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While plague in Madagascar has been recognised as endemic for more than two decades [1-3], the country has experienced the largest ever observed epidemic of pneumonic plague in 2017 through human-to-human transmission [4]. As of 31 October 2017, the cumulative total numbers of 1,838 cases and 64 deaths have been reported [5]. To guide risk assessment, it is vital to quantitatively characterise the risks of secondary transmission, fatal outcome given infection and exporting the disease from Madagascar to elsewhere. We statistically estimate these risks by analysing the epidemiological data in real time.
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In conclusion, the transmission potential of pneumonic plague in Madagascar 2017 is not different from those in earlier pneumonic plague epidemics. The low CFR is potentially indicative of successful treatment outcome, and the risk of international spread is very limited.
full article
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In conclusion, the transmission potential of pneumonic plague in Madagascar 2017 is not different from those in earlier pneumonic plague epidemics. The low CFR is potentially indicative of successful treatment outcome, and the risk of international spread is very limited.
full article
