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BMC Public Health
. 2025 Mar 24;25(1):1108.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22306-1. The use of wastewater surveillance to estimate SARS-CoV-2 fecal viral shedding pattern and identify time periods with intensified transmission
Wan Yang 1 , Enoma Omoregie 2 , Aaron Olsen 2 , Elizabeth A Watts 2 3 , Hilary Parton 2 , Ellen Lee 2
Affiliations
Background: Wastewater-based surveillance is an important tool for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it remains challenging to translate wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load to infection number, due to unclear shedding patterns in wastewater and potential differences between variants.
Objectives: We utilized comprehensive wastewater surveillance data and estimates of infection prevalence (i.e., the source of the viral shedding) available for New York City (NYC) to characterize SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding pattern over multiple COVID-19 waves.
Methods: We collected SARS-CoV-2 viral wastewater measurements in NYC during August 31, 2020 - August 29, 2023 (N = 3794 samples). Combining with estimates of infection prevalence (number of infectious individuals including those not detected as cases), we estimated the time-lag, duration, and per-infection fecal shedding rate for the ancestral/Iota, Delta, and Omicron variants, separately. We also developed a procedure to identify occasions with intensified transmission.
Results: Models suggested fecal viral shedding likely starts around the same time as and lasts slightly longer than respiratory tract shedding. Estimated fecal viral shedding rate was highest during the ancestral/Iota variant wave, at 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35 - 1.53) billion RNA copies in wastewater per day per infection (measured by RT-qPCR), and decreased by around 20% and 50-60% during the Delta wave and Omicron period, respectively. We identified around 200 occasions during which the wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load exceeded the expected level in any of the city's 14 sewersheds. These anomalies disproportionally occurred during late January, late April-early May, early August, and from late-November to late-December, with frequencies exceeding the expectation assuming random occurrence (P < 0.05; bootstrapping test).
Discussion: These estimates may be useful in understanding changes in underlying infection rate and help quantify changes in COVID-19 transmission and severity over time. We have also demonstrated that wastewater surveillance data can support the identification of time periods with potentially intensified transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19; Transmission; Variant; Viral shedding pattern; Wastewater surveillance.
. 2025 Mar 24;25(1):1108.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-025-22306-1. The use of wastewater surveillance to estimate SARS-CoV-2 fecal viral shedding pattern and identify time periods with intensified transmission
Wan Yang 1 , Enoma Omoregie 2 , Aaron Olsen 2 , Elizabeth A Watts 2 3 , Hilary Parton 2 , Ellen Lee 2
Affiliations
- PMID: 40128707
- PMCID: PMC11931833
- DOI: 10.1186/s12889-025-22306-1
Background: Wastewater-based surveillance is an important tool for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it remains challenging to translate wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load to infection number, due to unclear shedding patterns in wastewater and potential differences between variants.
Objectives: We utilized comprehensive wastewater surveillance data and estimates of infection prevalence (i.e., the source of the viral shedding) available for New York City (NYC) to characterize SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding pattern over multiple COVID-19 waves.
Methods: We collected SARS-CoV-2 viral wastewater measurements in NYC during August 31, 2020 - August 29, 2023 (N = 3794 samples). Combining with estimates of infection prevalence (number of infectious individuals including those not detected as cases), we estimated the time-lag, duration, and per-infection fecal shedding rate for the ancestral/Iota, Delta, and Omicron variants, separately. We also developed a procedure to identify occasions with intensified transmission.
Results: Models suggested fecal viral shedding likely starts around the same time as and lasts slightly longer than respiratory tract shedding. Estimated fecal viral shedding rate was highest during the ancestral/Iota variant wave, at 1.44 (95% CI: 1.35 - 1.53) billion RNA copies in wastewater per day per infection (measured by RT-qPCR), and decreased by around 20% and 50-60% during the Delta wave and Omicron period, respectively. We identified around 200 occasions during which the wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral load exceeded the expected level in any of the city's 14 sewersheds. These anomalies disproportionally occurred during late January, late April-early May, early August, and from late-November to late-December, with frequencies exceeding the expectation assuming random occurrence (P < 0.05; bootstrapping test).
Discussion: These estimates may be useful in understanding changes in underlying infection rate and help quantify changes in COVID-19 transmission and severity over time. We have also demonstrated that wastewater surveillance data can support the identification of time periods with potentially intensified transmission.
Keywords: COVID-19; Transmission; Variant; Viral shedding pattern; Wastewater surveillance.