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B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant on way dominate cases in GTA by end of February: Public Health Ontario study

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  • B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant on way dominate cases in GTA by end of February: Public Health Ontario study

    Source: https://www.cp24.com/news/b-1-1-7-co...tudy-1.5318042


    B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant on way dominate cases in GTA by end of February: Public Health Ontario study
    Chris Herhalt, Web Content Writer, CP24
    Published Sunday, February 21, 2021 1:25PM EST

    A study of select COVID-19 cases in the GTA found the highly infectious B.1.1.7 variant accelerated its spread “10-fold” during the month of January and is well on its way to dominate all known positive samples in the region before the end of February.

    Four Public Health Ontario doctors observed more than 11,400 positive COVID-19 specimens collected by Dynacare Laboratories from areas including Etobicoke, Markham, Maple and Brampton between Dec. 15, 2020 and Feb. 3, 2021.

    They looked for the absence of a specific spike protein in each virus sample that signifies mutations often associated with variants of concern, known as the S-Gene drop or S-Gene Target Failure (SGTF).

    They found 448 specimens that displayed SGTF, or 3.9 per cent of all samples.

    Fifty-nine of those samples were then run through complete Whole Genomic Sequencing (WGS), with six samples collected in Dec. 2020 and the rest from Jan. 2021.

    Two of the six Dec. 2020 samples analyzed were confirmed to be the B.1.1.7 coronavirus variant, while 51 of the 53 samples from Jan. 2021 came back positive, indicating that S-Gene Target failure is an extremely reliable predictor of the presence of a variant of concern.

    By the start of February, the study found that 15 per cent of all positive samples passing through Dynacare laboratories in the GTA were coming back with S-Gene Target Failure, representing a “10-fold monthly increase” that could mean the B.1.1.7 and other variants could become dominant in the GTA before the end of the month.

    “This detection of a sample’s gene target failure – this is a pretty reliable way of knowing whether you've got something problematic or not,”one of the study’s authors, Dr. Kevin Brown, told CP24.

    Previous modelling by provincial experts have warned that should the B.1.1.7 variant become dominant, Ontario would see severe spikes in COVID-19 cases, requiring deep and frustrating public health restrictions in order to curb.

    There are nearly 400 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant now confirmed in the province through whole genomic sequencing, with several hundred more “highly probable” cases awaiting complete confirmation...
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