Sci Adv . SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

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Sci Adv


. 2022 Jan 28;8(4):eabf9868.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868. Epub 2022 Jan 26.
SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three U.S. states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics


Nathan B Wikle ¹ , Thu Nguyen-Anh Tran ² , Bethany Gentilesco ³ , Scott M Leighow ⁴ , Emmy Albert ⁵ , Emily R Strong ¹ , Karel Brinda ^{6 7} , Haider Inam ⁴ , Fuhan Yang ² , Sajid Hossain ⁸ , Philip Chan ³ , William P Hanage ⁶ , Maria Messick ⁹ , Justin R Pritchard ⁴ , Ephraim M Hanks ¹ , Maciej F Boni ^{2 10}



Affiliations

• PMID: 35080987
• DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf9868

Abstract

State-level reopenings in late spring 2020 facilitated the resurgence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states-Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania-that had successful reopenings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using 11 daily data streams, we show that from spring to summer, the epidemic shifted from an older to a younger age profile and that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Clinical case management improved from spring to summer, resulting in fewer critical care admissions and lower infection fatality rate. Attack rate estimates through 31 August 2020 are 6.2% [95% credible interval (CI), 5.7 to 6.8%] of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 6.7% (95% CI, 5.4 to 7.6%) in Massachusetts, and 2.7% (95% CI, 2.5 to 3.1%) in Pennsylvania.