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  • Acute illness in Ivory Coast

    UN OCHA: Health authorities in Cote d'Ivoire are investigating an acute illness in a northern village that claimed the lives of 31 people and sickened at least 73 others. People began to fall ill in the village of Diobala in the third week of December with symptoms including headache, high fever, neck and chest pain, and respiratory problems, according to a report by the Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene obtained by IRIN. The illness progressed rapidly over the course of three to five days and the first death was reported on 18 December, the report said. Villagers delayed reporting the illnesses to health authorities until 5 February. By then, 31 people had died among the 104 who had fallen ill, the report said. Victims in the village of 1,500 included men and women, young and old. "Almost every family was touched" in the village, an official with the Seguela health department told IRIN. Seguela, 44km away, is the largest town near Diobala. Seguela is 450km north of the main city, Abidjan. Local health authorities reported the deaths to officials in Abidjan and investigators went to Diobala. The team included specialists from the Pasteur Institute and the Ministry of Health and Public Hygiene.

    They discovered that beginning in October animals in the village had begun falling ill. The report said 90 percent of the village's poultry, as well as about 500 goats and sheep, had died. Villagers consumed sick animals, but it was not immediately clear if this was how humans contracted the illness. Health authorities said patients treated with antibiotics responded well. "They did an investigation and took blood samples and nasal swabs of the people, the poultry, the goats and the sheep," the Seguela health official said. Water samples were also taken. "Surveillance is continuing to see if other cases come up," he said. The last cases of human illness were reported on 14 February. There have been no reports of illness in neighbouring villages. People in the area have been told to quickly report any illnesses to local health authorities. Cote d'Ivoire has been divided between a rebel-held north and government-run south since a brief civil war in 2002. As a result, humanitarian agencies say health and sanitary conditions in the north have deteriorated.


  • #2
    Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

    This is bad...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

      Originally posted by Sharpe View Post
      This is bad...
      Not that bad, yet not good, either.

      -- It started the third week of December, that's 8 weeks ago.
      -- It responded to antibiotics.
      --There haven't been any recent illnesses or deaths in the last 2 or 3 weeks.
      -- No trensmission to neighboring villages (known).
      --checking Google Earth, it isn't near a wetlands.

      So if it was IT, it burst and died out in the 3rd or 4th generation. Yet there are still lots of things it could have been besides IT.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

        Should it turn out to be have been bird flu, it will at least tell us what the virus is capable of at this point--killing 30+% of infected people of all ages from mid-December to mid-February, and killing sheep, goats, and poultry. There may well have been hundreds of transmissions between various species of animals and between people--we only know about the sheep and goats, but cats and dogs are well-known to be affected by bird flu too. This infection cycle may also have been going on for 5 or more months, since they say that animals started dying in October.

        Originally posted by wetDirt View Post
        Not that bad, yet not good, either.

        -- It started the third week of December, that's 8 weeks ago.
        -- It responded to antibiotics.
        --There haven't been any recent illnesses or deaths in the last 2 or 3 weeks.
        -- No trensmission to neighboring villages (known).


        So if it was IT, it burst and died out in the 3rd or 4th generation. Yet there are still lots of things it could have been besides IT.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

          Originally posted by wetDirt View Post
          Not that bad, yet not good, either.

          -- It started the third week of December, that's 8 weeks ago.
          -- It responded to antibiotics.
          --There haven't been any recent illnesses or deaths in the last 2 or 3 weeks.
          -- No trensmission to neighboring villages (known).
          --checking Google Earth, it isn't near a wetlands.

          So if it was IT, it burst and died out in the 3rd or 4th generation. Yet there are still lots of things it could have been besides IT.
          This points out the fact that the only clear measure of a pandemic will be geometrically expanding cases over time. We just won't have much time once we recognize the increasing case load. The only thing we can do now is look back several weeks in retrospect and say "it hasn't started yet". Not very comforting.
          http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

            <table summary=""><tbody><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Archive Number</td> <td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">20070228.0719</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Published Date</td> <td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">28-FEB-2007</td></tr><tr><td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">Subject</td> <td colspan="1" rowspan="1" align="left" nowrap="nowrap">PRO/AH/EDR> Undiagnosed deaths, human, livestock - Cote d'Ivoire: RFI</td></tr> </tbody></table>

            UNDIAGNOSED DEATHS, HUMAN, LIVESTOCK - COTE D'IVOIRE: REQUEST FOR INFORMATION
            ************************************************** **
            A ProMED-mail post
            <http://www.promedmail.org>
            ProMED-mail is a program of the
            International Society for Infectious Diseases
            <http://www.isid.org>

            Date: Tue 27 Feb 2007
            From: Naomi Bryant <naomi.bryant@uclh.nhs.uk>
            Source: All Africa / UN Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)
            [edited]
            <http://allafrica.com/stories/200702270341.html>


            Health authorities in Cote d'Ivoire are investigating an acute illness in a
            northern village that has claimed the lives of 31 people and sickened at
            least 73 others.

            People began to fall ill in the village of Diobala in the 3rd week of
            December [2006], with symptoms including headache, high fever, neck and
            chest pain, and respiratory problems, according to a report by the Ministry
            of Health and Public Hygiene obtained by IRIN [UN Integrated Regional
            Information Networks.] The illness progressed rapidly over the course of 3
            to 5 days and the 1st death was reported on [18 Dec 2006], the report said.

            Villagers delayed reporting the illnesses to health authorities until [5
            Feb 2007]. By then, 31 people had died among the 104 who had fallen ill,
            the report said. Victims in the village of 1500 included men and women,
            young and old.

            "Almost every family was touched" in the village, an official with the
            Seguela health department told IRIN. Seguela, 44 km. [27 miles] away, is
            the largest town near Diobala. Seguela is 450 km. [280 miles] north of the
            main city, Abidjan.

            Local health authorities reported the deaths to officials in Abidjan and
            investigators went to Diobala [13-17 Feb 2007]. The team included
            specialists from the Pasteur Institute and the Ministry of Health and
            Public Hygiene.

            They discovered that beginning in October [2006] animals in the village had
            begun falling ill. The report said 90 per cent of the village's poultry, as
            well as about 500 goats and sheep, had died. Villagers ate sick animals,
            but it was not immediately clear if this was how humans contracted the
            illness. Health authorities said patients treated with antibiotics
            responded well.

            "They did an investigation and took blood samples and nasal swabs of the
            people, the poultry, the goats and the sheep," the Seguela health official
            said. Water samples were also taken. "Surveillance is continuing to see if
            other cases come up," he said.

            The last cases of human illness were reported on [14 Feb 2007]. There have
            been no reports of illness in neighbouring villages. People in the area
            have been told to quickly report any illnesses to local health authorities.

            Cote d'Ivoire has been divided between a rebel-held north and
            government-run south since a brief civil war in 2002. As a result,
            humanitarian agencies say health and sanitary conditions in the north have
            deteriorated.

            --
            Naomi Bryant
            Information Officer
            National Travel Health Network and Centre (NaTHNaC)
            <naomi.bryant@uclh.nhs.uk>
            <www.nathnac.org>

            [Given the above description of a livestock die-off (including poultry,
            sheep, and goats) preceding morbidity and mortality of the human
            population, one automatically thinks of zoonotic diseases that might be
            consistent with this picture. Adding to the picture is a reported case
            fatality rate (CFR) of 30 per cent (31/104), with an estimated attack rate
            of 7 per cent (104/1500) with all age groups affected. When one checks
            GIDEON (Global Infectious Disease and Epidemiology Network
            <http://www.gideononline.net>) for the clinical picture associated with
            contact with animals, one gets 3 main possibilities -- Q fever, ornithosis,
            and bunyaviridae. Of the bunyaviridae family, one does think of Rift Valley
            fever (RVF) as consistent with this clinical picture, but the involvement
            of poultry rules this out, as the RVF virus does not affect avians. Gideon
            also gives a "1st case scenario", where it "ignores" the geographic
            location of the outbreak in the event that this is a new geographic
            extension of an otherwise known pathogen. In this case, the GIDEON program
            suggested Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever (CCHF).

            The above report mentions individuals improving with antibiotics. This
            suggests a clinical diagnosis of a bacterial disease, such as Q fever, but
            the reported CFR in this outbreak is way above that seen with Q fever (Q
            fever has a 1-2 per cent mortality associated with untreated cases).

            If one decides that the animal outbreak information is a red herring, and
            repeats the GIDEON search omitting an ongoing epizootic, the following
            comes up as most likely candidates: Leptospirosis, Q fever, legionellosis,
            Ebola, Lassa fever, ornithosis, and brucellosis to mention a few -- and
            when one looks at the "1st case scenario" plague is on the list.

            Anthrax is not on the list provided by GIDEON, but it too could possibly
            meet the clinical definition, although one might expect to hear of more
            gastrointestinal symptoms.

            This moderator has now "mused out loud" probably more than would have been
            prudent, so at this point appeals to sources knowledgeable on the findings
            of the investigation to enlighten and educate us on what has been going on.
            - Mod.MPP]

            ..................mpp/mj/sh

            </www.nathnac.org>http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed..._ID:1000,36499
            "In the beginning of change, the patriot is a scarce man (or woman https://flutrackers.com/forum/core/i...ilies/wink.png), and brave, and hated and scorned. When his cause succeeds, the timid join him, for it then costs nothing to be a patriot."- Mark TwainReason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it. -Thomas Paine

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

              COTE D IVOIRE: Ivorians feel economic impact of avian flu

              ABIDJAN, 28 February (IRIN) - Although only two outbreaks of avian influenza among poultry have been reported in C?te d'Ivoire, and no human deaths, the illness has taken a significant financial and humanitarian toll.

              The H5N1 virus has resulted in a loss of more US$20 million to traditional and industrial poultry producers as demand has dropped, according to a recent study on the impact of avian influenza on the country's economy.

              Poultry processing plants have suffered the biggest losses, said the study requested by the government's Commission for the Fight Against Avian Influenza. A two-day workshop in Abidjan last week examined the impact of avian flu and discussed ways to offset losses, including compensation, to the country's poultry industry.

              "Each hatchery has lost on average nearly US$7 million each month since the discovery of the two cases of the H5N1 virus in 2006 in the country," the study said. The first case of avian flu was reported last April in C?te d'Ivoire and a mass culling of poultry followed.

              Isac Kouam? Adi, director general of Coco Service, which specialises in the production of fresh eggs, said his company has suffered the consequences of avian flu.

              "We have seen a drop in consumption," he said. "But I think that consumers should not worry. We have taken all sanitary precautions to assure safe consumption."

              The government report said poultry importers had lost some $4.5 million while the producers of poultry products were down about $4.2 million dollars. Egg wholesalers individually lost on average $156,000.

              The consumption of poultry and poultry products has dropped by about 51 percent, according to the report.

              "Today it's risky to eat chicken," said student Olivier Kacou. "Personally, I decided with some friends to no longer eat poultry since the appearance of the H5N1 virus. I think that other hygiene measures should be taken to truly offer reassurance."

              Because of the drop in demand for poultry and poultry products, 450 farm laborers have lost their jobs and another 15,000 risk being out of work.

              "Today, 53 percent of the poultry retailers and 71 percent of the wholesalers have partially abandoned their activities," the study said.

              "The situation is worrying," said Alphonse Douaty, minister of Animal Production and Marine Resources. "But it is necessary to think about preserving what is there and to try to inspire consumer confidence."

              C?te d'Ivoire stepped up its surveillance of avian flu after the death of a woman in Nigeria from the virus in February. It was the first human death of H5N1 in sub-Saharan Africa.

              The Ivorian government formed its central avian flu committee last April. Another outbreak at a poultry farm outside of Abidjan occurred in November.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

                I'm surprised that they waited almost 2 months before reporting this.
                "We are in this breathing space before it happens. We do not know how long that breathing space is going to be. But, if we are not all organizing ourselves to get ready and to take action to prepare for a pandemic, then we are squandering an opportunity for our human security"- Dr. David Nabarro

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

                  This is what the start of a pandemic will look like, and this is how the news will reach us from Africa. I doubt this is H5N1 (though anyone who is reassured by the fact that antibiotics have helped must bear in mind that pneumonia is a secondary opportunistic bacterial infection that kills a lot of flu victims).

                  But note how long this news took to reach us, know that H5N1 is endemic in these highly stressed nation-societies, and consider that whatever is taking place in Africa is thoroughly beyond the control of the WHO.

                  THIS is why Nabarro et al are convinced that, once H5N1 reached Africa, the odds of escaping a pandemic plummeted. I'm with them on that.

                  Whole families could be dying from H5N1 at this moment in Africa and we wouldn't hear a thing until it begins to transmit to whole villages. By which time people who read Flu Trackers will go into intelligent panic mode and our friends will begin to ask decent questions while we pack.

                  Nothing to look forward to. Perhaps we'll just be (happy go) lucky.

                  Be well,
                  DA

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Acute illness in Ivory Coast

                    We have a lead here at Flu Trackers. Many of the African countries are former France or Belgium colony and some news gets into the African French media.

                    On the Ivory Coast strange disease for instance we have in French one to two day leads from French speaking African countries,

                    Usually for our French forums it is the opposite, we have the news in French one to two days late.

                    At least we have some leads there.

                    For instance yesterday was available in french some details concerning Ivory Coast and with Babelfish and my limited english it was not so bad translated yesterday.

                    This news should be available in english today but we had it yesterday.

                    Comment

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