J Public Health (Oxf). 2020 Mar 27. pii: fdaa046. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa046. [Epub ahead of print]
Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study.
Zhao K1, Long C2, Wang Y1, Zeng T3, Fu X1.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.
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KEYWORDS:
COVID-19; COVID-19 resurgence; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; risk assessment; work resuming
PMID:32219398DOI:10.1093/pubmed/fdaa046