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China - Original 2019-nCov news thread: weeks 1 - 4 (December 30, 2019 - January 25, 2020)

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  • Imperial College London: Estimating Number Of Coronavirus Cases In Wuhan, China






    #14,668

    Whenever we see an outbreak of an infectious disease, the reported number of cases is always assumed to be a subset of the actual number of cases in a community. Over the years we've looked at dozens of attempts to estimate the true burden of these outbreaks, including: In every one of these studies, the actual number of cases was estimated to be anywhere from 10 to more than 100 times greater than what was being picked up by early surveillance.

    In 2015, when Saudi Arabia had recorded fewer than 1200 MERS cases, a seroprevalence study (see Presence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus antibodies in Saudi Arabia: a nationwide, cross-sectional, serological study by Drosten & Memish et al.,) suggested nearly 45,000 might have been infected.

    Earlier today the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London tweeted a link to aa fast-tracked analysis of the likely spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan City, China.

    First, this summary from their twitter feed (tweets combined).
    Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel #coronavirus estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases.
    Summary of report (tweet 2 of 4)
    We calculate, based on flight and population data, that there is only a 1 in 574 chance that a person infected in Wuhan would travel overseas before they sought medical care.
    Summary of report (tweet 3 of 4)
    This implies there might have been over 1700 (3 x 574) cases in Wuhan so far. There are many unknowns, meaning the uncertainty range around this estimate goes from 190 cases to over 4000.

    Summary of report (tweet 4 of 4)
    But the magnitude of these numbers suggests that substantial human to human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.

    Some excerpts from the analysis (caution, higher maths ahead). Follow the link to read it in its entirety:
    Natsuko Imai, Ilaria Dorigatti, Anne Cori, Steven Riley, Neil M. Ferguson
    WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling
    MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, UK
    Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk
    V2 (updated to include second Thai case)

    Background
    On the 31st December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. A novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) related to the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome virus and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus has since been implicated [2].
    As of 16th January 2020, 41 cases (including two deaths [3]) have been confirmed in Wuhan City with three confirmed cases in travellers detected in Thailand (2 cases) and Japan (1 case) [4–7]. Most cases have been epidemiologically linked to exposure at a seafood market in Wuhan which has been closed since 1 January 2020 in efforts to contain the outbreak. Although both travellers have a history of travel to Wuhan City, they did not visit the seafood market implicated in the other cases [2].
    Using the number of cases detected outside China, it is possible (see Methods) to infer the number of clinically comparable cases within Wuhan City that may have occurred thus far.
    Summary
    We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (95% CI: 427 – 4,471) had onset of symptoms by 12th January 2020 (the last reported onset date of any case).
    This estimate is based on the following assumptions:
    • Wuhan International Airport has a catchment population of 19 million individuals [1].
    • There is a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection, comprising a 5-6 day incubation period [8,9] and a 4-5 day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalisation of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalised 3 and 7 days after onset, respectively) [4,10].
    • Total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months has been 3,301 passengers per day. This estimate is derived from the 3,418 foreign passengers per day in the top 20 country destinations based on 2018 IATA data [11], and uses 2016 IATA data held by Imperial College to correct for the travel surge at Chinese New Year present in the latter data (which has not happened yet this year) and for travel to countries outside the top 20 destination list.
    Caveats
    • We assume that outbound trip durations are long enough that an infected Wuhan resident travelling internationally will develop symptoms and be detected overseas, rather than being detected after returning to Wuhan. We also do not account for the fact that international visitors to Wuhan (such as the case who was detected in Japan) might be expected to have a shorter duration of exposure and thus a lower infection risk than residents. Accounting for either factor correctly requires additional data but would increase our estimate of the total number of cases.
    • We estimate the potential number of symptomatic cases with disease severity of a level requiring hospitalisation (both the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were moderately severe). Our estimates do not include cases with mild or no symptoms.
    • The incubation period of 2019-nCov is not known and has been approximated with the estimates obtained for MERS-CoV and SARS [8,9].
    • We assume that international travel is independent of the risk of exposure to 2019n-CoV or of infection status. If zoonotic exposure was biased towards wealthier people, travel frequency may be correlated with exposure. Also, some travel might be causally linked to infection status (to seek healthcare overseas) or the infection status of contacts in Wuhan (this may apply to the case detected in Japan) [10]. Accounting for either association would increase the probability of a case travelling and therefore reduce our estimates of the total number of cases.

    Just as with estimated number of MERS-CoV and H7N9 cases, the higher estimated numbers don't necessarily presage a pandemic. But it does remind us that with any surveillance system, we are almost always just looking at the tip of the pyramid.
    Credit CDC
    https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2020/...stimating.html
    All medical discussions are for educational purposes. I am not a doctor, just a retired paramedic. Nothing I post should be construed as specific medical advice. If you have a medical problem, see your physician.

    Comment


    • Source: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/sh.../2020011809064
      Wuhan Municipal Health and Health Committee's report on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection
      Published by: Wuhan Municipal Health Commission | Published: 2020-01-18 00:10:55 | Hits: 518

      At 04:00 on January 16, 2020, 3 patients were discharged from the hospital and no new deaths were reported. After comprehensive research and judgment on the clinical manifestations, epidemiological history, and laboratory test results of the national, provincial and municipal expert groups, 4 new cases of pneumonitis infected with new coronavirus have been added in our city. At present, the new cases have been arranged for transfer to Wuhan. All cases were treated at Jinyintan Hospital. All the patients were in stable condition without critical illness. The time of onset of the cases was concentrated from January 5th to 8th. Related epidemiological investigations and search of close contacts were underway.

      In addition, Thailand and Japan each reported a case of pneumonia with a new coronavirus infection from Wuhan. Currently, Thai diagnosed cases are being hospitalized; Japanese diagnosed cases have been discharged. Close contacts in the country are conducting follow-up and medical observations.

      As of now, 45 cases of pneumonitis with new-type coronavirus infection have been reported in our city, 15 cases have been cured and discharged, 5 cases are being treated in severe cases, and 2 cases have died. A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 665 medical observations have been lifted, and 98 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found.

      January 17, 2020

      Comment


      • Notes from teleconference -

        CDC Telebriefing: Update on 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
        What The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will provide an update on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus and proactive actions CDC is taking to be prepared.
        Who Nancy Messonnier, MD, Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Martin Cetron, MD, Director, Division of Global Migration and Quarantine
        When Friday, January 17, at 1:00 p.m. ET

        .........


        NM : This is a serious situation. Current risk to general public is low. On Dec. 30th China reported first illness. While some ill people have a contact to the seafood market, some limited human-to-human seems to be occuring. There are 45 cases in Wuhan, China, with 2 deaths announced so far. Working on a refined diagnostic test. Thinks we will see more cases all around the world as the testing becomes more efficient. Likely to see a case in the U.S.

        MC: Screening to start at 3 US airports: SFO, JFK, LAX. SFO and JFK have direct flights from Wuhan. LAX does not have direct flight but receives many connecting flights from Wuhan. SFO and JFK have 3 full planes a week from Wuhan. Symptom based screenings at airports, including temperature check. People who are deemed to need more screening may be moved to a triage center. Safe transportation to the center using standard CDC guidelines. Apparently no exit screening at Wuhan - maybe starting today.

        NM: Early in investigation. Things are evolving. Stay tuned....



        From: "Media@cdc.gov (CDC)" <sohco@CDC.GOV>
        To: MMWR-MEDIA@LISTSERV.CDC.GOV
        Subject: Press Release: Public Health Screening to Begin at 3 U.S. Airports for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (=?Windows-1252?Q?=932019-nCoV=94=29?=
        Date: Jan 17, 2020 12:43 PM

        Press Release

        Embargoed until 2:00 pm
        Friday, January 17, 2020

        Contact: CDC Media Relations
        (404) 639-3286
        Public Health Screening to Begin at 3 U.S. Airports
        for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (“2019-nCoV”)

        The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will implement enhanced health screenings to detect ill travelers traveling to the United States on direct or connecting flights from Wuhan, China. This activity is in response to an outbreak in China caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (2019 nCoV), with exported cases to Thailand and Japan.

        Starting January 17, 2020, travelers from Wuhan to the United States will undergo entry screening for symptoms associated with 2019-nCoV at three U.S. airports that receive most of the travelers from Wuhan, China: San Francisco (SFO), New York (JFK), and Los Angeles (LAX) airports.

        “To further protect the health of the American public during the emergence of this novel coronavirus, CDC is beginning entry screening at three ports of entry. Investigations into this novel coronavirus are ongoing and we are monitoring and responding to this evolving situation,” said Martin Cetron, M.D., Director of CDC’s Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.

        Based on current information, the risk from 2019-nCoV to the American public is currently deemed to be low. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

        Entry screening is part of a layered approach used with other public health measures already in place to detect arriving travelers who are sick (such as detection and reporting of ill travelers by airlines during travel and referral of ill travelers arriving at a US port of entry by CBP) to slow and reduce the spread of any disease into the United States.

        CDC is deploying about 100 additional staff to the three airports (SFO, JFK, and LAX) to supplement existing staff at CDC quarantine stations located at those airports.

        CDC is actively monitoring this situation for pertinent information about the source of outbreak, and risk for further spread through person-to-person or animal-to-person transmission. CDC may adjust screening procedures and other response activities as this outbreak investigation continues and more is learned about the newly emerging virus. Entry screening alone is not a guarantee against the possible importation of this new virus but is an important public health tool during periods of uncertainty and part of a multilayered government response strategy. As new information emerges, CDC will reassess entry screening measures and could scale activities up or down accordingly.

        On Jan. 11, 2020, CDC updated a Level 1 Travel Health Notice (“practice usual precautions”) for travelers to Wuhan City and an updated Health Alert to health care professionals and public health partners with new and updated guidance is forthcoming.

        China health officials report that most of the patients infected with 2019-nCoV have had exposure to a large market where live animals were present, suggesting this is a novel virus that has jumped the species barrier to infect people. Chinese authorities additionally report that several hundred health care workers caring for outbreak patients are being monitored and no spread of this virus from patients to health care workers has been seen. They report no sustained spread of this virus in the community, however there are indications that some limited person-to-person spread may have occurred. CDC is responding to this outbreak out of an abundance of caution, ready to detect people infected with 2019-CoV.

        For the latest information on the outbreak, visit CDC’s Novel Coronavirus 2019 website.
        Last edited by sharon sanders; January 18th, 2020, 09:37 AM. Reason: added top sentences for clarification

        Comment


        • Translation Google

          Wuhan pneumonia 丨 Hong Kong University experts: track down the source of infection and strengthen airport control

          2020-01-17 11:47 Sing Tao Global Network

          News from Sing Tao Global Network : Dagong Wenhui reported that a new case of death of a new coronavirus infection in Wuhan has increased the overall death to two people. He Bailiang, director of the Center for Infection and Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, said on the 17th that the current epidemic is definitely not over...
          ...
          Since the two deaths were elderly people over 60 years old, He Bailiang said that the elderly are prone to long-term illnesses. Once the infections cause complications, the chance of death will be much higher. Based on SARS experience that year, the mortality rate in Hong Kong for people aged 60 or above reached 52%, which is higher than about 3% to 6% for the 30-40 age group.

          http://news.stnn.cc/hongkong/2020/0117/709350.shtml
          "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
          -Nelson Mandela

          Comment


          • Translation Google

            Hong Kong single day increase 4 suspected cases China incomplete information on Wuhan pneumonia

            7 hours ago
            ...
            Guo Jiaqi, a member of the Hong Kong Legislative Council, believes that the Wuhan case has been transmitted overseas, but there are no confirmed cases in other provinces and cities in China. It is unreasonable in epidemiology. Is it more than going to other cities in China? "He pointed out that China has not announced whether other provinces and cities will also detect the new coronavirus. Even patients with symptoms such as pneumonia cannot be detected without relevant tests.

            Guo Jiaqi said that during the initial SARS outbreak in China in 2003, SARS cases occurred in more than one city in Guangdong Province, because the SARS coronavirus game was sold in different cities, and people in different cities also became infected after being exposed to the game.

            Now the new type of coronavirus is likely to be transmitted by market game, and the game with virus may also be supplied to other provinces and cities. In addition, the new type of coronavirus does not rule out that it can be transmitted to a limited number of people. Wuhan has exported cases to Thailand and Japan. There are no confirmed cases of new coronavirus in other cities or other provinces and cities in China. "It is difficult to explain scientifically and medically." "Thailand and Japan have it. Opportunities for recruitment in other provinces and cities should be higher. People from Wuhan to other provinces and cities still go to Thailand." More in Japan? ". Guo said that no cases of new coronavirus have been diagnosed in other provinces and cities in China. It may be that the required tests have not been performed, and "you will not know if you don't."

            He Bailiang, director of the University of Hong Kong's Infection and Infectious Diseases Center, said on his Facebook that during the early SARS outbreak in China, there were multiple sources of animal-to-human transmission. Early SARS cases, that is, cases that occurred in Guangdong Province from November 16, 2002 to January 31, 2003, of which 39% were food managers, including animal slaughter workers; and Foshan, Jiangmen, Zhongshan, Guangzhou, Shenzhen The first cases that occurred in cities such as Zhaoqing and Zhaoqing were mutual ignorance and no history of contact with each other, indicating that early SARS cases may be transmitted from multiple sources, from wild animals in traditional fresh markets or restaurants, or from invisible patients that are mildly ill, and Infected in undiagnosed patients.

            According to the experience of SARS in Hong Kong that year, the mortality rate increases with age. The mortality rate for patients aged 65 or above reaches 52%, only 15% for those aged 45 to 64, and only 6% for those aged 25 to 44. It is reasonable to believe that new coronaviruses will also A similar situation occurred. Xu Shuchang, director of the Department of Internal Medicine and Pharmacotherapy at the Chinese University, said that older and long-term patients would increase the risk of death, and the two patients also had these two elements.
            ...

            https://tw.appledaily.com/internatio...LII6RO4PRVFJA/
            "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
            -Nelson Mandela

            Comment


            • Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...found-shenzhen

              China coronavirus: at least three suspected cases found in Shenzhen, Shanghai, sources say

              Two people said to be in quarantine at a specialist hospital in Shenzhen and a third being monitored in Shanghai, but authorities decline to comment
              Wuhan health commission confirms four new cases in city where outbreak thought to have started

              SCMP
              Josephine Ma and Elizabeth Cheung
              Published: 6:23pm, 18 Jan, 2020
              Updated: 6:39pm, 18 Jan, 2020

              At least three suspected cases of the newly discovered coronavirus
              have been reported in Chinese cities outside Wuhan – the epicentre of the outbreak – according to sources with knowledge of the matter, raising concerns about the continued spread of the disease.

              ...three separate sources have told the South China Morning Post that at least two suspected cases have been reported in the south China city of Shenzhen, and a third in Shanghai, in the east of the country.

              The two people in Shenzhen are currently in quarantine at the Third People’s Hospital, which specialises in the treatment of infectious diseases, the sources said.

              A medical source said a person suspected of having been infected was being treated in Shanghai, but did not elaborate...

              ...A spokesman for the Shenzhen health authority said he had no comment beyond what had already been made public by the government.

              The Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre in Jinshan, which specialises in the treatment of infectious diseases, also declined to comment...

              Comment


              • Source: http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/sh.../2020011809065


                Google translation:

                About the situation of prevention and control of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection in our city
                (January 17, 2020)
                Published by: Wuhan Municipal Commission of Health and Health | Published: 2020-01-18 00:13:26



                I. About the new cases

                On January 16, 2020, experts from the provinces and municipalities newly identified 4 cases of pneumonia with a new type of coronavirus infection based on the clinical manifestations, epidemiological history of the patients, and the results detected by the diagnostic kit issued by the country. All 4 patients were male. They developed symptoms from January 5 to 8, 2020, and were admitted to the hospital from January 8 to 13 for treatment. After treatment, the symptoms improved and the condition is stable. They have been transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for centralized treatment. . Epidemiological investigations of the four new cases are underway, and close contacts are also being tracked.

                Second, the main measures for the prevention and control of the recent epidemic

                Further do a good job in the management of pre-inspection and triage of medical institutions at all levels and early diagnosis, and early detection, isolation and early treatment. The sanitary killing of the South China Seafood Wholesale Market, other agricultural fairs in the city and the living environment of related hospitals, patients and close contacts will continue. Carry out a patriotic health campaign with the theme of “renovating the environment, cleaning homes, and welcoming the festival” to promote a healthy lifestyle.

                3. Related situation of close contacts of confirmed cases abroad

                Seventeen close contacts of the first confirmed patient in Thailand were tracked, all of which were included in medical observations. One of them had symptoms of low fever and mild cough, and has been transferred to designated hospitals for treatment. Personnel information, tracking of close family contacts is underway; 4 cases of close family contacts have been traced to patients with confirmed cases notified in Japan, all of which have been included in medical observation.



                Comment


                • Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ested-negative

                  New suspected Wuhan virus case in Singapore, remaining 5 have tested negative
                  Published 42 min ago

                  SINGAPORE - A 52-year-old man with pneumonia who had travelled to Wuhan has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, bringing the number of suspected cases identified here of a mysterious viral illness to six.

                  His condition was stable and he had been isolated as a precautionary measure, said the Ministry of Health on Saturday (Jan 18), noting that he had not visited the Huanan seafood wholesale market associated with the cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan.

                  The other five patients have been cleared of having the virus...

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
                    Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ested-negative

                    New suspected Wuhan virus case in Singapore, remaining 5 have tested negative
                    Published 42 min ago

                    SINGAPORE - A 52-year-old man with pneumonia who had travelled to Wuhan has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, bringing the number of suspected cases identified here of a mysterious viral illness to six.

                    His condition was stable and he had been isolated as a precautionary measure, said the Ministry of Health on Saturday (Jan 18), noting that he had not visited the Huanan seafood wholesale market associated with the cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan.

                    The other five patients have been cleared of having the virus...
                    MoH report:


                    18TH JAN 2020


                    As of 10am, 18 January 2020, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has been notified of a 52 year-old male Singapore resident with pneumonia, who had travel history to Wuhan. He has been admitted for further assessment and treatment, and isolated as a precautionary measure. His condition is stable.

                    The suspect case did not visit the Huanan seafood wholesale market associated with the cluster of pneumonia in Wuhan.


                    Update on two suspect cases reported on 17 January

                    Epidemiological investigations, clinical assessment and laboratory test results from the two suspect cases reported on 17 January 2020 involving a 64 year-old male Chinese national and a 61 year-old female Singapore resident, both with pneumonia and travel history to Wuhan, have found that the cases are not linked to the novel Coronavirus pneumonia cluster in Wuhan. The two cases have also tested negative for coronavirus.

                    MOH will continue to monitor the situation closely. As medical practitioners are on the lookout for cases with pneumonia who have recently returned from Wuhan, Singapore is likely to see more suspect cases that will need to be investigated for possible links to the Wuhan cluster.

                    We urge the public to remain vigilant and to adopt good personal hygiene practices at all times. Travellers to Wuhan should monitor their health closely and seek medical attention promptly if they feel unwell, and also inform their doctor of their travel history.

                    https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highligh...n-wuhan-18-jan

                    Comment


                    • Translation Google

                      He Bailiang worried that more people infected with pneumonia in Wuhan might be killed with the Spring Festival

                      January 18, 2020 10:19

                      Experts predict that Hong Kong is a high-risk city for spreading pneumonia in Wuhan, and urged that a severe epidemic screening be implemented at the airport as soon as possible.

                      The pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan has not subsided, and experts at Imperial College London in the UK have estimated that there are as many as 1,700 people infected in Wuhan. He Bailiang, director of the Center for Infection and Infectious Diseases of the University of Hong Kong, said that although there are uncertainties in the calculations and the actual difference may be quite large, as a reference, it can be known that the actual number of infections is more than the number of confirmed patients. The "red light" has been turned on. As the Spring Festival in the Mainland begins, it will sooner or later come to Hong Kong.

                      He said that infection cases still occurred after the South China seafood market was closed. Some people even traveled to other places, including Thailand and Japan. Some of the infection cases have never been to the seafood market that was alleged to be the source. He believes that there is a great chance that Wuhan has more than one source of transmission, and there are reasons to suspect that the virus can be transmitted from person to person, even to a limited extent.

                      He continued that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has implemented measures for Wuhan pneumonia, including at major airports in the United States, to implement strict measures for incoming passengers from Wuhan, such as requiring passengers to take body temperature and make health declarations, it is strongly recommended that the Hong Kong government immediately implement the same Measures.

                      He also cited the statistics of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for the first quarter of 2018, stating that the top three most popular cities for Wuhan passengers to travel by air are Bangkok, Hong Kong and Tokyo, and the confirmed cases in Thailand and Japan are Bangkok and Tokyo. The airport found that it has reason to believe that Hong Kong is a high-risk city, and urged the Hong Kong government to implement rigorous epidemic screening at the airport as soon as possible.

                      https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/202...00822_001.html
                      "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                      -Nelson Mandela

                      Comment


                      • Translation Google

                        2020-01-18 14:05:14

                        Beijing News reporter: Xu Wen editor: Li Guojun

                        CDC: The pathogen causing Wuhan pneumonia epidemic is not SARS virus

                        Current investigations show that the pathogen of Wuhan pneumonia epidemic is a new type of coronavirus, which has weaker human-to-human transmission and pathogenicity than SARS.

                        The Beijing News (Reporter Xu Wen) For the past few days, the spread of the pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan caused by the new SARS virus has spread on the Internet. China CDC WeChat publicly released a popular science article "On Wuhan Viral Pneumonia, these 5 rumors, don't believe it!" "The article mentioned that the pathogen that caused the viral pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan was not the SARS virus. Current investigations have shown that the virus's human-to-human transmission capacity and pathogenicity are weaker than SARS.

                        Rumor 1:

                        Mysterious disease outbreak in Wuhan, China has been confirmed as new SARS virus

                        True: The pathogen causing Wuhan's "mysterious disease" has been identified as a new coronavirus, not a SARS virus.

                        Rumor 2:

                        Wuhan new virus is 73% similar to SARS; Wuhan new coronavirus gene sequence is 80% similar to SARS virus; Wuhan pneumonia and SARS are up to 90% similar

                        True: The similarity of viruses' genes is not the same as the pathogenicity of the viruses. Although the new coronavirus and SARS and MERS coronaviruses belong to the same family of coronaviruses, genetic evolution analysis shows that they belong to different subtypes Group branch, it is not SARS or MERS virus, their virus gene sequences are quite different.

                        Rumor 3:

                        There have been several cases in our hospital and they have been closely isolated. Very scary, it is said that 80% is SARS.

                        True: Coronaviruses are very common in nature, and they are divided into many types. The harm caused by them is also very different. The pathogen that caused the viral pneumonia in Wuhan is a new coronavirus, which is different from SARS virus.

                        Isolation and treatment of infectious disease patients is a requirement of the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases", which is responsible for both patients and public health. As of the early morning of January 18, a total of 45 cases have been reported, all of which were treated in isolation at designated hospitals in Wuhan.

                        Rumor 4:

                        SARS has not disappeared, and has been parasitic in bats.

                        Correct: In 2002-2003, the SARS epidemic broke out in China. In the past ten years, no SARS cases have been found in our country, and no human SARS coronavirus has been detected in bats.

                        Rumor 5: Wuhan pneumonia virus is a long-standing SARS corona virus

                        Correct: The "Corona virus" circulated on the Internet is transliterated by coronavirus. The pathogen causing Wuhan's viral pneumonia epidemic is a new coronavirus, not a SARS virus. Current investigations have shown that the virus's human-to-human transmission capacity and pathogenicity are weaker than SARS.

                        http://www.bjnews.com.cn/news/2020/01/18/676172.html


                        ------------------------------------------------
                        Chinese CDC:

                        Regarding Wuhan Viral Pneumonia, don't believe these 5 rumors!
                        2020-01-18

                        http://www.chinacdc.cn/yyrdgz/202001...18_211265.html
                        "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                        -Nelson Mandela

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
                          Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...found-shenzhen

                          China coronavirus: at least three suspected cases found in Shenzhen, Shanghai, sources say

                          Two people said to be in quarantine at a specialist hospital in Shenzhen and a third being monitored in Shanghai, but authorities decline to comment
                          Wuhan health commission confirms four new cases in city where outbreak thought to have started

                          SCMP
                          Josephine Ma and Elizabeth Cheung
                          Published: 6:23pm, 18 Jan, 2020
                          Updated: 6:39pm, 18 Jan, 2020

                          At least three suspected cases of the newly discovered coronavirus
                          have been reported in Chinese cities outside Wuhan – the epicentre of the outbreak – according to sources with knowledge of the matter, raising concerns about the continued spread of the disease.

                          ...three separate sources have told the South China Morning Post that at least two suspected cases have been reported in the south China city of Shenzhen, and a third in Shanghai, in the east of the country.

                          The two people in Shenzhen are currently in quarantine at the Third People’s Hospital, which specialises in the treatment of infectious diseases, the sources said.

                          A medical source said a person suspected of having been infected was being treated in Shanghai, but did not elaborate...

                          ...A spokesman for the Shenzhen health authority said he had no comment beyond what had already been made public by the government.

                          The Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre in Jinshan, which specialises in the treatment of infectious diseases, also declined to comment...

                          Please see these threads on Shanghai and Shenzhen:


                          China - The number of pediatric outpatients in clinics has surged across the country including: Qingdao, Nanjing, Ningbo, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan - flu season - December 31, 2019

                          China - Flu cases have increased significantly in December in Shanghai, mostly strains B Victoria and H3N2 - December 17, 2019

                          China - Two hospitals in Shanghai are crowded with respiratory patients, mostly children with pneumonia - November 11, 2019

                          China - Pediatric hospitals in Shanghai seeing a 5% - 8% increase in patients over last year - mostly ophthalmology, ENT, stomatology and dermatology - July 17, 2019

                          China - Store closes after 24 people hospitalized for breathing problems, nausea, dizziness, vomiting - Zhonghua Xinlu market, Shanghai - June 23, 2019

                          --------------------------


                          China - Teacher, 41, hospitalized with severe pneumonia, renal failure, liver damage - officials say not new coronavirus - Shenzhen, Guangdong province - January 12, 2020
                          Last edited by sharon sanders; January 18th, 2020, 11:08 AM.

                          Comment


                          • Health Alert Update – Novel Coronavirus in China

                            Home | News & Events | Health Alert Update – Novel Coronavirus in China Location: Wuhan, Hankou area

                            Event: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued a Watch Level 1 Alert (be aware and practice usual precautions) for an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China, preliminarily identified to be caused by a novel (new) coronavirus.

                            Travelers to Wuhan should:
                            • Avoid animals (alive or dead), animal markets, and products that come from animals (such as uncooked meat).
                            • Avoid contact with sick people.
                            • Wash hands often with soap and water.
                            • Consult the CDC Website for the most up-to-date information regarding enhanced screening procedures.

                            If you have traveled to Wuhan and feel sick, you should
                            • Stay home. Except for seeking medical care, avoid contact with others.
                            • Don’t travel while sick.
                            • Seek medical care right away. Before you go to a doctor’s office or emergency room, call ahead and tell the doctor about your recent travel and your symptoms.
                            • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.

                            Please see https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices...onavirus-china and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/nove...irus-2019.html for further updates.
                            By U.S. Mission China | 18 January, 2020 |https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn...us-in-china-2/
                            CSI:WORLD http://swineflumagazine.blogspot.com/

                            treyfish2004@yahoo.com

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                            • Translation Google

                              [Wuhan Pneumonia] "South China Morning Post": Shenzhen and Shanghai found at least 3 suspected cases

                              Instant international
                              Written by: Ling Junxian
                              2020-01-18 19:07
                              Last updated:2020-01-18 20:26

                              Unknown pneumonia has broken out in Wuhan since the end of 2019. Hong Kong media quoted people familiar with the matter on January 18 that at least three suspected cases of new coronavirus infection were found in Chinese cities outside Wuhan, two of whom were in Shenzhen and one was in Shanghai. The Center for Health Protection pointed out that no relevant notification from the National Health and Health Commission has been received so far.

                              The South China Morning Post quoted three different sources as saying that at least two suspected cases were being isolated at Shenzhen Third People's Hospital, and one was under observation in Shanghai, but some government departments declined to comment on the news.

                              The report quoted medical experts as saying that to be classified as a suspicious case, the patient's symptoms must be similar to those of patients with the new coronavirus, have recently visited Wuhan, or have close contact with known patients.

                              In response to the inquiry of "Hong Kong 01", the Center for Health Protection of the Department of Health stated that no relevant notification from the National Health and Health Commission has been received so far. The center will continue to maintain contact with the National Health Committee and the World Health Organization to closely monitor the situation.

                              ...
                              https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99...80%8B%E6%A1%88
                              "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                              -Nelson Mandela

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                              • Translation Google

                                Wuhan Municipal Commission of Health and Health on pneumonia of new coronavirus infection

                                Issuing authority: Wuhan City health committee | Published: 2020-01-19 00:43:34 | Hits: 607


                                At 04:00 on January 17, 2020, 4 patients were cured and discharged, with 17 new cases and no deaths.

                                Analysis of the epidemiological data of the previously released cases of pneumonitis infected by the new coronavirus found that some cases had no history of contact with the South China Seafood Wholesale Market. On the basis of standardizing pre-screening triage and fever diagnosis, optimized test kits were used to sample and monitor unidentified pneumonia cases for fever diagnosis and isolation in the city, and 17 new types of coronavirus positive were detected. After comprehensive research and judgment by clinical experts, 17 cases were confirmed as confirmed cases , and all were treated in Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital and related designated hospitals . Of the 17 newly diagnosed cases, 3 were severe cases. The next step will continue to carry out the detection of suspected cases in the city.

                                As of 24:00 on January 17, 62 cases of pneumonitis with new coronavirus infection have been reported in our city, 19 cases have been cured and discharged, 8 cases are being treated in severe cases, and 2 cases have died. The remaining patients are in stable condition. Institution receives isolation treatment. A total of 763 close contacts have been tracked, 681 medical observations have been lifted, and 82 people are still receiving medical observations. Among the close contacts, no related cases were found. Epidemiological investigations of new cases and follow-up investigations of close contacts are ongoing.


                                January 18, 2020

                                http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/sh.../2020011909074


                                --------------------------------------------------------------
                                About the new cases of pneumonia of new coronavirus infection in Wuhan

                                (January 18, 2020)

                                Issuing authority: Wuhan City health committee | Published: 2020-01-19 00:43:40 | Hits: 1048


                                On January 17, 2020, national and provincial experts screened some cases of unexplained pneumonia that were screened by community health service centers in the city, and found and treated in various hospitals, based on their clinical manifestations, epidemiological history, and optimization. The positive results of the novel coronavirus nucleic acid detected by the subsequent detection kit were comprehensively judged, and 17 cases of pneumonia cases with new coronavirus infection were newly identified.

                                Of the 17 patients, 12 were males and 5 were females; 9 were under 60 years of age, 8 were 60 years of age and older, the youngest was 30 years old and the oldest was 79 years old; the onset date was before January 13, 2020; first symptoms Fever, cough, or fever with cough; 3 cases were severe, and the rest were stable. Except for 2 cases of severe illness, which was temporarily unsuitable for transfer, the remaining 15 cases had been transferred to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital for centralized treatment.

                                The epidemiological investigation of 17 new cases is in-depth, and close contacts are also being tracked.

                                In the next step, the city will continue to expand the search scope, identify suspected cases, and conduct sampling tests.

                                http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/sh.../2020011909075
                                "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
                                -Nelson Mandela

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