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Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 case cluster study (Gangelt municipality)

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  • Preliminary results and conclusions of the COVID-19 case cluster study (Gangelt municipality)

    google translated

    Prof. Dr. Hendrik Streeck (Institute of Virology)
    Prof. Dr. Gunther Hartmann (Institute for Clinical Chemistry and Clinical
    Pharmacology, spokesman for the Cluster of Excellence ImmunoSensation2
    Prof. Dr. Martin Exner (Institute for Hygiene and Public Health)
    Prof. Dr. Matthias Schmid (Institute for Medical Biometry, Computer Science and
    University Hospital Bonn, Bonn, April 9, 2020


    The community of Gangelt is one of the strongest in Germany
    COVID19 affected places in Germany. It is believed that
    Infection events due to a carnival meeting on February 15, 2020
    is because several people tested SARSCoV2 positive after this session
    were. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session is currently underway
    examined more closely. It became a representative sample from the community
    Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) moved to the district of Heinsberg. The
    World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol that varies depending on
    expected prevalence randomly 100 to 300 households are examined.
    This sample was coordinated with its representativeness with Prof. Manfred
    G?llner (Forsa).


    The goal of the study is to keep the level of going through and still
    SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected) taking place in the community
    Gait to determine. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2
    Immunity can be determined.


    A form letter was sent to approximately 600 households. Overall took
    approx. 1000 inhabitants from approx. 400 households took part in the study. There were questionnaires
    collected, throat swabs taken and blood for the presence of antibodies (IgG,
    IgA) tested. The intermediate results and go into this first evaluation
    Inferences from approx. 500 people.

    Preliminary result:

    An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the
    Individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method
    Infection on. The infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was
    a total of approx. 15%. The lethality (case fatality rate) based on the total number of
    Infected in the community of Gangelt is based on the preliminary data from this
    Study about 0.37%. Currently in Germany from Johns-Hopkins University
    calculated lethality is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. The
    Mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.

    Preliminary conclusion: the 5- calculated by Johns-Hopkins University
    The mortality rate, which is several times higher than in this study in Gangelt, is explained by
    different reference size of the infected. This study is getting going
    all infected people in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and
    mild gradients. Gangelt is the proportion of the population that is already
    Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has developed approximately 15%.
    This means that yourself
    15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer be infected with SARS-CoV-2, and
    the process is already in place until herd immunity is reached. This
    15 percent of the population reduces the speed (net number of reproductions R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of
    SARS-CoV-2 accordingly.

    By adhering to stringent hygiene measures, it can be expected that the
    Virus concentration during an infection event of a person can be reduced so far
    may result in less severe illness with simultaneous training of immunity. These favorable conditions are with
    an exceptional outbreak event (superspreading event, e.g. carnival session, apres ski bar Ischgl) is not possible. With hygiene measures are thereby
    favorable effects with regard to all-cause mortality can also be expected.

    We therefore strongly recommend the proposed four-phase strategy
    To implement German Society for Hospital Hygiene (DGKH). This
    provides the following model:

    Phase 1: Social quarantine with the aim of containment
    and slowing the pandemic and avoiding overloading the
    critical supply structures, in particular the
    Health care system

    Phase 2: Beginning withdrawal of quarantine with simultaneous
    Ensuring hygienic framework conditions and behavior.

    Phase 3: Removal of the quarantine while maintaining the
    hygienic framework

    Phase 4: State of public life as before the COVID-19 pandemic
    (Status quo ante).

    (DGKH statement can be found here:

    Note: These results are preliminary.
    ?Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights ? that must be our call to arms"
    Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

    ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ ~~~