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Covid-19 may have already infected 20 million in South Africa, says Prof Madhi
By Estelle Ellis• 14 September 2020
Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University Professor Shabir Madhi, left, and Maverick Citizen editor Mark Heywood. (Photos: supplied | Leila Dougan) Less
Up to 40% of people living in SA’s densely populated areas had probably been infected by the coronavirus, vaccinologist and member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee, Professor Shabir Madhi, said during a Daily Maverick webinar on Sunday.
Between 35% and 40% of people living in densely populated areas in South Africa had probably been infected with the coronavirus, the latest figures available for the Western Cape and Gauteng show.
The number of people who were infected was way above the confirmed figure of 650,000; “it is more in the region of 15 million to 20 million”, Madhi said. “Nobody could have predicted what would happen in South Africa.”
Madhi said that initial infection models estimated that about 25% of the population would be infected. He said the high prevalence of infections did not, however, translate into high rates of hospitalisations and deaths.
About half of the confirmed number of cases in SA had been confirmed by private sector laboratories, but the private sector does not look after 50% of the country’s population. He added that the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic also didn’t get tested.
“The numbers [35% to 40%] are based on antibody testing,” he said.
He added that at the peak of the outbreak the country was reporting about 14,000 cases a day, but the new models show that there were between 60,000 and 80,000 new cases a day.
“While the number of deaths is probably an underestimate… we haven’t seen the infection rate translate into hospitalisation and deaths. It did not transpire to the extent that modellers predicted.”
He said that using the Western Cape as a benchmark, while there had been about 15,000 confirmed deaths caused by Covid-19 in South Africa, the actual number was likely to be about 30,000.
“Not everyone who has died has been tested for Covid-19. We must appreciate that there had been many deaths outside of hospitals. If we use the Western Cape as a benchmark and use the same adjustment – we think roughly 30,000 rather than 15,000.”...
Covid-19 may have already infected 20 million in South Africa, says Prof Madhi
By Estelle Ellis• 14 September 2020
Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University Professor Shabir Madhi, left, and Maverick Citizen editor Mark Heywood. (Photos: supplied | Leila Dougan) Less
Up to 40% of people living in SA’s densely populated areas had probably been infected by the coronavirus, vaccinologist and member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee, Professor Shabir Madhi, said during a Daily Maverick webinar on Sunday.
Between 35% and 40% of people living in densely populated areas in South Africa had probably been infected with the coronavirus, the latest figures available for the Western Cape and Gauteng show.
The number of people who were infected was way above the confirmed figure of 650,000; “it is more in the region of 15 million to 20 million”, Madhi said. “Nobody could have predicted what would happen in South Africa.”
Madhi said that initial infection models estimated that about 25% of the population would be infected. He said the high prevalence of infections did not, however, translate into high rates of hospitalisations and deaths.
About half of the confirmed number of cases in SA had been confirmed by private sector laboratories, but the private sector does not look after 50% of the country’s population. He added that the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic also didn’t get tested.
“The numbers [35% to 40%] are based on antibody testing,” he said.
He added that at the peak of the outbreak the country was reporting about 14,000 cases a day, but the new models show that there were between 60,000 and 80,000 new cases a day.
“While the number of deaths is probably an underestimate… we haven’t seen the infection rate translate into hospitalisation and deaths. It did not transpire to the extent that modellers predicted.”
He said that using the Western Cape as a benchmark, while there had been about 15,000 confirmed deaths caused by Covid-19 in South Africa, the actual number was likely to be about 30,000.
“Not everyone who has died has been tested for Covid-19. We must appreciate that there had been many deaths outside of hospitals. If we use the Western Cape as a benchmark and use the same adjustment – we think roughly 30,000 rather than 15,000.”...