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China - Original 2019-nCov news thread: weeks 1 - 4 (December 30, 2019 - January 25, 2020)

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  • Source: http://www.kaixian.tv/gd/2020/0122/253853.html

    Foshan diagnoses first case of new coronavirus pneumonia
    2020-01-22 19:37:14 Source: Southern Metropolis Daily

    (Original title: The first case of new coronavirus pneumonia was confirmed in Foshan. The patient is a 40-year-old man and is now in stable condition.)

    On January 22, the Provincial Health and Health Commission confirmed the first confirmed case of pneumonia in a new coronavirus infection in Foshan.

    The patient was a male, 40 years old, and now lives in Foshan. The patient developed symptoms of dizziness and cough on January 10, and went to the First People's Hospital of Foshan for treatment on January 20 and was isolated for treatment. On January 21, the new CDV-positive nucleic acid was tested by the Provincial CDC. Combined with epidemiological investigation, clinical symptoms, and laboratory test results, confirmed cases of pneumonia confirmed by new coronavirus infection. At present, the hospital is organizing all-out treatment, and the patient's condition is stable...

    Comment


    • Download report 2 (pdf)Download report 1 (pdf)

      22 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌ Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China

      Natsuko Imai, Ilaria Dorigatti, Anne Cori, Christl Donnelly, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson
      WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
      MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK

      Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk

      Background
      On the 31st December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) related to the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome virus (MERS-CoV) and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus (SARS-CoV) has since been implicated [2].

      As of 4am 21st January (Beijing Time) 2020, 440 cases (including nine deaths) have been confirmed across 13 provinces in China, plus suspected cases in multiple other provinces [3]. As of 9:00 GMT 22nd January 7 confirmed cases in travellers from Wuhan with symptom onset on or before the 18th January were detected outside mainland China in Thailand (3 cases), Japan (1 case), South Korea (1 case), Taiwan (1 case) and the United States (1 case) [4–10]. Chinese authorities have also confirmed evidence of human-to-human transmission, as well as 15 cases in healthcare workers [11,12]. Of these cases, four travelled before exit screening in Wuhan International Airport was introduced on 15th January [13], three (South Korea, Taiwan, USA) on or after.

      Using the number of cases detected outside mainland China with who had disease onset by 18th January, it is possible (see Report 1 [14]) to infer the number of clinically comparable cases within Wuhan City that may have occurred thus far. Here we update our estimates to account for the additional international exported cases (7 cases).

      Summary
      We estimate that a total of 4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (uncertainty range: 1,000 – 9,700) had onset of symptoms by 18th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case) [15].

      Our estimates should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size in the period 12th January to 18th January – delays in confirming and reporting exported cases and incomplete information about dates of symptom onset together with the still very small numbers of exported cases mean we are unable to estimate the epidemic growth rate at the current time.

      This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
      • Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
      • There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [16,17] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,18].
      • Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [19], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College London to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
      • Exit screening (which reportedly came into force on the 15th January [13]) had no impact on exported cases reported up to 16th January. Exit screening may have reduced exports in recent days, in which case our baseline prediction may be an underestimate of the true number of cases in Wuhan.
      • We assume all cases in travellers flying to destinations outside mainland China are being detected at those destinations. This may well not be the case. If cases are being missed in other countries, our baseline prediction will underestimate the true number of cases in Wuhan.
      • We now report uncertainty as the range spanned by the 95% confidence intervals of the first three scenarios in Table 1. Thus, our uncertainty range represents uncertainty in key assumptions as well as statistical assumptions.

      Additional caveats
      1. We assume that outbound trip durations are long enough that an infected Wuhan resident travelling internationally will develop symptoms and be detected overseas, rather than being detected after returning to Wuhan. We also do not account for the fact that international visitors to Wuhan (such as the case who was detected in Japan) might be expected to have a shorter duration of exposure and thus a lower infection risk than residents. Accounting for either factor correctly requires additional data but would increase our estimate of the total number of cases.
      2. We estimate the potential number of symptomatic cases with disease severity of a level requiring hospitalisation (both the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were moderately severe). Our estimates do not include cases with mild or no symptoms.
      3. The incubation period of 2019-nCov is not known and has been approximated with the estimates obtained for MERS-CoV and SARS [16,17].
      4. We assume that international travel is independent of the risk of exposure to 2019n-CoV and of infection status. If zoonotic exposure were biased towards wealthier people, travel frequency may be correlated with exposure. Also, some travel might be causally linked to infection status (to seek healthcare overseas) or the infection status of contacts in Wuhan (this may apply to the case detected in Japan) [18]. Accounting for either association would increase the probability of a case travelling and therefore reduce our estimates of the total number of cases.
      ...
      https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-globa...n-coronavirus/
      Twitter: @RonanKelly13
      The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

      Comment


      • According to the People's Daily Weibo news, as of 19:20 on January 22, 473 cases of pneumonia with new-type coronavirus infection nationwide were diagnosed.

        http://news.china.com.cn/2020-01/22/...t_75641172.htm

        Comment


        • Source: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/sh.../2020012109085

          Wuhan Municipal Commission of Health and Health on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection
          Published by: Wuhan Municipal Health Commission | Published: 2020-01-21 17:39:17 | Hits: 37323 |
          From 00:00 on January 20, 2020 to 24:00 on January 20, there were 60 new cases, 2 deaths, and no discharged patients.

          The city continued to increase the collection and testing of samples, and immediately collected the collected patient samples from hospitals and sent them to the Provincial Center for Disease Control for new coronavirus detection. The expert group made comprehensive investigations based on clinical manifestations, epidemiological history, and pathogenic test results, and newly confirmed 60 cases of pneumonia confirmed by new coronavirus infection.

          Of the 60 patients, 33 were male and 27 were female; the youngest was 15 years old and the oldest was 88 years old; the onset dates were before January 18, 2020; the first symptoms were mostly fever, cough or chest tightness, and dyspnea. Among the patients, 17 were critically ill and 3 were critically ill. Epidemiological investigations of new cases are underway, and close contacts are being tracked.

          The deceased Li Moumou, male, 66 years old, was admitted to the hospital for "intermittent cough, headache, fatigue and fever for 6 days" on January 16, 2020; dyspnea occurred on January 17, and multiple organs appeared at 10:35 on January 20 Functional failure, rescue ineffective death. The deceased had basic diseases such as COPD, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and chronic renal insufficiency.

          The deceased Yin Moumou, female, 48 years old, became ill on December 10, 2019, developed dyspnea on December 27, and was transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for treatment on December 31. She had severe respiratory distress upon admission, January 20, 2020 At 14:31, multiple organ failure occurred, and the rescue died. The deceased had basic diseases such as diabetes, cerebral infarction and gallstones during his lifetime.

          As of 24:00 on January 20, 258 cases of pneumonia of new coronavirus infection have been reported in our city, 25 cases have been cured and 6 cases have died. Currently, 227 patients are still being treated in the hospital, of which 51 cases are critically ill and 12 cases are critically ill. They are all under isolation treatment at designated medical institutions in Wuhan. A total of 988 close contacts have been tracked, 739 have been released from medical observation, and 249 are still receiving medical observation.

          We will continue to conduct timely sampling and detection of newly discovered suspected cases.




          January 21, 2020.

          Comment


          • Source: http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/01/22/678113.html

            google translation;

            2020-01-22 20:49:00 Beijing News Reporter: Zhang Jingye Editor: Bai Ye

            Suspected case of a new type of coronavirus is being treated in Nanjing, and close contacts are being investigated

            Beijing News (Reporter Zhang Jingyi) This afternoon (January 22), a reporter from the Beijing News obtained a consultation notice issued by the Management Committee of Jiangbei New District, Nanjing, which requested the Jiangbei New District Construction and Transportation Bureau, Yangzi State-owned Assets Group Assist in investigating personal information in close contact with a suspected case of pneumonia associated with a new coronavirus. Tonight, a reporter from the Beijing News confirmed the authenticity of the online notification from the Jiangbei New District Management Committee. Staff said that the suspected case has not yet been diagnosed, but has been isolated for observation. As of 20:00 today, no contact has been found with the patient. Disease symptoms...

            ...The above notice stated that the Jiangbei New District of Nanjing was informed by the CDC that a suspected case of new type of coronavirus pneumonia was admitted to the Nanjing Public Health Center. The patient is an employee of a company in Nanjing and has a history of travel in Wuhan. He has been living in Huangshi for a long time. On January 18, he took the G678 high-speed train (Wuhan to Shanghai Hongqiao) and returned to Nanjing. In the afternoon of that day, he took Nanjing Metro Line 2 and Line 3 and Bus 692 twice. On the 19th, he took buses 637, 692 and 558 respectively...

            Comment


            • Source: http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/01/22/678115.html

              2020-01-22 20:53:39 Beijing News reporter: Li Yukun editor: Chen Si

              Hong Kong announces trips for highly suspected infection with new coronavirus

              On January 21st, take the high-speed rail G1015 to Shenzhen North, seat No. 3 car 10D; in the evening, take G5607 to Hong Kong West Kowloon Station, seat No. 2 car 2D.

              On the evening of January 22, a press conference was held in Hong Kong to introduce the first case of highly suspected new coronavirus infection in Hong Kong. Photo by Beijing News reporter Li Yukun

              The Beijing News (Reporter Li Yukun) On the evening of January 22, a press conference was held in Hong Kong. Professor Chen Zhaoshi, director of the Hong Kong Food and Health Bureau, and others introduced the first case of highly suspected new coronavirus infection found in Hong Kong.

              According to the data of the Center for Health Protection, the patient was 39 years old and a tourist from Wuhan arrived in Hong Kong. On January 21, 2020, he took the G1015 high-speed rail from Wuhan to Shenzhen North, seat No. 10D; took the G5607 high-speed rail to Hong Kong West Kowloon Station at night, 7: Departure 35, seat 2D 2D.

              The patient lives in Wuhan, has not been to a seafood market, a medical institution, has not been in contact with pneumonia, and has not been exposed to wildlife.

              The patient had fever and cough symptoms at the time and was discovered by quarantine staff. The four other family members who arrived with the patient in Hong Kong did not show symptoms. Last night they stayed at the Royal Hyatt Hotel in Tsim Sha Tsui. Today they took flight 5J111 of Cebu Air and left Hong Kong to Manila, Philippines. The Director of Health, Chen Hanyi, said that there is no data on hotel floor room numbers.

              The patient is currently in stable condition and the HA has arranged isolation treatment. The patient had a fever and upper respiratory tract illness last night, and the condition has been stable. Today, he has been arranged for inspection at the Infectious Diseases Centre of Princess Margaret Hospital.

              The Hong Kong Department of Health has set up a hotline, calling on those who are travelling on high-speed rail to call 21251122. The front and back lines are close contacts and need to be sent to isolation camps. Those who are not in close contact with the carriages will undergo medical surveillance.

              Beijing News reporter Li Yukun

              Edit Chen Si

              Comment


              • Source: http://nd.fjsen.com/2020-01/22/content_30143076.htm

                One patient with new type of coronavirus infection was admitted to Ningde Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital
                nd.fjsen.com 2020-01-22 20:52:06 Ye Fuguo Source: Southeast Network Let me say a few words

                Southeast Net, January 22 (Reporter Ye Fuguo) A WeChat chat group reported that Ningde Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital admitted 1 case of patients with new type of coronavirus infection pneumonia. On the afternoon of the 22nd, Southeast Net reporter learned from the official WeChat of Ningde Traditional Chinese Medicine The news was a rumor...
                ...
                On January 22, the official Weifang of Ningde Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued a statement that the news was not true. The hospital stated in a statement that on January 22, there was a rumor on the Internet that a patient with a new type of coronavirus infection was admitted to the Ningde Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, which is not true...

                Comment


                • Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/22/...ding-in-china/
                  The basics: What we know — and don’t know — about the virus spreading in China and beyond
                  By Andrew Joseph and Helen Branswell
                  January 22, 2020

                  It’s been only three weeks since Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization that it had an outbreak of unusual pneumonia cases. An astonishing amount of information has been learned in the days since about the outbreak, caused by a new virus that jumped from animals into people. But a frustrating amount of information remains still beyond our grasp.

                  Scientists and public health officials in China and beyond are scrambling to try to learn more about the virus, which has already spread out from the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the outbreak appears to have started, to other parts of China and several other countries, including the United States.

                  We all have more questions than answers. But here’s some of what we’ve learned about this new disease threat...

                  Comment


                  • Source: http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/01/22/678127.html
                    2020-01-22 21:21:54 Beijing News

                    Google translation (snip)


                    A confirmed case of pneumonia of imported new coronavirus confirmed in Weihai, Shandong

                    Beijing News Express According to the official WeChat message from the Shandong Provincial Health and Health Committee, on January 22, Weihai City, Shandong Province confirmed a confirmed case of pneumonia due to imported new coronavirus infection.



                    The patient was a 38-year-old male who worked in Zhoushan City, Zhejiang Province. He had close contact with confirmed patients with pneumonia infected by a new coronavirus. He visited relatives in Rushan City, Weihai on January 18, and was admitted to the hospital on January 20 due to fever. Isolation treatment...
                    Up to now, 2 confirmed cases have been found in Shandong Province. The patient's condition is stable and there are no critical cases.




                    Comment


                    • Hong Kong train station disinfection commenced.
                      https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...3-20200122.htm

                      The new high-speed rail terminus in Hong Kong is being disinfected following the arrival of a person from Wuhan who was showing symptoms of the virus. A confirmed Wuhan virus traveler was later diagnosed but it is unclear at this time whether this is the same person.


                      Hong Kong activates two holding camps for possible quarantine use.
                      https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/compone...6-20200122.htm

                      (The Hong Kong government operates a number of 'holiday camps' for recreational purposes throughout the year which are being repurposed as quarantine facilities if needed)

                      Comment


                      • Risk of mutations in new coronavirus. BGI sends ultra-high-throughput sequencer to Wuhan for monitoring

                        Huada Group said that the new coronavirus may mutate during transmission and affect the sensitivity of RT-PCR detection. The use of high-sensitivity PMseq-RNA detection on ultra-high-throughput sequencers can make up for the shortcomings of RT-PCR and effectively improve Positive rate and can monitor for possible variation. At the same time, the detection strategy of PMseq's wide coverage can effectively provide more information about the pathogens of infection.

                        To this end, on January 21, Huada Group deployed the second Huada Intelligent Manufacturing (Subsidiary of Huada Group) ultra-high-throughput sequencer DNBSEQ-T7 in Wuhan Huada.

                        It is understood that the T7 Ultra-high-throughput sequencer equipped with MGIFLP, a one-stop sequencing station, is equipped with an automatic detection system for unknown pathogens, which can realize real-time sequencing. It can simultaneously complete 128 samples of SE50 screening and sequencing within 5 hours. 22 PE100 high-throughput pathogen determination and possible mutation and evolutionary monitoring in 128 samples were completed in an hour.

                        Huada Group said that the use of T7 provided a strong technical support for the scientific clinical prevention and control of the Wuhan epidemic and the formulation of prevention and control strategies for the public health system.

                        Prior to January 14, Shenzhen Huada Yinyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly known as the Infection Prevention and Control Division), a subsidiary of the listed company Huada Gene (300676, SZ) (a subsidiary of the Huada Group) (hereinafter referred to as Huada) Yin Yuan) announced that it has completed the development of the finished products of the 2019 new coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit (RT-PCR fluorescent probe method). The new coronavirus nucleic acid detection kit can be used for rapid identification and identification of suspected patients, and assist disease control departments and medical institutions to take timely and effective prevention and control measures.

                        http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2020-01-22/1402285.html

                        Comment


                        • Second case of coronavirus discovered in Hong Kong, hours after the first.

                          https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...rmed-hong-kong

                          In addition Macau has had their first confirmed case.

                          https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news...inhua-12300678

                          Comment


                          • Imperial College updates their statistical model given new data and now estimates as many as 4,000 people could be infected. Earlier in the week they put the number at 1,700.

                            https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ated-heathrow/

                            Comment


                            • In a press conference it was announced that the cases in Hubei have jumped to 444, including 17 deaths. Beijing News is administrated by the China Communist Party. It is - in effect - an official government media.


                              Newly added 69 cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei, with 17 deaths


                              The Beijing News (Reporter Xu Wen) Hubei Province held a press conference on January 22 to inform the province of the prevention and control of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection. As of 20:00 on January 22, Hubei Province had reported a total of 444 cases of pneumonia and 17 deaths. Between January 22 and 0200 on January 22, 69 cases of pneumonia of new coronavirus infection were added in Hubei Province.




                              Beijing News reporter Xu Wen

                              Edited by Liu Mengjie


                              http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/01/22/678165.html

                              Comment


                              • Source: http://www.ce.cn/xwzx/gnsz/gdxw/2020...34179217.shtml

                                Google translation:

                                New coronavirus-infected pneumonia has killed 17 people in Hubei


                                Xinhua News Agency, Wuhan, January 22 (Reporters Wang Xian and Li Changzheng) As of 20:00 on the 22nd, Hubei has reported a total of 444 new pneumonia cases with new coronavirus infection, with 69 new cases. Among them, there were 62 new cases in Wuhan, 8 deaths, and a total of 17 deaths; 6 new cases in Jingzhou, and 1 new case in Jingmen.

                                This was disclosed by Hubei Deputy Governor Yang Yunyan at the Hubei Provincial Government's first press conference on the prevention and control of pneumococcal infections of the new type.

                                Yang Yunyan said that out of 28 cases of pneumonitis infected with new coronavirus that have been diagnosed in Hubei Province, 28 cases have been cured and discharged, and 399 cases are still being treated in the hospital, 71 cases are critically ill and 24 cases are critically ill. . A total of 2,556 close contacts have been tracked, 863 people have been released from medical observation, and 1693 people are still receiving medical observation.

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