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Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

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  • Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

    hat tip Kobie -

    I count 9 total cases and 6 deaths year-to-date.



    Blame ducks for bird flu?
    'Silent infections' of H5N1 in ducks may be the reason behind the human cases in China. -Reuters

    Thu, Feb 26, 2009
    Reuters
    HONG KONG, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A leading virologist said on Thursday that ducks are to blame for the resurgence of the H5N1 bird flu virus in China and Vietnam, and called for wider surveillance and vaccination of ducks to stop the problem.

    The virus has infected at least 14 people in both countries since the start of this year, killing seven of them.

    Experts said what was mystifying about the latest round of outbreaks was the absence of the disease in poultry in China despite the human infections. H5N1 is passed primarily from animal to human.

    Robert Webster, a leading H5N1 expert, told a medical conference in Hong Kong that 'silent infections' of H5N1 in ducks may be the reason behind the human cases in China.

    Most types of ducks are not sickened by the virus and in most countries in Asia, they mingle freely with chickens, providing ample opportunity for the virus to jump between species.

    'The problem is in the ducks in Asia, there is no visible disease in these birds,' said Webster of the St Jude Children's Research Hospital in the United States.

    The absence of visible infection in poultry makes it harder to track the disease and take preventive measures.

    'In China, there is no disease (in poultry) ... I suspect there are some viruses in duck populations that they (authorities) don't know about ... Maybe there are silent infections, it's a vast country.'

    Webster said it was very difficult to get farmers to vaccinate their apparently healthy ducks, especially when these exercises cost a lot of money.

    'In Vietnam, the problem is again the duck because ... if you were a farmer and there is no disease on your farm, why do you want vaccines? Really it comes down to where the silent infections are,' he told a small group of reporters later.

    'Farmers only respond to problems and if there is no problem, why spend the money? That's why we can't get rid of the virus.'

    Since 2003, the H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected 408 people in 15 countries and killed 254 of them. It has killed or forced the culling of more than 300 million birds as it spread to 61 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

    While H5N1 rarely infects people, experts fear it could mutate into a form that people could easily pass to one another, sparking a pandemic that could kill tens of millions and topple the global economy.

    Webster called for better disease surveillance and culling where the virus is detected.

    'You have to do massive surveillance, it will be very expensive, and compensation for farmers (in places where the H5N1 virus is detected), where there is no disease, that is difficult,' he said.



  • #2
    Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

    Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
    hat tip Kobie -

    I count 9 total cases and 6 deaths year-to-date.



    Blame ducks for bird flu?
    'Silent infections' of H5N1 in ducks may be the reason behind the human cases in China. -Reuters

    Thu, Feb 26, 2009
    Reuters
    HONG KONG, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A leading virologist said on Thursday that ducks are to blame for the resurgence of the H5N1 bird flu virus in China and Vietnam, and called for wider surveillance and vaccination of ducks to stop the problem.

    The virus has infected at least 14 people in both countries since the start of this year, killing seven of them.

    Experts said what was mystifying about the latest round of outbreaks was the absence of the disease in poultry in China despite the human infections. H5N1 is passed primarily from animal to human.

    Robert Webster, a leading H5N1 expert, told a medical conference in Hong Kong that 'silent infections' of H5N1 in ducks may be the reason behind the human cases in China.

    Most types of ducks are not sickened by the virus and in most countries in Asia, they mingle freely with chickens, providing ample opportunity for the virus to jump between species.

    'The problem is in the ducks in Asia, there is no visible disease in these birds,' said Webster of the St Jude Children's Research Hospital in the United States.

    The absence of visible infection in poultry makes it harder to track the disease and take preventive measures.

    'In China, there is no disease (in poultry) ... I suspect there are some viruses in duck populations that they (authorities) don't know about ... Maybe there are silent infections, it's a vast country.'

    Webster said it was very difficult to get farmers to vaccinate their apparently healthy ducks, especially when these exercises cost a lot of money.

    'In Vietnam, the problem is again the duck because ... if you were a farmer and there is no disease on your farm, why do you want vaccines? Really it comes down to where the silent infections are,' he told a small group of reporters later.

    'Farmers only respond to problems and if there is no problem, why spend the money? That's why we can't get rid of the virus.'

    Since 2003, the H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected 408 people in 15 countries and killed 254 of them. It has killed or forced the culling of more than 300 million birds as it spread to 61 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

    While H5N1 rarely infects people, experts fear it could mutate into a form that people could easily pass to one another, sparking a pandemic that could kill tens of millions and topple the global economy.

    Webster called for better disease surveillance and culling where the virus is detected.

    'You have to do massive surveillance, it will be very expensive, and compensation for farmers (in places where the H5N1 virus is detected), where there is no disease, that is difficult,' he said.


    http://health.asiaone.com/Health/New...26-124821.html
    I believe there are 8 confirmed cases in China (including the Beijing case that was infected in 2008 and died in 2009) as well as 3 in Vietnam. However, almost anyone paying attention would assume that the sister (13F) of the 8 year old in Vietnam and the mother of the 2 year old in Hunan/Shanxi,China died of bird flu. In addition the nurse linked to the Beijing case "recovered" from bird flu symptoms, as did the neighbor of the 8 year old in Vietnam.

    The "questionable" part is the "official" WHO numbers, which have been nonsense since then beginning of 2004.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

      Originally posted by niman View Post
      I believe there are 8 confirmed cases in China (including the Beijing case that was infected in 2008 and died in 2009) as well as 3 in Vietnam. . .
      As noted by Niman, WHO has only confirmed 11 cases that either died, were infect, or were hospitalized in 2009 in Vietnam and China.

      <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1" cellspacing="0"><caption>
      </caption> <thead> <tr> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Country</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">City and Region</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Name</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Sex</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Age</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Symptom onset</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Death</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Chaoyang District, Beijing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Huang Yanqing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">19</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">12/24/2008</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/5/2008</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Điền Trung, B? Thước district, Thanh Hoa</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Bui Thi Thao (B?i Thị Thảo)</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">8</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">12/27/2008</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
      </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Jinan City, Shandong Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhang Xue</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">27</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/5/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/17/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Changsha, Hunan Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Peng 彭某</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/7/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
      </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Wu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">16</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/8/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/20/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Urumqi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhang</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">31</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/10/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/23/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Yunyan District of Guiyang City, Guizhou Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhou</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">29</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/15/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
      </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Beiliu City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Liang Xing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">18</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/19/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/26/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Xupu County, Hunan Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Shu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">21</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/23/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
      </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Na, An Quang commune, Đầm H? district, Quang Ninh Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Ly Tai Mui</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">23</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/28/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2/21/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Kim Son District, Ninh Binh Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Cu Van Chieu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">32</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2/5/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
      </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot></tfoot> </table>
      http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

        Originally posted by Laidback Al View Post
        As noted by Niman, WHO has only confirmed 11 cases that either died, were infect, or were hospitalized in 2009 in Vietnam and China.

        <table bgcolor="#ffffff" border="1" cellspacing="0"><caption>
        </caption> <thead> <tr> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Country</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">City and Region</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Name</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Sex</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Age</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Symptom onset</th> <th bordercolor="#000000" bgcolor="#c0c0c0">Death</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Chaoyang District, Beijing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Huang Yanqing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">19</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">12/24/2008</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/5/2008</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Điền Trung, B&#225; Thước district, Thanh Hoa</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Bui Thi Thao (B&#249;i Thị Thảo)</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">8</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">12/27/2008</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
        </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Jinan City, Shandong Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhang Xue</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">27</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/5/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/17/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Changsha, Hunan Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Peng 彭某</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/7/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
        </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Wu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">16</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/8/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/20/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Urumqi, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhang</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">31</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/10/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/23/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Yunyan District of Guiyang City, Guizhou Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Zhou</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">29</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/15/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
        </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Beiliu City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Liang Xing</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">18</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/19/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/26/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">China</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Xupu County, Hunan Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Shu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">21</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/23/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
        </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Na, An Quang commune, Đầm H&#224; district, Quang Ninh Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Ly Tai Mui</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">F</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">23</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">1/28/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2/21/2009</td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Vietnam</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Kim Son District, Ninh Binh Province</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">Cu Van Chieu</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0">M</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">32</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">2/5/2009</td> <td bordercolor="#c0c0c0" align="right">
        </td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot></tfoot> </table>
        Yes, to reach 14 infected you would take the eleven above and add the sister (13F) of 8F from Thanh Hoa, the mother of the 2F from Hunan, and either the recovered nurse linked to the 19F in Beijing or the hospitalized (pneumonia) 5M neighbor of 8F from Thanh Hoa.

        To get to "at least" seven deaths you would take the 6 confirmed deaths and add the mother of the 2F and the sister of the 8F described above.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

          Part of the problem is the accounting of disease "onset" from 1 calendar year to the next.

          Also, there is a discrepancy in the Indonesian human case numbers that are suspected/actual announced by the local hospital/public health officials, the Indonesian Ministry of Health, and WHO.


          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

            Originally posted by Florida1 View Post
            Part of the problem is the accounting of disease "onset" from 1 calendar year to the next.

            Also, there is a discrepancy in the Indonesian human case numbers that are suspected/actual, announced by the local hospital/public health officials, the Indonesian Ministry of Health, and WHO.


            I don't think the Reuters interviewer was looking to split hairs on patients that had disease onset dates at the end of December and were hospitalized in early 2009 (and died or were discharged in 2009).

            The official case count is far more "questionable" than the article, which was quite straight forward (and the addition of "questionable" in the title is VERY questionable).

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Questionable Reuter's Report on Total Human Infections YTD in China and Vietnam?

              My title is an upgrade from the original one -


              "Blame ducks for bird flu?"

              Comment

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