1976,1976//,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
430 98 2274 126 >CY045261,A/shearwater/Australia/751/1975,1975//,Australia,H5N3,Avian,2
430 98 2274 299 >CY024792,A/chicken/Victoria/1976,1976/01/,Australia,H7N7,Avian,2
430 98 2274 300 >CY005744,A/duck/New Zealand/164/76,1976/01/01,New Zealand,H11N3,Avian,2
----------segment 4-------------
260 43 1653 150 >M16739,A/duck/33/1980,1980//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
270 46 1701 67 >AB292410,A/duck/Hong Kong/22A/1976,1976//,Hong Kong,H3N3,Avian,4
282 48 1701 68 >AB292660,A/duck/Hong Kong/22B/1976,1976//,Hong Kong,H3N6,Avian,4
284 47 1653 220 >M16743,A/duck/10/1985,1985//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
308 51 1653 93 >M16737,A/duck/5/1977,1977//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
317 54 1701 94 >AB277754,A/duck/Hokkaido/5/1977,1977//,Japan,H3N2,Avian,4
326 54 1653 219 >M16742,A/duck/9/1985,1985//,Japan,H3,Avian,4
335 57 1701 221 >AB276113,A/duck/Hokkaido/10/1985,1985//,Japan,H3N8,Avian,4
340 58 1701 147 >AB292402,A/duck/Hong Kong/836/1980,1980//,Hong Kong,H3N1,Avian,4
354 35 987 92 >D21171,A/duck/Hong Kong/245/1977,1977//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,4
358 61 1701 105 >AB829334,A/chicken/Hong Kong/37/1978,1978//,Hong Kong,H3N2,Avian,4
393 67 1701 40 >CY014702,A/duck/Chabarovsk/1610/1972 ,1972//,Russia,H3N8,Avian,4
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