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Am J Infect Control
. 2025 Nov 28:S0196-6553(25)00735-7.
doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2025.11.022. Online ahead of print. Mathematical Model for Nosocomial Coronavirus Infection Disease 2019 Transmission and Patient Isolation in Hospital Wards: A Modeling Study
Yasuhiro Umekage 1 , Ryota Shigaki 2 , Ryotaro Kida 2 , Ryohei Yoshida 3 , Yoshinori Minami 2 , Yoshinobu Ohsaki 3 , Takaaki Sasaki 2
Affiliations
Background: Considering the isolation of infected patients and proportion of critically ill individuals requiring single-room management is crucial when implementing public health measures during nosocomial outbreaks such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using a mathematical model, we aimed to assess the level of hospital occupancy restriction required for the adequate isolation of infected and exposed patients while providing for critically ill patients requiring single-room management.
Methods: Patients were categorized into four groups: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. We modeled a hospital ward with mixed room types, incorporating critically ill patients and sporadic unidentified infections, to evaluate isolation feasibility through simulations.
Results: Simulation results showed that patient isolation became difficult under high occupancy conditions. The feasibility was also affected by infection control strategies, such as discharging infected or exposed patients and isolating exposed individuals in single rooms.
Discussion: Higher occupancy increases the risk of failed isolation measures, potentially promoting in-hospital transmission. However, this model does not incorporate long-distance airborne transmission or the effects of ventilation, and COVID-19 can spread via aerosols.
Conclusions: This model could be a valuable reference for determining appropriate hospital occupancy rates to ensure effective infection control during nosocomial outbreaks.
Availability of data and materials: The simulation code and associated materials used in this study are publicly available on Zenodo at the following link: https://zenodo.org/records/15330933.
Keywords: COVID-19; hospital occupancy; mathematical model; nosocomial infection.
. 2025 Nov 28:S0196-6553(25)00735-7.
doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2025.11.022. Online ahead of print. Mathematical Model for Nosocomial Coronavirus Infection Disease 2019 Transmission and Patient Isolation in Hospital Wards: A Modeling Study
Yasuhiro Umekage 1 , Ryota Shigaki 2 , Ryotaro Kida 2 , Ryohei Yoshida 3 , Yoshinori Minami 2 , Yoshinobu Ohsaki 3 , Takaaki Sasaki 2
Affiliations
- PMID: 41319810
- DOI: 10.1016/j.ajic.2025.11.022
Background: Considering the isolation of infected patients and proportion of critically ill individuals requiring single-room management is crucial when implementing public health measures during nosocomial outbreaks such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using a mathematical model, we aimed to assess the level of hospital occupancy restriction required for the adequate isolation of infected and exposed patients while providing for critically ill patients requiring single-room management.
Methods: Patients were categorized into four groups: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered. We modeled a hospital ward with mixed room types, incorporating critically ill patients and sporadic unidentified infections, to evaluate isolation feasibility through simulations.
Results: Simulation results showed that patient isolation became difficult under high occupancy conditions. The feasibility was also affected by infection control strategies, such as discharging infected or exposed patients and isolating exposed individuals in single rooms.
Discussion: Higher occupancy increases the risk of failed isolation measures, potentially promoting in-hospital transmission. However, this model does not incorporate long-distance airborne transmission or the effects of ventilation, and COVID-19 can spread via aerosols.
Conclusions: This model could be a valuable reference for determining appropriate hospital occupancy rates to ensure effective infection control during nosocomial outbreaks.
Availability of data and materials: The simulation code and associated materials used in this study are publicly available on Zenodo at the following link: https://zenodo.org/records/15330933.
Keywords: COVID-19; hospital occupancy; mathematical model; nosocomial infection.