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Science. 2020 Apr 29. pii: eabb8001. doi: 10.1126/science.abb8001. [Epub ahead of print]
Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Zhang J1, Litvinova M2, Liang Y1, Wang Y1, Wang W1, Zhao S3, Wu Q1, Merler S4, Viboud C5, Vespignani A6,2, Ajelli M#7, Yu H#8.
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Abstract
Intense non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province. Daily contacts were reduced 7-8-fold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0-14 years are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults 15-64 years of age (odd ratio 0.34, 95%CI 0.24-0.49), while in contrast, individuals over 65 years are more susceptible to infection (odd ratio 1.47, 95%CI: 1.12-1.92). Based on these data, we build a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40-60% and delay the epidemic.
Copyright ? 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
PMID:32350060DOI:10.1126/science.abb8001