China - Original COVID-19 coronavirus news thread: weeks 1 - 4 (December 30, 2019 - January 25, 2020)

[Pathfinder]

Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee's report on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection

Issuing authority: Wuhan City health committee | Published: 2020-01-16 23:55:45 |

At 04:00 on January 15, 2020, there were no new cases of pneumonia infected with new coronavirus in our city, 5 cases were discharged from hospital, and 1 new death case. The deceased Xiong Moumou, male, 69 years old, became ill on December 31, 2019, became worse on January 4, 2020, and was transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment. He was admitted with severe myocarditis (myocardial enzymes reached 20 times normal, Electrocardiographic abnormalities); abnormal renal function; severe damage to multiple organ functions; chest CT showed pulmonary fibrous lesions and pleural effusion and pleural thickening. Considering tuberculosis and pleural tuberculosis, died at 00:45 on January 15 due to ineffective rescue .

As of now, the city has reported a total of 41 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection, 12 cases have been cured and discharged, 5 cases are being treated in severe cases, and 2 cases have died. A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 644 medical observations have been lifted, and 119 medical observations are still underway. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.

January 16, 2020

http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/showDetail/2020011609057

[Shiloh]

Source: http://news.workercn.cn/32843/202001...02852116.shtml

Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Commission notified pneumonia of new coronavirus infection (Figure)
2020-01-17 00:29:18 China News Network


China News Service, Wuhan, January 17th: The Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee issued a circular on the evening of the 16th: At 04:00 on January 15, 2020, there were no new cases of pneumonia infected by the new coronavirus in the city. Five patients were discharged from the hospital. One death case was added.

The briefing introduced that the deceased Xiong Moumou, male, 69 years old, became ill on December 31, 2019, and became worse on January 4, 2020, and was transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment. He was admitted with severe myocarditis (myocardial enzymes reached normal values) 20 times, abnormal electrocardiogram); abnormal renal function; severely impaired multi-organ function; chest CT showed pulmonary fibrous lesions and pleural effusion and pleural thickening. Rescued to death.

According to reports, up to now, Wuhan has reported a total of 41 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection, 12 have been discharged from hospital, 5 cases are being treated in severe cases, and 2 cases have died. The remaining patients are in stable condition. Isolation treatment. A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 644 medical observations have been lifted, and 119 medical observations are still underway. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.

[sharon sanders]

Hey! To Apple Daily - How about you drop the paywall for public health situations?


Yuan Guoyong: There may be more than one source of communication
4 hours ago

snip

Yuan Guoyong, Chair Professor of the Department of Microbiology, HKU believes that the situation shows that the virus is spreading in Wuhan. Source or more than one.

snip

Xu Shuchang, director of the Department of Internal Medicine and Pharmacology of CUHK, pointed out that Japanese patients developed symptoms on January 3 and said that they had never been to South China Seafood City.
In addition, 30% of cases in Thailand and Wuhan have not been to South China Seafood City. There may be viruses in different markets in the city, which can be infectious. Xu believes that the source of the virus spread in Wuhan has not been fully identified, and Japan and Thailand have successively introduced cases, showing that the overall epidemic in Wuhan has not come to an end.

Xu Shuchang pointed out that the current evidence shows that the new type of coronavirus is a limited human-to-human transmission, and it is expected that there will be cases of transmission in Hong Kong.

One of the current priorities is to prevent the virus from outbreaking in public hospitals.

more...


https://hk.appledaily.com/local/2020...7LB32IW4VRMOE/

[Pathfinder]

German Researchers Develop 1st Test for New Virus From China


Dr. Christian Drosten, the director of the Institute for Virology at Berlin's Charite hospital, said the test developed by his team will allow labs to reliably diagnose the so-called novel coronavirus "in a very short period of time.”
The test protocol is being made available through the World Health Organization, and laboratories can order a molecule from the German team to compare patient samples with a positive control, he said.

"We have just started receiving orders and are now starting to post the molecule,” Drosten told The Associated Press.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/202...sultPosition=4

Translation Google
Corona viruses (colored transmission electron micrograph). Photo: Dr. Fred Murphy & Sylvia Whitfield / CDC

press release


01/16/2020 First test for the novel corona virus developed in China



Joint press release by the Charit? and the DZIF

A team of the German Center for Infection Research (DZIF) at the Charit? - Universit?tsmedizin Berlin has developed a detection method for the corona virus, which is currently circulating in China. The WHO has now published the test protocol as the first diagnostic guide to date. Suspected cases can now be quickly checked for the virus.

The corona virus, which has occurred in the Chinese metropolis of Wuhan and caused severe pneumonia, can now be detected in the laboratory. The working group around Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten, Director of the Virology Institute at the Charit? Campus Mitte, has developed and made available the world's first diagnostic test as part of her work at the DZIF. The WHO has published the test protocol online as the first guide for laboratories. An international consortium is currently conducting an introductory test of the test.

"I am assuming that the wide availability of the diagnostic test will soon help clarify suspicious cases and determine whether it is possible to transmit the new virus from person to person," explains Prof. Drosten. "This is an important step in combating the new virus."



Background
Under the direction of Prof. Drosten, scientists have already been able to develop novel Zika virus tests and the standard test used worldwide to detect the MERS pathogen ("Middle East Respiratory Syndrome"). The BIH -Professor has co-discovered the SARS virus ( "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome") in 2003 and made the first diagnostic test available for this pandemic virus. As part of the DZIF working group "Virus Detection and Pandemic Prevention", the scientists at the Charit? will continue to prepare for emerging viruses in the coming years.

https://www.charite.de/service/press...na_entwickelt/

[Treyfish]

Govt widens net for possible Wuhan virus infections


2020-01-16 HKT 20:17


Hong Kong health authorities on Thursday widened the criteria for private doctors to report patients who may have been infected with a newly-identified virus from Wuhan, after Japan confirmed that a man was infected with the novel coronavirus following a trip to the central mainland city.

Japan's health ministry said the patient, in his thirties, did not go to a seafood market there thought to be the epicentre of the outbreak.

But the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) in Hong Kong said according to information from their Japanese counterparts, he had “contact with a pneumonia patient while he was in Wuhan.”

The patient was hospitalised on January 10, four days after his return to Japan, with a persistent fever.

Tests on the patient, who was released from hospital on Wednesday, confirmed he was infected with the new virus.

The CHP said in light of the new information, doctors will be asked notify health authorities of any patients who have fever and respiratory symptoms if they have been to any mainland hospital, or had close contact with anyone confirmed to be infected with the novel coronavirus

Previously, they only had to refer sick people who had been to Wuhan...https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...abChangeable=0


----------------------------------------

Here is the CHP link that supports this article:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...999#post822999

[Treyfish]

Wuhan in all-out effort to curb outbreak of virus

China Daily |
Updated: 2020-01-17 04:21
Authorities in Wuhan, Hubei province, have intensified efforts to prevent the spread of a virus that has caused a pneumonia outbreak in the city, resulting in one death so far.

Outside China, a second case linked to the virus has been reported in Japan, following a case in Thailand.

All outbound travelers from Terminal 3 of Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, a major airport in Central China, have had to receive temperature tests before boarding flights since Wednesday, and those displaying fever symptoms are quarantined, the airport authority said on Thursday.

The airport authority said it had requested airlines to cooperate with affected travelers in refunding or changing tickets for free.

At Wuhan Railway Station, employees told China Daily on Thursday that they had received notification from the authorities to start checking travelers' temperatures.

In the waiting room of Wuchang Railway Station, another major railway station in the city, medical services were provided to passengers in need on Thursday...https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/2020...217271876.html


-------------------------------------------------

This article is slightly incorrect. There are 2 deaths now. link

[alert]

It appears Thailand has imported a second case. I can't get this to translate cleanly:

https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/137232/

[tetano]

h/t alert

Ministry of Public Health receives 2 tourists from Wuhan for pneumonia at Bamrasnaradura Institute.




Ministry of Public Health Screening for travelers from Wuhan City People's Republic of China Patients found confirmed coronary pneumonia from the second strain of the 2019 strain, which is currently under medical supervision at Bamrasnaradura Institute. Waiting for the results of repeated lab tests. There has been no outbreak of a new strain of the corona virus in Thailand.

Today (17 January 2020) at the Department of Disease Control Ministry of Public Health Nonthaburi Province Dr. Sukhum Kanchanapimai, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Public Health, together with Dr. Suwanchai Wattana Yingcharoenchai Director-General of the Department of Disease Control Announcing the situation of people suffering from pneumonia from Wuhan, China, said the Ministry of Public Health. The Department of Disease Control has screened travelers at the airport on January 13, 2020, with 1 additional confirmed case of coronary pneumonia from 2019 which is a Chinese female aged 74 years. At Bamrasnaradu Institute Under medical supervision Clinical improvement Which if the result from the laboratory does not detect a virus The doctor will allow you to go home. Is the second in Thailand. In which the two parties are not related

Dr. Sukhum continued that Ministry of Public Health Have carried out surveillance and disease control according to the standard system used for emerging communicable diseases By screening passengers flying directly from Wuhan, China, at 4 airports, including Suvarnabhumi, Don Mueang, Chiang Mai and Phuket from 3 - 16 January 2020, a total of 86 flights, 13,624 passengers and crew were screened. Most of the 21 patients who were eligible for the investigation were infected with the influenza virus. 12 patients were treated and returned home. Two new strains of patients suffering from pneumonia from the corona virus were still in treatment room for negative pressure disease. Bamrasnaradura Institute

https://pr.moph.go.th/?url=pr/detail/2/04/137232/

[tetano]

Thailand reports second Chinese woman infected with Wuhan coronavirus

Thailand detected a second visitor from China infected with a coronavirus, identified in Wuhan, in Hubei province of China, health officials said.

This came hours after China reported a second death, an elderly man, from the dangerous disease.

In Thailand, the 74-year-old Chinese woman is being treated at hospital after presenting with symptoms at the capital's airport, Suvarnabhumi on January 13, according to the health ministry.

Tests showed that a 74-year-old woman, quarantined since arriving in Thailand on Monday was infected, health permanent secretary Sukhum Karnchanapimai said today, the Bangkok Post reports.
She was diagnosed with pneumonia linked to the new coronavirus, which has stirred alarm after killing two in China and hospitalising dozens. It has also
been detected in Japan.

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/6/140336/Thailand-reports-second-Chinese-woman-infected-with-Wuhan-coronavirus

[tetano]

Third suspected Wuhan virus case detected in Singapore: elderly man isolated

A 69-year-old man who travelled to Wuhan has been diagnosed with pneumonia, said the Ministry of Health (MOH) on Thursday evening (Jan 16).

“He has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, and isolated as a precautionary measure,” a ministry spokesman said. “His condition is stable.”

The man, a Singaporean, had not visited the seafood wholesale market in Huanan, from where the new bug is thought to have emerged. Investigations are ongoing to establish whether his illness is linked to the Wuhan disease cluster.



The man is the third person in Singapore to be suspected of having the Wuhan virus. The first two were a three-year-old girl and a 26-year-old man, both of whom were Chinese nationals. They had visited Wuhan – the capital of central China’s Hubei province – but subsequently were tested negative for the virus.

https://www.businessinsider.sg/third-suspected-wuhan-virus-case-detected-in-singapore-elderly-man-isolated/

[sharon sanders]

Third suspected Wuhan virus case detected in Singapore: elderly man isolated

A 69-year-old man who travelled to Wuhan has been diagnosed with pneumonia, said the Ministry of Health (MOH) on Thursday evening (Jan 16).

“He has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, and isolated as a precautionary measure,” a ministry spokesman said. “His condition is stable.”

The man, a Singaporean, had not visited the seafood wholesale market in Huanan, from where the new bug is thought to have emerged. Investigations are ongoing to establish whether his illness is linked to the Wuhan disease cluster.



The man is the third person in Singapore to be suspected of having the Wuhan virus. The first two were a three-year-old girl and a 26-year-old man, both of whom were Chinese nationals. They had visited Wuhan – the capital of central China’s Hubei province – but subsequently were tested negative for the virus.


https://www.businessinsider.sg/third...-man-isolated/

Government report -

16TH JAN 2020

As of 10am, 16 January 2020, the Ministry of Health has been notified of a 69 year-old male Singaporean with pneumonia, who had travel history to Wuhan. He has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, and isolated as a precautionary measure. His condition is stable.


The suspect case had not visited the Huanan seafood wholesale market associated with the cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan.


Investigations to establish whether the suspect case is linked to the Wuhan pneumonia cluster are ongoing.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/update-on-local-situation-regarding-severe-pneumonia-cluster-in-wuhan-16-jan

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/s...200117-1022005
Live Report Singapore Live
Two more suspicious cases of pneumonia in Wuhan appear locally
Text / Wei Yuchen
Posted / January 17, 2020 8:26 PM
Update / January 17, 2020 8:32 PM

(Morning News) Two more suspicious cases of pneumonia in Wuhan appeared in the local area today. Both have visited Wuhan, China, including a Chinese man and a local resident.

The Ministry of Health issued a statement tonight (17th) saying that as of 2 pm today, the Ministry of Health had received two more reports of suspected cases. One of the patients was a 64-year-old Chinese man and the other was a 61-year-old female local resident.

The statement pointed out that both had been to Wuhan, but had not been to the South China Seafood Market, which was suspected to be the source of the pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan. To ensure public safety, the patient has been quarantined and is being hospitalized for examination and treatment. His condition is stable.

On the other hand, a 69-year-old local man who was reported to be infected yesterday was found to have nothing to do with Wuhan pneumonia after investigation.

[sharon sanders]

From: "Media@cdc.gov (CDC)" <sohco@CDC.GOV>
To: MMWR-MEDIA@LISTSERV.CDC.GOV
Subject: UPDATED: Media Advisory: CDC Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Date: Jan 17, 2020 9:31 AM

Media Advisory

For Immediate Release
Friday, January 17, 2020

Contact: CDC Media Relations
(404) 639-3286

CDC Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

What The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will provide an update on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus and proactive actions CDC is taking to be prepared.

Who Nancy Messonnier, MD, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

Martin Cetron, MD, Director, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine

When Friday, January 17, at 1:00 p.m. ET

Dial-In
Media: 888-946-7204
Non-Media: 888-603-9752
INTERNATIONAL: 1-773-756-4803
PASSCODE: redacted

Important Instructions
If you would like to ask a question during the call, press *1 on your touchtone phone. Press *2 to withdraw your question. You may queue up at any time. You will hear a tone to indicate your question is pending.

TRANSCRIPT
A transcript will be available following the briefing at CDC’s web site: www.cdc.gov/media.

[tetano]

CHP provides latest information on pneumonia cases of novel coronavirus infection in Wuhan
************************************************** *******************


The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health (DH) last night (January 16) received notification from the National Health Commission (NHC) on the latest information on the pneumonia cases of novel coronavirus infection detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The public is again urged to maintain strict personal, food and environmental hygiene both locally and during travel.

According to the information from the NHC, as of yesterday, one additional death of the novel coronavirus infection in Wuhan was recorded. The patient, a 69-year-old male, developed symptoms on December 31 last year. His condition deteriorated on January 4 this year and he passed away on January 15.

As of yesterday, the total number of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan remained at 41 cases. Among them, 12 patients have been discharged, five patients are in serious condition and two died, while the remaining patients are in stable condition. A total of 763 close contacts have been identified. All have been put under medical surveillance with 644 of them having completed the surveillance, and no related cases have been detected so far.

A dedicated webpage (www.chp.gov.hk/en/features/102465.html) has been set up by the CHP to provide relevant information and health advice. To address the public's concern, the CHP will announce the details of cases fulfilling the reporting criteria (www.chp.gov.hk/files/pdf/enhanced_sur_pneumonia_wuhan_eng.pdf) on the above webpage daily to enhance transparency.

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202001/17/P2020011700759.htm

[Michael Coston]

Imperial College London: Estimating Number Of Coronavirus Cases In Wuhan, China






#14,668

Whenever we see an outbreak of an infectious disease, the reported number of cases is always assumed to be a subset of the actual number of cases in a community. Over the years we've looked at dozens of attempts to estimate the true burden of these outbreaks, including:

CDC Updates Estimates Of Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths From H1N1

CID Journal: Estimates Of Human Infection From H3N2v (Jul 2011-Apr 2012).

BMC: Estimating The Transmission Potential Of H7N9

EID Journal: Estimation of Severe MERS Cases in the Middle East, 2012–2016

In every one of these studies, the actual number of cases was estimated to be anywhere from 10 to more than 100 times greater than what was being picked up by early surveillance.

In 2015, when Saudi Arabia had recorded fewer than 1200 MERS cases, a seroprevalence study (see Presence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus antibodies in Saudi Arabia: a nationwide, cross-sectional, serological study by Drosten & Memish et al.,) suggested nearly 45,000 might have been infected.

Earlier today the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London tweeted a link to aa fast-tracked analysis of the likely spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City, China.

First, this summary from their twitter feed (tweets combined).

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis

@MRC_Outbreak ?1h

Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel #coronavirus estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases.

@imperialcollege @mrc_outbreaks report released today
https://imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

Summary of report (tweet 2 of 4)

We calculate, based on flight and population data, that there is only a 1 in 574 chance that a person infected in Wuhan would travel overseas before they sought medical care.

Summary of report (tweet 3 of 4)
This implies there might have been over 1700 (3 x 574) cases in Wuhan so far. There are many unknowns, meaning the uncertainty range around this estimate goes from 190 cases to over 4000.

Summary of report (tweet 4 of 4)
But the magnitude of these numbers suggests that substantial human to human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.

Some excerpts from the analysis (caution, higher maths ahead). Follow the link to read it in its entirety:

Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China

Natsuko Imai, Ilaria Dorigatti, Anne Cori, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling

MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK

Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
V2 (updated to include second Thai case)

Background

On the 31st December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) related to the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome virus and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus has since been implicated [2].

As of 16th January 2020, 41 cases (including two deaths [3]) have been confirmed in Wuhan City with three confirmed cases in travellers detected in Thailand (2 cases) and Japan (1 case) [4–7]. Most cases have been epidemiologically linked to exposure at a seafood market in Wuhan which has been closed since 1 January 2020 in efforts to contain the outbreak. Although both travellers have a history of travel to Wuhan City, they did not visit the seafood market implicated in the other cases [2].

Using the number of cases detected outside China, it is possible (see Methods) to infer the number of clinically comparable cases within Wuhan City that may have occurred thus far.

Summary

We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) had onset of symptoms by 12th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case).
This estimate is based on the following assumptions:

• Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].

• There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].

• Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.

Caveats

• We assume that outbound trip durations are long enough that an infected Wuhan resident travelling internationally will develop symptoms and be detected overseas, rather than being detected after returning to Wuhan. We also do not account for the fact that international visitors to Wuhan (such as the case who was detected in Japan) might be expected to have a shorter duration of exposure and thus a lower infection risk than residents. Accounting for either factor correctly requires additional data but would increase our estimate of the total number of cases.

• We estimate the potential number of symptomatic cases with disease severity of a level requiring hospitalisation (both the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were moderately severe). Our estimates do not include cases with mild or no symptoms.

• The incubation period of 2019-nCov is not known and has been approximated with the estimates obtained for MERS-CoV and SARS [8,9].

• We assume that international travel is independent of the risk of exposure to 2019n-CoV or of infection status. If zoonotic exposure was biased towards wealthier people, travel frequency may be correlated with exposure. Also, some travel might be causally linked to infection status (to seek healthcare overseas) or the infection status of contacts in Wuhan (this may apply to the case detected in Japan) [10]. Accounting for either association would increase the probability of a case travelling and therefore reduce our estimates of the total number of cases.

(Continue . . . )

Just as with estimated number of MERS-CoV and H7N9 cases, the higher estimated numbers don't necessarily presage a pandemic. But it does remind us that with any surveillance system, we are almost always just looking at the tip of the pyramid.

Credit CDC

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/...stimating.html